HP (HPQ)
Information Technology · $25.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0000047217
ahead of 23% of the S&P 500 · #55 of 73 in Information Technology
Next reports on Nov 24, 2026, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.76 in earnings per share.
52-week range $17.56 to $36.23. 22% below its 52-week high and 62% above its low.
The case for HPQ
- Cheap for its growth: 10.4× earnings, where 4% a year of growth plus a 3.8% dividend would justify about 20×.
- Free cash flow of 11.0% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Revenue growing 8.1% year over year.
- Pays a 3.8% dividend while you wait.
- Price/sales of 0.4× is lower than 99% of Information Technology companies.
The case against
- Revenue has shrunk 0.5% a year over five years.
- Owes more than it owns: shareholder equity is −$346M, usually the result of buybacks funded with debt. ROE and price-to-book mean little here.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.79).
- Net margin of 4% is thinner than 92% of Information Technology companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Information Technology companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 88 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 22 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 30 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 51 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 33 |
- Shareholder equity is negative, so return on equity, price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 73 Information Technology companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +8.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | −0.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $55.3B (+3%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.8B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 5% |
| Of profit | 111% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 20% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 5% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 5.2% → 4.6% → 4.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $3.7B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $8.8B |
| Net debt | $5.1B |
| Years to repay | 2.4 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 10.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 20× |
| P/FCF | 9.1× |
| Forward P/E | 9.1× |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.8× |
At 10.4× earnings it trades well below the 20× that 4% a year of growth plus a 3.8% dividend would justify. At 9.1× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from HP's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $55.3B | $53.6B | $53.7B | $62.9B | $63.5B |
| Change on the year | +3% | 0% | −15% | −1% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.7B | $5.8B |
| Of revenue | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 9% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 20.6% | 22.1% | 21.4% | 19.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% |
| Net margin | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 10.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $3.7B | $3.2B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $4.3B |
| Long-term debt | $8.8B | $8.3B | $9.3B | $10.8B | $6.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$5.1B | −$5.0B | −$6.1B | −$7.7B | −$2.1B |
What HP says it does
Overview HP is a global technology leader and creator of solutions that enable people to bring their ideas to life and connect to the things that matter most. Operating in more than 170 countries, HP delivers innovative and sustainable devices, services and subscriptions for personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming and other related technologies. We believe artificial intelligence (“AI”) is playing a critical role in the transformation of how people live and work, and customers are beginning to recognize the benefits in security, speed and cost. Our high-performing product portfolio includes HP’s new line of AI PCs and workstations built with the computing power to enable local AI processing for enhanced performance and features as well as intelligent print features incorporated into our home, office and graphics solutions. Our broad range of security capabilities are designed to protect an increasingly…
Risk factors HPQ lists in its 10-K
- If we cannot successfully execute our strategy and continue to develop, manufacture and market innovative products,
- services and solutions, our business and financial performance may suffer
- We expect the proliferation of AI to have a significant impact on our industry and the markets in which we compete, and the development and use of AI presents competitive, reputational, and liability risks
- We are heavily dependent on third-party suppliers and supply chain issues have adversely affected, and could adversely affect in the future, our financial results
- Working conditions, human rights and materials
- Our business and financial performance could suffer if we do not manage the risks associated with our services businesses properly
- We operate in an intensely competitive industry and competitive pressures could harm our business and financial performance
- If we cannot continue to produce high-quality and secure products and services, our reputation, business and financial performance may suffer
- Third-party claims of IP infringement are commonplace in our industry and may limit or disrupt our ability to sell our products and services
- Our operating results have historically varied and may not be indicative of future results
- If we fail to manage the distribution of our products and services properly, our business and financial performance could suffer
- Our uneven sales cycle makes planning and inventory management difficult and future financial results less predictable
- In order to be successful, we must attract, retain, train, motivate, develop and transition key employees, and failure to do so could seriously harm us
- Our financial performance may suffer if we cannot develop, obtain, license or enforce the intellectual property rights on which our businesses depend
- We may not achieve some or all of the expected benefits of our restructuring and other plans and such plans may adversely affect our business
- We may not be able to execute acquisitions, divestitures and other significant transactions successfully and we may have difficulty or fail to successfully integrate acquired companies
- Our aspirations and disclosures related to environmental and societal matters expose us to risks that could adversely affect our reputation and performance
- Some anti-takeover provisions contained in our certificate of incorporation and bylaws, as well as provisions of Delaware law, could impair a takeover attempt
- Due to the international nature of our business, geopolitical or economic changes or events, uncertainty or other factors could harm our business and financial performance
- Economic weakness and uncertainty is expected to continue to adversely affect demand for our products and services and, as a result, our business and financial performance
- We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates, which could adversely impact our results
- Business disruption events could seriously harm our future revenue, cash flows and financial condition and increase our costs and expenses
- Climate change and associated regulatory and market impacts may have an adverse effect on our business
- Failure to maintain our credit ratings could adversely affect our liquidity, capital position, borrowing costs and access to capital markets, as well as our subscription based and other offerings
- Our debt obligations could adversely affect our business and financial condition
- The amount and frequency of our share repurchases and dividends are affected by a number of factors and may fluctuate
- Ineffective internal controls could impact our business and operating results
- Our business is subject to various federal, state, local and foreign laws and regulations that could adversely affect our business and results of operations and cash flows
- We are subject to risks associated with litigation and regulatory proceedings
- Failure to comply with our customer and partner contracts or government contracting regulations could adversely affect our business and financial performance
- Changes in our tax provisions, adverse tax audits, the adoption of new tax legislation, or exposure to additional tax liabilities could have a material impact on our financial performance