Amgen (AMGN)
Health Care · $252B market cap · SEC CIK 0000318154
ahead of 91% of the S&P 500 · #8 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $5.71 in earnings per share.
52-week range $312.39 to $483.99. 4% below its 52-week high and 49% above its low.
The case for AMGN
- Generated $8.1B of free cash flow in FY2025, 22% of revenue.
- Earns 86% on shareholder equity, a figure flattered by a small equity base.
- 24% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Revenue growing 8.2% year over year.
- Earnings per share up 33.3%.
- Pays a 3.2% dividend while you wait.
The case against
- Long-term debt of $50.0B would take 5 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Priced at 6.5× sales with revenue growing only 8.2%.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 52 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 57 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 87 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 83 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 70 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +8.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +7.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $36.8B (+10%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $8.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 22% |
| Of profit | 105% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 75% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 33% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 12.2% → 21.0% → 24.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $9.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $50.0B |
| Net debt | $40.9B |
| Years to repay | 5.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 26.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 22× |
| P/FCF | 31.1× |
| Forward P/E | 19.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 18.2× |
At 26.8× earnings it trades above the 22× that 6% a year of growth plus a 3.2% dividend would justify. At 31.1× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Amgen's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $36.8B | $33.4B | $28.2B | $26.3B | $26.0B |
| Change on the year | +10% | +19% | +7% | +1% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $8.1B | $10.4B | $7.4B | $8.8B | $8.4B |
| Of revenue | 22% | 31% | 26% | 33% | 32% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 24.7% | 21.7% | 28.0% | 36.3% | 29.4% |
| Net margin | 21.0% | 12.2% | 23.8% | 24.9% | 22.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $9.1B | $12.0B | $10.9B | $7.6B | $8.0B |
| Long-term debt | $50.0B | $56.5B | $63.2B | $37.4B | $33.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$40.9B | −$44.6B | −$52.2B | −$29.7B | −$25.2B |
What Amgen says it does
Amgen Inc. (including its subsidiaries, referred to as “Amgen,” “the Company,” “we,” “our” or “us”) discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers innovative medicines to fight some of the world’s toughest diseases. We focus on areas of high unmet medical need and leverage our expertise to strive for solutions that dramatically improve people’s lives, while also reducing the social and economic burden of disease. We helped launch the biotechnology industry more than 45 years ago and have grown to be one of the world’s leading independent biotechnology companies. Our robust pipeline includes potential first-in-class medicines at all stages of development. We have a presence in approximately 100 countries worldwide. Amgen was incorporated in California in 1980 and became a Delaware corporation in 1987. Amgen operates in one operating segment: human therapeutics. Significant Developments Following is a summary of significant developments…
Risk factors AMGN lists in its 10-K
- Clinical Development and Product Approval
- We currently face competition from biosimilars and generics and expect to face increasing competition from biosimilars and generics in the future
- Regulation of Product Marketing and Promotion
- Regulation of Manufacturing Standards
- Regulation Outside the United States
- Our business may be affected by litigation and government investigations
- Research and Development and Selected Product Candidates
- Clinical Development and Product Approval
- We must conduct clinical trials in humans before we commercialize and sell any of our product candidates or existing products for new indications
- Investigational indications (programs)
- Phase 3 Product Candidate Program Changes
- Phase 3 Product Candidate Patent Information
- Phases 2 and 3 Program Descriptions
- Compensation, Benefits and Development
- Information about Our Executive Officers
- Geographic Area Financial Information
- Our sales depend on coverage and reimbursement from government and commercial third-party payers, and pricing and reimbursement pressures have affected, and are likely to continue to affect, our profitability
- —Changing U.S. federal coverage and reimbursement policies and practices have affected, and are likely to continue to affect, access to, pricing of, and sales of our products
- —Changing reimbursement and pricing actions in various states have negatively affected, and may continue to negatively affect, access to, and have affected, and may continue to affect, sales of our products
- Genesis Health Care, Inc. v. Becerra
- —U.S. commercial payer actions have affected, and may continue to affect, access to and sales of our products
- —Concentration of sales at certain of our wholesaler distributors, and consolidation of private payers, such as insurers, and PBMs has negatively affected, and may continue to negatively affect, our business
- —Government and commercial payer actions outside the United States have affected and will continue to affect access to and sales of our products
- Guidelines and recommendations published by various organizations can reduce the use of our products
- Our sales and operations are subject to the risks of doing business internationally, including in new or emerging markets
- Global economic conditions may negatively affect us and may magnify certain risks that affect our business
- We may not be able to access the capital and credit markets on terms that are favorable to us, or at all
- Our products face substantial competition and our product candidates are also likely to face substantial competition
- Our intellectual property positions may be challenged, invalidated or circumvented, or we may fail to prevail in current and future intellectual property litigation
- Concentration of sales at certain of our wholesaler distributors, and consolidation of private payers, such as insurers, and PBMs has negatively affected, and may continue to negatively affect, our business
- We may not be able to develop commercial products despite significant investments in R&D
- Our current products and products in development cannot be sold without regulatory approval
- Some of our pharmaceutical pipeline and our commercial product sales rely on collaborations with third parties, which may adversely affect the development and sales of our products
- Some of our products are used with drug delivery or companion diagnostic devices that have their own regulatory, manufacturing and other risks
- We rely on third-party suppliers for certain of our raw materials, medical devices and components
- Manufacturing difficulties, disruptions or delays could limit supply of our products and limit our product sales
- Our business and operations may be negatively affected by the failure, or perceived failure, of achieving our sustainability objectives
- The effects of global climate change and related natural disasters could negatively affect our business and operations