UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Health Care · $355B market cap · SEC CIK 0000731766
ahead of 25% of the S&P 500 · #46 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Jan 25, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.29 in earnings per share.
52-week range $255.97 to $461.62. 12% below its 52-week high and 58% above its low.
The case for UNH
- Has compounded revenue at 11.7% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 16%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.49).
- Pays a modest 1.4% dividend.
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 22.4× earnings, where 4% a year of growth plus a 1.4% dividend would justify about 16×.
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 3.3% this year against 11.7% a year over five.
- Earnings per share fell 8.6%.
- Net margin of 3.5% leaves very little room for error.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.78).
- Revenue growth of +3.3% is slower than 88% of Health Care companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 49 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 36 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 42 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 63 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 46 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +3.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +11.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $448B (+12%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? A little
| FY2025 free cash flow | $16.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 4% |
| Of profit | 133% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | n/a |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 5% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 3.6% → 2.7% → 3.5% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $24.4B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $72.3B |
| Net debt | $48.0B |
| Years to repay | 3.7 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 22.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 16× |
| P/FCF | 22.1× |
| Forward P/E | 17.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.4× |
At 22.4× earnings it trades above the 16× that 4% a year of growth plus a 1.4% dividend would justify. At 22.1× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from UnitedHealth Group's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $448B | $400B | $372B | $324B | $288B |
| Change on the year | +12% | +8% | +15% | +13% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $16.1B | $20.7B | $25.7B | $23.4B | $19.9B |
| Of revenue | 4% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 4.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% |
| Net margin | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $24.4B | $25.3B | $25.4B | $23.4B | $21.4B |
| Long-term debt | $72.3B | $72.4B | $58.3B | $54.5B | $42.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$48.0B | −$47.0B | −$32.8B | −$31.1B | −$21.0B |
What UnitedHealth Group says it does
OUR BUSINESSES Overview The terms “we,” “our,” “us,” “its,” “UnitedHealth Group,” or the “Company” used in this report refer to UnitedHealth Group Incorporated and its subsidiaries. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is a health care and well-being company with a mission to help people live healthier lives and help make the health system work better for everyone. Our two distinct, yet complementary businesses — Optum and UnitedHealthcare — are working to help build a modern, high-performing health system through improved access, affordability, outcomes and experiences for the individuals and organizations we are privileged to serve. The ability to analyze complex data and apply deep health care expertise and insights allows us to serve patients, consumers, care providers, businesses, communities and governments with more innovative products and complete, end-to-end offerings for many of the biggest challenges facing health care today.…
Risk factors UNH lists in its 10-K
- If we fail to develop and maintain satisfactory relationships with health care payers, physicians, hospitals and other service providers, our business could be materially and adversely affected
- If we fail to compete effectively to maintain or increase our market share, including by maintaining or increasing enrollments in businesses providing health benefits, our results of operations, financial position and cash flows
- could be materially and adversely affected
- Our increasing use of AI presents legal, regulatory and business risks to our operations, reputation and financial results
- Our sales performance will suffer if we do not adequately attract, retain and provide support to a network of independent producers and consultants
- Our businesses are subject to risks associated with unfavorable economic conditions
- Our failure to attract, develop, retain, and manage the succession of key employees and executives could adversely affect our business, results of operations and future performance
- Our investment and loan portfolio may sustain losses which could adversely affect our profitability
- If the value of our intangible assets is materially impaired, our results of operations, equity and credit ratings could be materially and adversely affected
- If we are not able to protect our proprietary rights to our databases, software and related products, or other intellectual property, our ability to market our knowledge and information-related businesses could suffer
- Any downgrades in our credit ratings could increase our borrowing and operating costs
- Our pharmacy care services businesses face regulatory and operational risks and uncertainties which may differ from the risks of our other businesses
- Restrictions on our ability to obtain funds from our regulated subsidiaries could materially and adversely affect our ability to reinvest in our business, service our debt and return capital to our shareholders