Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Health Care · $675B market cap · SEC CIK 0000200406
ahead of 63% of the S&P 500 · #24 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Jan 26, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.94 in earnings per share.
52-week range $185.12 to $282.73. 1% below its 52-week high and 52% above its low.
The case for JNJ
- Generated $19.7B of free cash flow in FY2025, 21% of revenue.
- Pays a 3.1% dividend while you wait.
- Return on equity of 20%.
- Gross margin of 68% absorbs cost shocks.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.17).
- Within 1% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 42.0× earnings, where 8% a year of growth plus a 3.1% dividend would justify about 25×.
- Earnings per share down 36.4%.
- Priced at 6.8× sales with revenue growing only 7.8%.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 44 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 30 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 67 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 84 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 88 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +7.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +2.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $94.2B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $19.7B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 21% |
| Of profit | 73% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 68% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 18% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 15.8% → 28.5% → 16.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $19.7B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $39.4B |
| Net debt | $19.7B |
| Years to repay | 1.6 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 42.0× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 25× |
| P/FCF | 34.3× |
| Forward P/E | 23.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 27.6× |
At 42.0× earnings it trades well above the 25× that 8% a year of growth plus a 3.1% dividend would justify. At 34.3× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Johnson & Johnson's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $94.2B | $88.8B | $85.2B | $80.0B | $78.7B |
| Change on the year | +6% | +4% | +6% | +2% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $19.7B | $19.8B | $18.2B | $17.2B | $19.8B |
| Of revenue | 21% | 22% | 21% | 21% | 25% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 67.9% | 69.1% | 68.8% | 69.3% | 70.3% |
| Net margin | 28.5% | 15.8% | 41.3% | 22.4% | 26.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $19.7B | $24.1B | $21.9B | $12.9B | $14.5B |
| Long-term debt | $39.4B | $30.7B | $25.9B | $26.9B | $30.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$19.7B | −$6.5B | −$4.0B | −$14.0B | −$15.5B |
What Johnson & Johnson says it does
Johnson & Johnson and its subsidiaries (the Company) have approximately 138,200 employees worldwide engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the healthcare field. Johnson & Johnson is a holding company, with operating companies conducting business in virtually all countries of the world. The Company’s primary focus is products related to human health and well-being. Johnson & Johnson was incorporated in the State of New Jersey in 1887. The Chief Operating Decision Maker (CODM) is the Company's Chief Executive Officer (Principal Executive Officer). The Executive Committee is Johnson & Johnson’s senior leadership team responsible for setting the strategy and priorities of the Company and driving accountability at all levels. Within the strategic parameters provided by the Executive Committee, senior management groups at U.S. and international operating companies are each responsible…
Risk factors JNJ lists in its 10-K
- The Company’s businesses operate in highly competitive product markets and competitive pressures could adversely affect the Company’s earnings
- Interruptions and delays in manufacturing operations could adversely affect the Company’s business, sales and reputation
- Counterfeit versions of our products could harm our patients and have a negative impact on our revenues, earnings, reputation and business
- Global health crises, pandemics, epidemics, or other outbreaks could adversely disrupt or impact certain aspects of the Company’s business, results of operations and financial condition
- Global sales in the Company’s Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments may be negatively impacted by healthcare reforms and increasing pricing pressures
- The Company is subject to significant legal proceedings that can result in significant expenses, fines and reputational damage
- Product reliability, safety and effectiveness concerns can have significant negative impacts on sales and results of operations, lead to litigation and cause reputational damage
- The Company faces significant regulatory scrutiny, which imposes significant compliance costs and exposes the Company to government investigations, legal actions and penalties
- Changes in tax laws or exposures to additional tax liabilities could negatively impact the Company’s operating results
- The Company faces increased challenges to intellectual property rights central to its business
- Significant challenges or delays in the Company’s innovation, development and implementation of new products, technologies and indications could have an adverse impact on the Company’s long-term success
- The Company faces a variety of financial, economic, legal, social and political risks associated with conducting business internationally
- Illegal importation of pharmaceutical products
- Anti-corruption and other regulations
- Due to the international nature of the Company's business, geopolitical or economic changes or events, including global tensions and war, could adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition
- Weak financial performance, failure to maintain a satisfactory credit rating or disruptions in the financial markets could adversely affect our liquidity, capital position, borrowing costs and access to capital markets
- The planned separation of the Company's Orthopaedics business may not be completed on the terms or timeline currently contemplated, if at all, and may not achieve the expected results
- Following the planned separation, the price of shares of the Company's common stock may fluctuate significantly
- Our business depends on our ability to recruit and retain talented and highly skilled employees
- Climate change or legal, regulatory or market measures to address climate change may negatively affect our business and results of operations
- An information security incident, including a cybersecurity breach, could have a negative impact on the Company’s business or reputation
- A breach of privacy laws or unauthorized access, loss or misuse of personal data could have a negative impact on the Company’s business or reputation