BlackRock (BLK)
Financials · $197B market cap · SEC CIK 0002012383
ahead of 57% of the S&P 500 · #35 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Jan 13, 2027, with analysts expecting $15.63 in earnings per share.
52-week range $917.39 to $1,242. 2% below its 52-week high and 33% above its low.
The case for BLK
- Revenue up 24.7% on the year.
- 24% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Pays a 2.7% dividend while you wait.
- Gross margin of 82% absorbs cost shocks.
- Within 2% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.
The case against
- Price/sales of 6.9× is higher than 85% of Financials companies.
- Weakest against its peers: P/E of 28.6× is higher than 84% of Financials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 46 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 47 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 76 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 71 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 48 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +24.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.4% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $24.2B (+19%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 82% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 32% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 31.2% → 22.9% → 24.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $11.5B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $12.8B |
| Net debt | $1.3B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 28.6× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 27× |
| Forward P/E | 18.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 19.0× |
At 28.6× earnings it trades close to the 27× that 10%+ a year of growth plus a 2.7% dividend would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from BlackRock's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | ||||
| Revenue | $24.2B | $20.4B | $17.9B | $17.9B |
| Change on the year | +19% | +14% | 0% | — |
| Free cash flow | ||||
| Free cash flow | $3.6B | $4.7B | $3.8B | $4.4B |
| Of revenue | 15% | 23% | 21% | 25% |
| Profit margins | ||||
| Operating margin | 29.1% | 37.1% | 35.1% | 35.7% |
| Net margin | 22.9% | 31.2% | 30.8% | 29.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | ||||
| Cash | $11.5B | $12.8B | $8.7B | $7.4B |
| Long-term debt | $12.8B | $12.3B | $7.9B | — |
| Net cash (debt) | −$1.3B | $448M | $818M | — |
Risk factors BLK lists in its 10-K
- Changes in interest or foreign exchange rates and/or global markets may impact BlackRock’s AUM, base fees as well as net income and operating cash flows
- BlackRock’s investment advisory contracts may be terminated or may not be renewed by clients and fund boards on favorable terms and the liquidation of certain funds may be accelerated at the option of investors
- The failure or negative performance of products offered by competitors may cause AUM in similar BlackRock products to decline irrespective of BlackRock’s performance
- Increased competition may cause BlackRock’s AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- Failure to maintain Aladdin’s competitive position in a dynamic market could lead to a loss of clients and could impede BlackRock’s productivity and growth
- BlackRock may be unable to develop new products and services and the development of new products and services may expose BlackRock to reputational harm, additional costs or operational risk
- Changes in the value of seed and co-investments that BlackRock owns could affect its income and could increase the volatility of its earnings
- BlackRock indemnifies certain securities lending clients for specified losses as a result of a borrower default
- BlackRock’s decision on whether to provide support to particular investment products from time to time, or the inability to provide support, may cause AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- Climate-related risks could adversely affect BlackRock’s business, products, operations and clients, which may cause BlackRock’s AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- Poor investment performance could lead to the loss of clients and may cause AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- Performance fees may increase volatility of both revenue and earnings
- Failure to identify errors in the quantitative models BlackRock utilizes to manage its business could adversely affect product performance and client relationships
- Failure or unavailability of third-party dependencies may adversely affect Aladdin operations, which could cause reputational harm, lead to a loss of clients and impede BlackRock’s productivity and growth
- A failure to effectively manage the development and use of AI, combined with an evolving regulatory environment, could have an adverse effect on BlackRock’s growth, reputation or business
- Failure to maintain adequate corporate and contingent liquidity may cause BlackRock’s AUM, liquidity and earnings to decline, as well as harm its prospects for growth
- Operating risks associated with BlackRock’s securities lending program may result in client losses
- Inorganic transactions may harm the Company’s competitive or financial position if they are not successful
- BlackRock is subject to risks associated with its recent acquisitions, including any failure to realize anticipated benefits of such acquisitions
- Operating in international markets increases BlackRock’s operational, political, regulatory and other risks
- Fraud, the circumvention of controls or the violation of risk management and workplace policies could have an adverse effect on BlackRock’s reputation, which may cause the Company’s AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- The failure to recruit, train and retain employees and develop and implement effective executive succession could lead to the loss of clients and may cause AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- The impairment or failure of third parties may negatively impact the performance of products and accounts that BlackRock manages, which may cause BlackRock’s AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- Any disruption to the Company’s distribution channels may cause BlackRock’s AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- Key technology partnerships may expose BlackRock to increased regulatory oversight, as well as migration, execution, technology and operational risks
- BlackRock is subject to extensive regulation around the world, which increases its cost of doing business
- New regulations informed by global standard setters and/or developed by various national authorities may expose BlackRock to increasing regulatory scrutiny and compliance costs in the jurisdictions in which it operates
- Macroprudential Policies for Asset Managers
- Regulatory reforms in the US expose BlackRock to increasing regulatory scrutiny, as well as regulatory uncertainty
- Designation as a Systemically Important Financial Institution (“SIFI”)
- Public Company Disclosure Requirements
- SEC Rules on Reporting of Short Positions and Securities Loans
- Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (“FinCEN”) Rule for Registered Investment Advisers
- Regulation of US Registered Funds and Investment Advisers
- International regulatory reforms expose BlackRock to increasing regulatory scrutiny, as well as regulatory uncertainty
- Enhanced Regulatory Scrutiny of Technology Service Providers to Financial Services Firms
- Legal proceedings may cause the Company’s AUM, revenue and earnings to decline
- BlackRock faces ongoing focus from regulators, officials, clients and other stakeholders regarding environmental and social-related matters, which may adversely impact its reputation and business
- Damage to BlackRock’s reputation may harm its business
- A subsidiary of BlackRock is subject to US banking regulations that may limit its business activities
- BlackRock has been the subject of commentary citing concerns about the scale of its business, as well as purported competition issues relating to the common ownership theory