Visa (V)
Financials · $783B market cap · SEC CIK 0001403161
ahead of 90% of the S&P 500 · #7 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Jan 27, 2027, with analysts expecting $3.70 in earnings per share.
52-week range $293.89 to $442.23. 4% below its 52-week high and 44% above its low.
The case for V
- Earns 65% on shareholder equity.
- 51% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Revenue growing 14.8% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 13.8% a year over five years.
- Gross margin of 80% absorbs cost shocks.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.77).
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 33.3× earnings, where 10%+ a year of growth plus a 0.8% dividend would justify about 24×.
- Priced at 17.1× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 35 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 76 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 95 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 81 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 54 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +14.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +13.8% a year |
| FY2026 revenue | $45.9B (+15%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 80% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 61% |
| Net margin, FY25 → FY26 → now | 50.1% → 51.2% → 51.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $12.9B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $19.4B |
| Net debt | $6.4B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 33.3× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 24× |
| Forward P/E | 27.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 26.8× |
At 33.3× earnings it trades above the 24× that 10%+ a year of growth plus a 0.8% dividend would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Visa's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $45.9B | $40.0B | $35.9B | $32.7B | $29.3B |
| Change on the year | +15% | +11% | +10% | +11% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $22.1B | $21.6B | $18.7B | $19.7B | $17.9B |
| Of revenue | 48% | 54% | 52% | 60% | 61% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 61.2% | 60.0% | 65.7% | 64.3% | 64.2% |
| Net margin | 51.2% | 50.1% | 55.0% | 52.9% | 51.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $12.9B | $17.2B | $12.0B | $16.3B | $15.7B |
| Long-term debt | $19.4B | $19.6B | $20.8B | $20.5B | $20.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$6.4B | −$2.4B | −$8.9B | −$4.2B | −$4.5B |
What Visa says it does
Overview Visa is one of the world’s leaders in digital payments. Our purpose is to uplift everyone, everywhere by being the best way to pay and be paid. Since Visa’s early days in 1958, we have been in the business of facilitating secure, reliable and efficient global commerce and money movement. We provide transaction processing services (primarily authorization, clearing and settlement) among consumers, issuing and acquiring financial institutions and sellers in a structure we call the “four-party” model. Please see Four-Party Model discussion below. As the payments ecosystem continues to evolve, we have broadened this model to include digital banks, digital wallets, a range of financial technology companies (fintechs), governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). We are focused on extending, enhancing and investing in our proprietary advanced transaction processing network, VisaNet, to offer a single connection point for…
Risk factors V lists in its 10-K
- We are subject to complex and evolving global regulations that could harm our business and financial results
- Increased scrutiny and regulation of fees, operating rules and related practices of the global payments industry, could harm our business
- Government-imposed obligations and/or restrictions on international payments systems may prevent us from competing against providers in certain markets
- Laws and regulations regarding the handling of personal data, including laws and regulations related to privacy, cybersecurity and AI, may impede our services or result in increased costs, legal claims or fines against us
- We may be subject to tax examinations or disputes, or changes in tax laws
- We may be adversely affected by the outcome of litigation or investigations
- Note 5—U.S. and Europe Retrospective Responsibility Plans
- We face intense competition in our industry
- Our net revenue and profits are dependent on our client and seller base, which may be costly to win, retain and develop
- Sellers’ and processors’ continued push to lower acceptance costs and challenge industry practices could harm our business
- We depend on relationships with financial institutions, acquirers, processors, sellers, payment facilitators, ecommerce platforms, fintechs and other third parties
- Our business could be harmed if we are not able to maintain and enhance our brand, if events occur that have the potential to damage our brand or reputation, or if we experience brand disintermediation
- Global economic, political, market, health and social events or conditions may harm our business
- Our ability to adjust to evolving corporate responsibility and sustainability matters and related regulations could adversely affect our business and financial results or negatively impact our reputation
- Our indemnification obligation to fund settlement losses of our clients, and in some cases other third parties, exposes us to significant risk of loss and may adversely impact our liquidity
- Note 12—Settlement Guarantee Management
- Failure to anticipate, adapt to or keep pace with new technologies in the payments industry could harm our business and impact future growth
- A disruption, failure or breach of our networks or systems, including as a result of cyber incidents or attacks, could harm our business
- We may not achieve the anticipated benefits of our acquisitions, joint ventures or strategic investments, and may face risks and uncertainties as a result
- We may be unable to attract, hire, develop, motivate and retain a highly qualified workforce, including key members of management
- Holders of our class B and C common stock and series A, B and C preferred stock may have different interests than our class A common shareholders concerning certain significant transactions
- Delaware law, provisions in our governing documents and our capital structure could make a merger, takeover attempt or change in control difficult