Lumentum (LITE)

Information Technology · $52.1B market cap · SEC CIK 0001633978

Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $5.79 in earnings per share.

52-week range $215.35 to $1,143. 49% below its 52-week high and 172% above its low.

The case for LITE

• Holds more cash ($2.0B) than long-term debt ($40.5M).
• Revenue up 83% on the year. A jump that size is often a deal or an accounting change, so check the filing.
• Has compounded revenue at 11.6% a year over five years.
• Barely leveraged. Debt is 0.35× equity.
• Up 148.3% over the past year.

The case against

• Losing money over the last year: net margin −230.1%, return on equity −300%.
• Priced at 17.3× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
• Swings harder than the market (beta 1.65).
• Free cash flow is only 0.6% of its market value, a thin cash return for the price.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Information Technology companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• It is losing money, so it has no P/E; that counts against value rather than being skipped.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 73 Information Technology companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Lumentum's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Lumentum says it does

Overview Lumentum Holdings Inc. (“we,” “us,” “our”, “Lumentum” or the “Company”) is a global leader in optical and photonic technologies and an industry-leading provider of optical and photonic products based on revenue and market share. Our products are essential to a range of cloud, artificial intelligence and machine learning (“AI/ML”), telecommunications, consumer, and industrial end-market applications. We operate in one reportable segment as a single, integrated enterprise. See “Note 17. Operating Segments and Geographic Information” to the consolidated financial statements. We disaggregate revenue by type of product, which are Components and Systems, and by geography. A Components product is defined as one of the individual building blocks that goes into creating a larger solution. It is typically not a complete solution on its own but rather a specialized element that enables system functionality. This includes semiconductor…

Risk factors LITE lists in its 10-K

• Our operating results may be adversely affected by unfavorable changes in macroeconomics and market conditions and the uncertain geopolitical environment
• We depend on a limited number of suppliers for raw materials, packages and components, and any failure or delay by these suppliers in meeting our requirements could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations
• Our financial results may be adversely affected due to changes in product demand impacted by recessions, increases in interest rates, stagflation and other economic conditions
• Our ability to sell our products to a previously significant customer has been restricted
• Inflation and increased borrowing costs could impact our cash flows and profitability
• Our backlog may not be an accurate indicator of our level and timing of future revenues
• We expect our gross margins and operating margins to vary over time
• Challenges relating to supply chain constraints, including semiconductor components, could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition
• If we do not anticipate technological shifts, market needs and opportunities, we may not be able to compete effectively and our ability to generate revenues will suffer
• Changing technology and intense competition require us to continuously innovate while controlling product costs, and our failure to do so may result in decreased revenues and profitability
• We rely on a limited number of customers for a significant portion of our sales; and the majority of our customers do not have contractual purchase commitments
• Intense competition in our markets may lead to an accelerated reduction in our prices, revenues, margins and market share
• We are subject to risks arising from our international operations, which may adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations
• We are subject to the risks of owning real property
• If we are unable to manufacture certain products in our manufacturing facilities or if we or our contract manufacturers and suppliers are unable or fail to meet our production requirements, our business may be adversely affected
• Changes in demand and customer requirements for our products may reduce manufacturing yields, which could negatively impact our profitability
• If our customers do not qualify our manufacturing lines or the manufacturing lines of our subcontractors for volume shipments, our operating results could suffer
• Our products may contain defects that could cause us to incur significant costs, divert our attention from product development efforts and result in loss of customers
• If we are unable to successfully identify, acquire and integrate suitable businesses, our operating results and prospects could be harmed, and any businesses we acquire may not perform as expected or be effectively integrated
• We may not be able to realize tax savings from our international structure, which could adversely affect our operating results
• Changes in tax laws could have an adverse effect on our business, cash flow, results of operations or financial conditions
• Our operating results may be subject to volatility due to fluctuations in foreign currency
• We may require additional capital to support business growth, and this capital might not be available on acceptable terms, if at all
• If we fail to effectively manage our growth or, alternatively, our spending during downturns, our business could be disrupted, which could harm our operating results
• Any failure, disruption or security breach or incident of or impacting our information technology infrastructure or information management systems could have an adverse impact on our business and operations
• Our revenues, operating results, and cash flows may fluctuate from period to period due to a number of factors, which makes predicting financial results difficult
• If we have insufficient proprietary rights or if we fail to protect our rights, our business could be harmed
• We face certain litigation risks that could harm our business
• Our current and future indebtedness may limit our operating flexibility or otherwise affect our business
• Our ability to develop, market and sell products could be harmed if we are unable to retain or hire key personnel
• Our ability to hire and retain employees may be negatively impacted by changes in immigration laws, regulations and procedures
• Our reputation and/or business could be negatively impacted by ESG matters and/or our reporting of such matters
• We may be adversely affected by climate change regulations
• We are subject to laws and regulations worldwide including with respect to environmental matters, securities laws, privacy and data protection, compliance with which could increase our expenses and harm our operating results
• Our stock price may be volatile and may decline regardless of our operating performance
• Transactions relating to our convertible notes may dilute the ownership interest of existing stockholders, or may otherwise depress the price of our common stock
• We do not expect to pay dividends on our common stock
• Certain provisions in our charter and Delaware corporate law could hinder a takeover attempt
• Our bylaws designate Delaware courts as the sole and exclusive forum for certain types of actions and proceedings that may be initiated by our stockholders, which could discourage lawsuits against us or our directors and officers
• The 2032 Capped Call Options may affect the value of our common stock
• We are subject to counterparty risk with respect to the 2032 Capped Call Options

Filings

Other Information Technology companies