Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)
Information Technology · $67.7B market cap · SEC CIK 0001280452
ahead of 46% of the S&P 500 · #43 of 73 in Information Technology
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $9.64 in earnings per share.
52-week range $833.18 to $1,714. 21% below its 52-week high and 63% above its low.
The case for MPWR
- Revenue up 40.5% on the year.
- Generated $666M of free cash flow in FY2025, 24% of revenue.
- 24% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Has compounded revenue at 27.0% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 24%.
- Carries essentially no debt.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 75.4× earnings, where 25%+ a year of growth would justify about 46×.
- Earnings per share down 53.5%.
- Priced at 18.1× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
- Swings harder than the market (beta 1.78).
- Free cash flow is only 1.0% of its market value, a thin cash return for the price.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Information Technology companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 26 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 67 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 70 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 65 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 42 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 73 Information Technology companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +40.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +27.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.8B (+26%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $666M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 24% |
| Of profit | 107% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 55% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 30% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 72.1% → 22.3% → 24.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, little debt
| Cash | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
| Debt / equity | 0.00× |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 75.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 46× |
| P/FCF | 101.6× |
| Forward P/E | 28.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 57.5× |
At 75.4× earnings it trades well above the 46× that 25%+ a year of growth would justify. At 101.6× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Monolithic Power Systems's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $2.8B | $2.2B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.2B |
| Change on the year | +26% | +21% | +2% | +49% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $666M | $642M | $581M | $188M | $226M |
| Of revenue | 24% | 29% | 32% | 10% | 19% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 55.2% | 55.3% | 56.1% | 58.4% | 56.8% |
| Operating margin | 26.1% | 24.4% | 26.5% | 29.4% | 21.7% |
| Net margin | 22.3% | 72.1% | 23.5% | 24.4% | 20.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.1B | $692M | $528M | $289M | $189M |
What Monolithic Power Systems says it does
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is a fabless global company that provides high-performance, semiconductor-based power electronics solutions. Incorporated in 1997, our three core strengths include deep system-level knowledge, strong semiconductor design expertise, and innovative proprietary technologies in the areas of semiconductor processes, system integration, and packaging. These combined advantages enable us to deliver reliable, compact, and monolithic solutions found in storage and computing, enterprise data, automotive, industrial, communications and consumer applications. Our mission is to reduce energy and material consumption to improve all aspects of quality of life and create a sustainable future. We believe that we differentiate ourselves by offering solutions that are more highly integrated, smaller in size, more energy-efficient, more accurate and more reliable with respect to performance specifications and, consequently,…
Risk factors MPWR lists in its 10-K
- We derive most of our revenue from direct or indirect sales to customers in Asia and have significant operations in Asia, which may expose us to political, cultural, regulatory, economic, foreign exchange, and operational risks
- There are inherent risks associated with the operation of our manufacturing and testing facilities in China, which could increase product costs or cause a delay in product shipments
- Our business has been and may be significantly impacted by worldwide economic conditions, in particular changing economic conditions in China
- We are subject to export laws, trade policies and restrictions including international tariffs that could materially and adversely affect our business and results of operations
- We face political and other risks conducting business in Taiwan and Hong Kong, particularly due to their tense relationships with China
- Fluctuations in the value of the U.S. Dollar relative to other currencies, including the Renminbi, may adversely affect our results of operations
- We may not achieve growth rates or financial performance comparable to past years
- If demand for our products declines in the major end markets that we serve, our revenue will decrease and our results of operations and financial condition would be materially and adversely affected
- Due to the nature of our business as a component and solution supplier, we may have difficulty both in accurately predicting our future revenue and appropriately managing our expenses
- The loss of any significant distributors, value-added resellers or direct or indirect customers, or failure to collect accounts receivable from them could adversely affect our financial position and results of operations
- Our products must meet specifications, and undetected defects and failures may occur, which may cause customers to return or stop buying our products and may expose us to product liability risk
- Our ability to increase product sales and revenue may be constrained by the manufacturing capacity of our suppliers
- There may be unanticipated costs associated with increasing our third-party suppliers’ manufacturing capacity
- We might not be able to deliver our products on a timely basis if our relationships with our assembly and test subcontractors are disrupted or terminated
- We purchase inventory in advance based on expected demand for our products, and if demand is not as expected, we may have insufficient or excess inventory, which could adversely impact our financial position
- The highly cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, which has resulted in significant and sometimes prolonged downturns, could materially and adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations
- Industry consolidation may lead to increased competition and may harm our operating results
- We compete against many companies with substantially greater financial and other resources, and our market share may decline if we are unable to respond to our competitors effectively
- We may face competition from customers developing products internally
- Implementation of enhanced enterprise resource planning (“ERP”) or other IT systems could result in significant disruptions to our operations
- Our worldwide tax rates, financial position and operating results may be affected by changes in the relevant tax laws, interpretation of such tax laws or the influence of certain tax policy efforts
- Changes in effective tax rates or adverse outcomes resulting from examination of our income tax returns could adversely affect our results of operations
- The challenging, subjective or complex judgments of certain accounting areas may not be accurate, and could result in restatements of our financial statements
- We face risks in connection with our internal control over financial reporting and the identified material weakness
- Compliance with environmental laws and regulations could cause disruptions in our business and operations
- We are subject to regulatory and reporting standards related to ESG matters, which could increase our expenses
- Future legal proceedings may divert our financial and management resources
- Failure to protect our proprietary technologies or maintain the right to certain technologies may negatively affect our ability to compete
- The loss of any of our key personnel or the failure to attract or retain specialized technical and management personnel could affect our operations or impair our ability to grow our business
- If we fail to retain key employees in our sales, engineering, finance and legal functions or to make continued improvements to our internal systems, our business may suffer
- The future trading price of our common stock could be subject to wide fluctuations in response to a variety of factors
- If securities or industry analysts downgrade our stock or do not continue to publish research or reports about our business, our stock price and trading volume could decline
- Short positions in our stock could have a substantial impact on the trading price of our stock
- There can be no assurance that we will continue to declare cash dividends in any particular amounts or at all
- We cannot guarantee that our stock repurchase program will enhance long-term stockholder value
- If we issue additional shares of stock in the future, it may have a dilutive effect on our stockholders