ON Semiconductor (ON)
Information Technology · $26.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0001097864
ahead of 5% of the S&P 500 · #69 of 73 in Information Technology
Next reports on Feb 8, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.03 in earnings per share.
52-week range $44.56 to $134.92. 48% below its 52-week high and 56% above its low.
The case for ON
- Generated $1.4B of free cash flow in FY2025, 24% of revenue.
- Earnings per share up 123.9%.
- Current assets cover the near-term bills 3.5 times over.
- Up 44.5% over the past year.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 38.5× earnings, where 0% a year of growth would justify about 8×.
- Swings harder than the market (beta 2.17).
- Return on equity of 9% is lower than 85% of Information Technology companies.
- Revenue grew only 2.9%, roughly the pace of inflation.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Information Technology companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 11 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 28 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 41 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 46 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 44 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 73 Information Technology companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +2.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +2.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $6.0B (−15%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.4B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 24% |
| Of profit | 1172% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 39% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 12% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 22.2% → 2.0% → 10.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $2.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $3.0B |
| Net debt | $833M |
| Years to repay | 1.7 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 38.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 8× |
| P/FCF | 18.7× |
| Forward P/E | 16.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 32.4× |
At 38.5× earnings it trades well above the 8× that 0% a year of growth would justify. At 18.7× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from ON Semiconductor's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $6.0B | $7.1B | $8.3B | $8.3B | $6.7B |
| Change on the year | −15% | −14% | −1% | +24% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.4B | $1.2B | $438M | $1.6B | $1.3B |
| Of revenue | 24% | 17% | 5% | 19% | 20% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 33.1% | 45.4% | 47.1% | 49.0% | 40.3% |
| Operating margin | 1.4% | 25.0% | 30.8% | 28.3% | 19.1% |
| Net margin | 2.0% | 22.2% | 26.5% | 22.8% | 15.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $2.1B | $2.7B | $2.5B | $2.9B | $1.4B |
| Long-term debt | $3.0B | $3.3B | $2.5B | $3.0B | $2.9B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$833M | −$655M | −$59.6M | −$127M | −$1.6B |
What ON Semiconductor says it does
Overview ON Semiconductor Corporation, together with its wholly and majority-owned subsidiaries, which operate under the onsemi TM brand ("onsemi," "we," "us," "our," or the "Company"), was incorporated under the laws of the State of Delaware in 1992. We offer intelligent power and intelligent sensing solutions that drive electrification, energy efficiency, safety, and automation in automotive, industrial, and other end-markets, including AI data center. Our intelligent power technologies enable the electrification of drivetrain in the automotive industry to allow for lighter and longer-range electric vehicles and empower efficient fast-charging systems. Our intelligent sensing technologies enable advanced safety applications in automotive through industry leading performance and reliability. We believe the evolution of the automotive industry, with advancements in autonomous driving, ADAS, vehicle electrification, and the increase in…
Risk factors ON lists in its 10-K
- Trends, Risks and Uncertainties Related to Our Business
- We may be unable to implement certain business strategies and restructuring initiatives and the pursuit of such strategies and initiatives could materially adversely affect our business and results of operations
- Our operating results depend, in part, on the performance of independent distributors
- Our power technologies designed for AI use may not capture market share as expected, and issues related to the responsible use of AI may adversely affect our business
- We are exposed to risks related to the use of AI tools by us and others
- We may be unable to attract and retain highly skilled personnel
- Warranty claims, product liability claims, product recalls, and the failure to comply with the terms and conditions of our contracts, could harm our business, reputation, results of operations and financial condition
- Currency fluctuations, changes in foreign exchange regulations and repatriation delays and costs could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition
- Trends, Risks and Uncertainties Related to Intellectual Property
- If our technologies are subject to claims of infringement on the IP rights of others, efforts to address such claims could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations
- If we fail to, or are unable to, adequately protect the IP we have developed or licensed, our competitive position, business and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected
- Trends, Risks and Uncertainties Related to Cybersecurity and Data Privacy
- Disruptions or breaches of our information technology systems could irreparably damage our reputation and our business, expose us to liability and materially adversely affect our results of operations
- We are subject to governmental laws, regulations and other legal obligations related to privacy and data protection
- Trends, Risks and Uncertainties Related to Regulation
- Environmental and health and safety liabilities and expenditures could materially adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition
- Our failure to comply with anti-corruption laws could result in penalties that could harm our reputation and have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations
- Changes in tax legislation or exposure to additional tax liabilities could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition
- Trends, Risks and Uncertainties Related to Our Indebtedness
- The agreements relating to our indebtedness, including the Credit Agreement and the 3.875% Notes, may restrict our ability to operate our business, and as a result may materially adversely affect our results of operations
- An event of default under any agreement relating to our outstanding indebtedness could cross default other indebtedness, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations
- If interest rates increase, our debt service obligations under our variable rate indebtedness could increase significantly, which would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations
- Note hedge and warrant transactions we have entered into may materially adversely affect the value of our common stock
- Counterparty risk with respect to the note hedge transactions, if realized, could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations
- Trends, Risks and Uncertainties Related to Our Common Stock
- Provisions in our charter documents may delay or prevent the acquisition of us, which could materially adversely affect the value of our common stock
- The amount and frequency of our share repurchases are affected by a number of factors and may fluctuate
- If our goodwill or amortizable intangible assets become impaired, we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings
- Downturns or volatility in general economic conditions, as well as general macroeconomic trends and impacts, could have an adverse impact on our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Regulatory and legislative developments related to climate change may materially adversely affect our business and financial condition