Arch Capital Group (ACGL)
Financials · $35.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0000947484
ahead of 97% of the S&P 500 · #2 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Feb 8, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.57 in earnings per share.
52-week range $87.05 to $113.63. 4% below its 52-week high and 25% above its low.
The case for ACGL
- Cheap for its growth: 8.1× earnings, where 10%+ a year of growth would justify about 23×.
- 24% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Has compounded revenue at 18.4% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 18%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.18).
The case against
- Revenue slipped 4.9% on the year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 80 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 68 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 70 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 76 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 74 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, shrinking
| Last 12 months | −4.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +18.4% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $19.9B (+14%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | n/a |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 23% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 24.7% → 22.1% → 24.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $993M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 8.1× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 23× |
| Price / book | 1.37× |
| Fair P/B for its ROE | 1.8× |
| Forward P/E | 10.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.2× |
At 8.1× earnings it trades well below the 23× that 10%+ a year of growth would justify. At 1.37× book it trades below the 1.8× that its 18% return on equity would justify; for a financial company that counts for more than earnings.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Arch Capital Group's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $19.9B | $17.4B | $13.6B | $9.6B | $9.2B |
| Change on the year | +14% | +28% | +42% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $6.1B | $6.6B | $5.7B | $3.8B | $3.4B |
| Of revenue | 31% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 37% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 22.1% | 24.7% | 32.6% | 15.4% | 23.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $993M | $979M | $917M | $855M | $859M |
What Arch Capital Group says it does
As used in this report, references to “we,” “us,” “our,” “Arch” or the “Company” refer to the consolidated operations of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (“Arch Capital”) and its subsidiaries. All amounts are in millions, except per share amounts, unless otherwise noted. We refer you to Item 1A “Risk Factors” for a discussion of risk factors relating to our business. OUR COMPANY General Arch Capital is a publicly listed Bermuda exempted company with approximately $26.9 billion in capital at December 31, 2025 and is part of the S&P 500 index. Arch provides insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance on a worldwide basis through its wholly owned subsidiaries. While we are positioned to provide a full range of property, casualty and mortgage insurance and reinsurance lines, we focus on writing specialty lines of insurance and reinsurance. For 2025, we wrote $16.5 billion of net premiums and reported net income available to Arch common…
Risk factors ACGL lists in its 10-K
- We operate in a highly competitive environment, and we may not be able to compete successfully in our industry
- The insurance and reinsurance industry is highly cyclical, and we may at times experience periods characterized by excess underwriting capacity and unfavorable premium rates
- The effects of inflation, trade and tariff disputes and other economic conditions impact the insurance and reinsurance industry in ways which may negatively impact our business, financial condition and results of operations
- Claims for natural catastrophic events could cause large losses and substantial volatility in our results of operations and could have a material adverse effect on our financial position and results of operations
- Sanctions imposed by the U.S., U.K. and EU on Russia and Russia-related businesses have impacted certain sectors in which we write business
- Certain U.S. policies and actions have created geopolitical risks which are not possible to manage or predict, some of which may result in uncertainty in the global markets
- Our customers and policyholders may also be impacted by regulatory, technological, market or other risks relating to climate change in ways which we cannot predict with certainty and adversely impact our results of operations
- Underwriting risks and reserving for losses are based on probabilities and related modeling, which are subject to inherent uncertainties
- The failure of any of the loss limitation methods we employ could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations
- We could be materially adversely affected to the extent that important third parties with whom we do business do not adequately or appropriately manage their risks, commit fraud or otherwise breach obligations owed to us
- Emerging claim and coverage issues may adversely affect our business
- Acquisitions, the addition of new lines of insurance or reinsurance business, expansion into new geographic regions and/or entering into joint ventures or partnerships expose us to risks
- Our information technology systems and our pace of adoption of new technologies, including AI, may not be adequate to meet the demands of our customers or impact negatively our ability to compete with our peers
- Technology failures caused by intentional and unintentional human and non-human actions may cause material disruption in the availability of the information technology systems we use in our business
- Our success will depend on our ability to maintain and enhance effective operating procedures and internal controls and our ERM program
- We are exposed to credit risk in certain of our business operations
- Our business is subject to laws and regulations relating to economic trade sanctions and foreign bribery laws, the violation of which could adversely affect our operations
- Foreign currency exchange rate fluctuation may adversely affect our financial results
- The determination of the amount of current expected CECL allowances taken on our investments is highly subjective and could materially impact our results of operations or financial position
- The ultimate performance of our mortgage insurance portfolios remains uncertain
- The implementation of the Basel III Capital Accord and FHFA’s Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework may adversely affect the use of mortgage insurance and SRT and CRT opportunities
- There are regulatory limitations on the ownership and transfer of our common shares
- Arch Capital is a holding company and is dependent on dividends and other distributions from its operating subsidiaries
- General market conditions and unpredictable factors could adversely affect market prices for our outstanding preferred shares
- Dividends on our preferred shares are non-cumulative
- Our preferred shares are equity and are subordinate to our existing and future indebtedness
- The voting rights of holders of our preferred shares are limited
- We are subject to increased taxation in Bermuda as a result of the Bermuda CIT Act, effective January 1, 2025 and may become subject to increased taxation in other countries as a result of th
- implementation of the OECD's plan on “Base Erosion and Profit Shifting.”