Aflac (AFL)
Financials · $62.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0000004977
ahead of 53% of the S&P 500 · #41 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Apr 27, 2027, with analysts expecting $1.93 in earnings per share.
52-week range $105.76 to $131.19. 3% below its 52-week high and 20% above its low.
The case for AFL
- 27% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Revenue growing 13.6% year over year.
- Earnings per share up 111.0%.
- Return on equity of 16%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.54).
- Pays a modest 2.4% dividend.
The case against
- Revenue has shrunk 5.0% a year over five years.
- Weakest against its peers: price/sales of 3.4× is higher than 70% of Financials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 48 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 26 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 71 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 63 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 85 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +13.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | −5.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $17.2B (−9%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | n/a |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 33% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 28.8% → 21.2% → 26.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $6.2B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 12.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 16× |
| Price / book | 1.97× |
| Fair P/B for its ROE | 1.6× |
| Forward P/E | 16.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.8× |
At 12.8× earnings it trades below the 16× that 3% a year of growth plus a 2.4% dividend would justify. At 1.97× book it trades close to the 1.6× that its 16% return on equity would justify; for a financial company that counts for more than earnings.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Aflac's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $17.2B | $18.9B | $18.7B | $19.1B | $21.6B |
| Change on the year | −9% | +1% | −2% | −11% | — |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | — | — | — | 21.7% | 22.9% |
| Net margin | 21.2% | 28.8% | 24.9% | 23.1% | 19.6% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $6.2B | $6.2B | $4.3B | $3.9B | $5.1B |
What Aflac says it does
PART I FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor to encourage companies to provide prospective information, so long as those informational statements are identified as forward-looking and are accompanied by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. Aflac Incorporated and its subsidiaries (the Company) desire to take advantage of these provisions. This report contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected herein, and in any other statements made by Company officials in communications with the financial community and contained in documents filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements are not based on…
Risk factors AFL lists in its 10-K
- Investment and Markets Risk Factors
- Difficult conditions in global capital markets and the economy could have a material adverse effect on the Company's investments, capital position, revenue, profitability, and liquidity and harm the Company's business
- Defaults, downgrades, widening credit spreads or other events impairing the value of the fixed maturity securities and loan receivables in the Company's investment portfolio may reduce the Company's earnings and capital position
- The Company is exposed to significant interest rate risk, which may adversely affect its results of operations, financial condition and liquidity
- The Company's concentration of business in Japan poses risks to its operations and financial condition
- Lack of availability of acceptable Japanese yen-denominated investments could adversely affect the Company's results of operations, financial position or liquidity
- The Company is exposed to foreign currency fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate
- The determination of the amount of expected credit losses recorded on the Company's investments is based on significant valuation judgments and could materially impact its results of operations or financial position
- Any decrease in the Company's financial strength or debt ratings may have an adverse effect on its competitive position and access to liquidity and capital
- A decline in the creditworthiness of other financial institutions could adversely affect the Company
- If future policy benefits, claims or expenses exceed those anticipated in establishing premiums and reserves, the Company's financial results would be adversely affected
- As a holding company, the Parent Company depends on the ability of its subsidiaries to transfer funds to it to meet its debt service and other obligations and to pay dividends on its common stock
- The Company's risk management policies and procedures may prove to be ineffective and leave the Company exposed to unidentified or unanticipated risk, which could adversely affect the Company's businesses or result in losses
- Tax rates applicable to the Company may change
- Extensive regulation and changes in legislation can impact profitability and growth
- Competition could adversely affect the Company's ability to increase or maintain its market share or profitability
- Catastrophic events could adversely affect the Company's financial condition and results of operations as well as the availability of the Company’s infrastructure and systems
- Events, including those external to the Company's operations, could damage the Company's reputation
- The Company depends heavily on key management personnel, and the loss of services of one or more of its key executives could harm the Company's business
- Changes in accounting standards issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) or other standard-setting bodies may adversely affect the Company's financial statements
- The Company faces risks related to litigation, regulatory investigations and inquiry and other matters
- Allegations or determinations of agent misclassification could adversely affect the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity