Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)
Financials · $71.6B market cap · SEC CIK 0000354190
ahead of 32% of the S&P 500 · #59 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Jan 27, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.80 in earnings per share.
52-week range $190.75 to $294.53. 4% below its 52-week high and 48% above its low.
The case for AJG
- Revenue up 21.7% on the year.
- Has compounded revenue at 14.8% a year over five years.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.47).
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 42.1× earnings, where 10%+ a year of growth plus a 0.9% dividend would justify about 24×.
- Return on equity of only 7%.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 27 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 61 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 35 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 75 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 61 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +21.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +14.8% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.9B (+21%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 47% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 18% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 12.7% → 10.7% → 10.7% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $1.4B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $12.1B |
| Net debt | $10.7B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 42.1× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 24× |
| Forward P/E | 19.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 19.4× |
At 42.1× earnings it trades well above the 24× that 10%+ a year of growth plus a 0.9% dividend would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Arthur J. Gallagher's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $13.9B | $11.6B | $10.1B | $8.6B | $8.2B |
| Change on the year | +21% | +15% | +18% | +4% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.8B | $2.4B | $1.8B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| Of revenue | 13% | 21% | 18% | 14% | 15% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 10.7% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 11.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.4B | $15.0B | $971M | $738M | $403M |
| Long-term debt | $12.1B | $12.7B | $7.0B | $5.6B | $5.8B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$10.7B | $2.3B | −$6.0B | −$4.8B | −$5.4B |
What Arthur J. Gallagher says it does
Overview Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries, collectively referred to herein as we, our, us or Gallagher, are engaged in providing insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals around the world. We believe that our major strength is our ability to deliver comprehensively structured insurance, reinsurance and risk management solutions, superior claim outcomes and comprehensive consulting services to our clients. Our brokerage segment operations provide brokerage and consulting services to entities of all types, including commercial, nonprofit, public sector entities, insurance companies and insurance capital providers, and to a lesser extent, individuals, in the areas of insurance and reinsurance placements, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs. Our risk management…
Risk factors AJG lists in its 10-K
- Global economic conditions and geopolitical events may impact the countries, regions or industries in which we operate and adversely affect our business results of operations and financial condition
- Economic conditions that result in financial difficulties for underwriting enterprises or lead to reduced risk-taking capital capacity could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition
- Damage to our reputation or culture could have a material adverse effect on our business
- Our sustainability-related aspirations, goals and initiatives, and our statements and disclosures regarding sustainability expose us to numerous risks
- We are subject to risks associated with AI
- Our success depends, in part, on our ability to attract and retain qualified talent, including our senior management team
- Business disruptions could have a material adverse effect on our operations, damage our reputation and impact client relationships
- Our business or reputation could be harmed by our reliance on third-party providers
- Sustained increases in compensation expense and the cost of employee benefits could reduce our profitability
- Our substantial operations outside the U.S. expose us to risks different than those we face in the U.S
- Changes in tax laws could adversely affect us
- We face significant competitive pressures in each of our businesses
- Volatility or declines in premiums or other adverse trends in the insurance industry may seriously undermine our profitability
- We face a variety of risks in our benefit consulting operations distinct from those we face in our insurance brokerage operations
- We face a variety of risks in our third-party claims administration operations that are distinct from those we face in our brokerage and benefit consulting operations
- Changes in data privacy and protection laws and regulations, or any failure to comply with such laws and regulations, could adversely affect our business and financial results
- We are subject to a number of contingencies and legal proceedings which, if determined unfavorably to us, would adversely affect our financial results
- Changes in our accounting estimates and assumptions could negatively affect our financial position and operating results
- Limited protection of our intellectual property could harm our business and our ability to compete effectively, and we face the risk that our services or products may infringe upon the intellectual property rights of others
- Our clean energy investments are subject to various risks and uncertainties
- The IRC Section 45 operations in which we have invested and the by-products from such operations may result in environmental and product liability claims and environmental compliance costs
- We have debt outstanding that could adversely affect our financial flexibility and subjects us to restrictions and limitations that could significantly impact our ability to operate our business
- Credit rating downgrades would increase our financing costs and could subject us to operational risk
- We are a holding company and, therefore, may not be able to receive dividends or other distributions in needed amounts from our subsidiaries
- Future sales or other dilution of our equity could adversely affect the market price of our common stock