Align Technology (ALGN)
Health Care · $12.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0001097149
ahead of 31% of the S&P 500 · #42 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $3.11 in earnings per share.
52-week range $130.23 to $200.44. 13% below its 52-week high and 34% above its low.
The case for ALGN
- Earnings per share up 33.6%.
- Has compounded revenue at 10.3% a year over five years.
- Carries essentially no debt.
- Gross margin of 69% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 24.8× earnings, where 0% a year of growth would justify about 8×.
- Swings harder than the market (beta 1.71).
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 15 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 50 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 63 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 59 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 69 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +4.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +10.3% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.0B (+1%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $491M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 12% |
| Of profit | 120% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 69% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 15% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 10.5% → 10.2% → 11.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, little debt
| Cash | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
| Debt / equity | 0.00× |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 24.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 8× |
| P/FCF | 24.8× |
| Forward P/E | 12.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.9× |
At 24.8× earnings it trades well above the 8× that 0% a year of growth would justify. At 24.8× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Align Technology's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $4.0B | $4.0B | $3.9B | $3.7B | $4.0B |
| Change on the year | +1% | +4% | +3% | −6% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $491M | $623M | $608M | $277M | $771M |
| Of revenue | 12% | 16% | 16% | 7% | 20% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 67.2% | 70.0% | 70.1% | 70.5% | 74.3% |
| Operating margin | 13.5% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 17.2% | 24.7% |
| Net margin | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 19.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.1B | $1.0B | $937M | $942M | $1.1B |
What Align Technology says it does
Our Company Align Technology, Inc. (“we,” “us,” “our,” “Align” or the “Company”) is a global medical device company primarily engaged in the design, manufacture and marketing of Invisalign ® clear aligners for the treatment of malocclusions, or the misalignment of teeth, by orthodontists and general dental practitioners (“GPs”), Vivera TM retainers for retention, iTero TM intraoral scanners and services for dentistry, and exocad TM computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (“CAD/CAM”) software for dental laboratories and dental practitioners. Our vision and strategy is to revolutionize orthodontic and restorative dentistry through digital treatment planning and implementation using the Align TM Digital Platform, an integrated suite of proprietary technologies and services designed to deliver a seamless, end-to-end solution for patients, consumers, orthodontists, GPs and lab partners. We strive to achieve our vision and…
Risk factors ALGN lists in its 10-K
- Global and regional economic conditions have and could in the future materially affect our business, financial condition and results of operations
- We are subject to foreign currency exchange fluctuations, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations
- Geopolitical events, tariffs and trade policies, and military conflicts have and could in the future materially affect our business, financial condition and results of operations
- Demand for our products and services may not increase or may decrease for many reasons, including resistance to the innovative and business-model-disruptive nature of some of our products and services
- Competition in the markets for our products and services is increasing
- Our success depends on our ability to quickly and profitably develop, manufacture, market, and obtain and maintain regulatory approvals or clearances of new, improved or refurbished products and services
- results of operations have and will continue to fluctuate in the future, and we may not accurately predict the timing and amount of customer demand and our revenues, costs, and expenditures
- Issues with IT system and software integration, implementation, updates, and upgrades, or third-party software have previously and could again in the future disrupt our operations
- A disruption in the operations of a primary freight carrier, higher shipping costs or shipping delays could disrupt our supply chain and impact our operating and financial results
- If we cannot attract, motivate, train or retain personnel, it will be difficult to achieve our strategic priorities, which could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations
- We are subject to various laws relating to privacy, data protection, data governance and cybersecurity, and face risks related to the data we collect, process, and share
- AI and machine learning technologies in our products, services and IT systems may result in legal and regulatory risks, reputational harm or have other adverse consequences to our business
- Our success depends in part on our proprietary technology, and if we fail to successfully obtain or enforce our IP rights, our competitive position may be harmed
- If our goodwill, finite-lived intangible or long-lived assets become impaired, we may be required to record material charges to income
- Changes in, or interpretations of, accounting rules and regulations, could result in unfavorable accounting charges
- Our effective tax rate may vary significantly from period to period, which could result in volatility of our operating results and adversely affect our financial results
- New tax laws and practices, changes to existing tax laws and practices, or disputes regarding the positions we take regarding tax laws, could negatively affect our provision for income taxes as well as our ongoing operations
- Historically, the market price for our common stock has been volatile
- We may not continue repurchasing our common stock and any repurchases may not achieve our desired objectives
- Future sales of significant amounts of our common stock may depress our stock price