Allstate (ALL)
Financials · $63.9B market cap · SEC CIK 0000899051
ahead of 97% of the S&P 500 · #1 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Feb 2, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $9.74 in earnings per share.
52-week range $191.13 to $281.11. 7% below its 52-week high and 37% above its low.
The case for ALL
- Cheap for its growth: 5.5× earnings, where 10%+ a year of growth plus a 2.6% dividend would justify about 27×.
- Earns 36% back on shareholder equity.
- Earnings per share up 42.4%.
- Pays a 2.6% dividend while you wait.
- Has compounded revenue at 10.1% a year over five years.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.11).
The case against
- Weakest against its peers: revenue growth of +5.1% is slower than 76% of Financials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 87 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 70 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 68 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 65 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 83 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +5.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +10.1% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $67.7B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | n/a |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 21% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 7.3% → 15.2% → 16.6% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $678M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $7.5B |
| Net debt | $6.8B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 5.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 27× |
| Forward P/E | 8.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 4.7× |
At 5.5× earnings it trades well below the 27× that 10%+ a year of growth plus a 2.6% dividend would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Allstate's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $67.7B | $64.1B | $57.1B | $51.4B | $50.6B |
| Change on the year | +6% | +12% | +11% | +2% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $9.9B | $8.7B | $4.0B | $4.7B | $4.8B |
| Of revenue | 15% | 14% | 7% | 9% | 9% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 15.2% | 7.3% | −0.3% | −2.5% | 3.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $678M | $704M | $722M | $736M | $763M |
| Long-term debt | $7.5B | $8.1B | $7.9B | $8.0B | $8.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$6.8B | −$7.4B | −$7.2B | −$7.2B | −$7.2B |
What Allstate says it does
Part I Part I Item 1. Business The Allstate Corporation was incorporated under the laws of the State of Delaware on November 5, 1992, to serve as the holding company for Allstate Insurance Company. Its business is conducted principally through Allstate Insurance Company and other subsidiaries (collectively, including The Allstate Corporation, “Allstate”). The Allstate Corporation is one of the largest publicly held personal lines insurers in the United States. Allstate’s strategy is to increase market share in personal property-liability and broaden protection offerings. The Allstate brand is widely known through the “You’re In Good Hands With Allstate®” slogan. The Allstate Corporation 1 2025 Form 10-K Item 1. Business Allstate at a Glance We empower customers with protection to help them achieve their hopes and dreams We provide affordable, simple and connected protection solutions We create opportunity for our team, economic value…
Risk factors ALL lists in its 10-K
- Property and casualty actual claim costs may exceed current reserves established for claims due to changes in the inflationary, regulatory and litigation environment
- Increases in the frequency or severity of property and casualty claims may adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition
- Catastrophes and severe weather events may subject us to significant losses
- Limitations in analytical models used to assess and predict the exposure to catastrophe losses may adversely affect the results of operations and financial condition
- Price competition and changes in regulation and underwriting standards in property and casualty businesses may adversely affect the results of operations and financial condition
- Determination of the fair value and amount of credit losses for investments includes subjective judgments and could materially impact the results of operations and financial condition
- Participation in indemnification programs subjects us to the risk that reimbursement for qualifying claims and claims expenses may not be received
- We may not be able to mitigate the impact associated with changes in capital requirements
- A downgrade in financial strength ratings may have an adverse effect on our business
- We operate in markets that are highly competitive
- Changing consumer preferences may adversely impact the demand for our products which may adversely impact the business
- Our business may also be adversely impacted by new or changing technologies and new business models affecting the auto insurance industry
- Our competitive position depends on our ability to successfully deploy advanced technologies
- Transformative Growth strategy may not be effective
- Our catastrophe management strategy may adversely affect premium growth
- The ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends may affect our liquidity and ability to meet our obligations
- Our ability to pay dividends or repurchase stock is subject to limitations under terms of certain of our securities
- Insufficient reinsurance capacity or reinsurance at unacceptable prices may limit our ability to profitably write business
- Reinsurance subjects us to counterparty risk and may not be adequate to protect us against losses arising from ceded insurance
- Acquisitions or divestitures of businesses may not produce anticipated benefits, resulting in operating difficulties, unforeseen liabilities or asset impairments
- We may be subject to the risks and costs associated with intellectual property infringement, misappropriation and third-party claims
- The failure of cyber or other information security controls, could result in a loss or disclosure of confidential information, damage to our reputation, additional costs and impair our ability to conduct business effectively
- Enterprise resilience is critical to the ability to restore business operations following a significant operational event
- Our ability to attract, develop, and retain talent to maintain appropriate staffing levels and a successful work culture is critical to our success
- Macro, regulatory and risk environment
- Capital and credit market conditions may significantly affect our ability to meet liquidity needs or obtain credit on acceptable terms
- Widespread disruptive or destabilizing events may have an adverse effect on our business
- Losses from changing climate and weather conditions may adversely affect financial condition, profitability or cash flows
- Our practices relating to environmental and social matters may not meet stakeholders' expectations
- Evolving privacy and data security regulation and increased focus on enforcement could impact our business, increase costs and any violations could subject us to regulatory fines and reputational impact
- Regulatory and federal agency reforms may make it more expensive for us to conduct our business
- Losses from legal and regulatory actions may be material to the results of operations, cash flows and financial condition
- Changes in or the application of accounting standards issued by standard-setting bodies and changes in tax laws may adversely affect results of operations and financial condition
- Misconduct or fraudulent acts by employees, agents and third parties may expose us to financial loss, disruption of business, regulatory assessments and reputational harm