Aon (AON)
Financials · $70.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0000315293
ahead of 76% of the S&P 500 · #20 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Jan 28, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $4.87 in earnings per share.
52-week range $266.33 to $382.34. 12% below its 52-week high and 26% above its low.
The case for AON
- Earns 40% back on shareholder equity.
- 22% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Earnings per share up 46.2%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.62).
The case against
- Weakest against its peers: revenue growth of +3.8% is slower than 83% of Financials companies.
- Its weakest area is the price trend (47/100): −1.5% over a year, −6.6% over three months, 12% below its 52-week high.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 58 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 65 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 77 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 47 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 62 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +3.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +9.2% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $17.2B (+9%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 49% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 33% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 16.9% → 21.5% → 22.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $1.2B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $14.7B |
| Net debt | $13.5B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 17.9× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 23× |
| Forward P/E | 16.1× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.3× |
At 17.9× earnings it trades below the 23× that 9% a year of growth plus a 0.7% dividend would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Aon's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $17.2B | $15.7B | $13.4B | $12.5B | $12.2B |
| Change on the year | +9% | +17% | +7% | +2% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $3.2B | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $2.0B |
| Of revenue | 19% | 18% | 24% | 24% | 17% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 25.3% | 24.4% | 28.3% | 29.4% | 17.1% |
| Net margin | 21.5% | 16.9% | 19.2% | 20.7% | 10.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.2B | $1.1B | $778M | $690M | $544M |
| Long-term debt | $14.7B | $16.3B | $10.0B | $9.8B | $8.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$13.5B | −$15.2B | −$9.2B | −$9.1B | −$7.7B |
What Aon says it does
OVERVIEW Aon plc (which may be referred to as “Aon,” the “Company,” “we,” “us,” or “our”) is a leading global professional services firm. Through actionable analytic insight, globally integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital expertise and locally relevant solutions, our colleagues provide clients with the clarity and confidence to make better risk and people decisions that protect and grow their businesses. With clients around the world facing growing uncertainty and volatility, we remain focused on accelerating our Aon United strategy to serve clients as one globally connected firm and driving innovation to address unmet and evolving client need. We serve clients in more than 120 countries across all market segments and nearly every industry. This diversification of our client base helps provide our firm with stability in different economic scenarios that could affect specific industries, customer segments, or geographies. We…
Risk factors AON lists in its 10-K
- An overall decline in economic and business activity could have a material adverse effect on the financial condition and results of operations of our business
- We face significant competitive pressures from traditional and non-traditional competitors that could affect our business
- If we are unable to effectively develop and implement innovative strategies, efficiencies and new solutions for our clients, our reputation, ability to compete effectively and financial condition may be adversely affected
- If our clients are not satisfied with our services, we may face additional cost, loss of profit opportunities, damage to our reputation, or legal liability
- Damage to our reputation could have a material adverse effect on our business
- Revenues from commission arrangements may fluctuate due to many factors, including cyclical or permanent changes in the insurance and reinsurance markets outside of our control
- We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates that could negatively impact our financial results and cash flows
- Changes in interest rates and deterioration of credit quality could reduce the value of our cash balances and investment portfolios and adversely affect our financial condition or results
- Our pension obligations and value of our pension assets could adversely affect our shareholders’ equity, net income, cash flow, and liquidity
- We have debt outstanding that could adversely affect our financial flexibility
- A decline in the credit ratings of our senior debt and commercial paper may adversely affect our borrowing costs, access to capital, and financial flexibility
- Changes in our accounting estimates and assumptions could negatively affect our financial position and results of operations
- We may be required to record goodwill or other long-lived asset impairment charges, which could result in a significant charge to earnings
- We are a holding company and, therefore, may not be able to receive dividends or other payments in needed amounts from our subsidiaries
- Our businesses are subject to extensive governmental regulation, which could reduce our profitability, limit our growth, or subject us to legal and regulatory actions
- Failure to protect our intellectual property rights, or allegations that we have infringed on the intellectual property rights of others, could harm our reputation, ability to compete effectively, and financial condition
- The economic and political conditions of the countries and regions in which we operate could have an adverse impact on our business, financial condition, operating results, liquidity, and prospects for growth
- We may not realize all of the expected benefits from our restructuring plan and other operational improvement initiatives
- Our success depends on our ability to retain, attract and develop experienced and qualified personnel, including our senior management team and other personnel
- Our global operations expose us to various international risks that could adversely affect our business
- The occurrence of natural or human-caused disasters could result in declines in business and increases in claims that could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations
- Our inability to successfully recover should we experience a disaster or other business continuity problem could cause material financial loss, loss of human capital, regulatory actions, reputational harm, or legal liability
- We rely on third parties to perform key functions of our business operations enabling our provision of services to our clients. These third parties may act in ways that could harm our business
- Our business is exposed to risks associated with the handling of client funds
- Improper disclosure of confidential, personal, or proprietary data could result in regulatory scrutiny, legal liability, or harm to our reputation
- Regulation in the areas of data privacy, data protection, data management, data transfer, data localization, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity could increase our costs and affect or limit our business opportunities
- We are incorporated in Ireland, and Irish law differs from the laws in effect in the U.S. and may afford less protection to holders of our securities
- As an Irish public limited company, certain capital structure decisions regarding the Company require the approval of shareholders, which may limit the Company’s flexibility to manage its capital structure
- Irish law requires us to have available “distributable profits” to pay dividends to shareholders and generally to make share repurchases and redemptions