Centene Corporation (CNC)
Health Care · $33.5B market cap · SEC CIK 0001071739
ahead of 51% of the S&P 500 · #30 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Feb 4, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting −$1.16 in earnings per share.
52-week range $31.63 to $78.08. 10% below its 52-week high and 122% above its low.
The case for CNC
- Holds more cash ($17.9B) than long-term debt ($17.4B).
- Free cash flow of 12.9% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Revenue growing 17.0% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 24.5% a year over five years.
- Up 88.0% over the past year.
- Price/sales of 0.2× is lower than 100% of Health Care companies.
The case against
- Losing money over the last year: net margin −3.3%.
- Return on equity of only 7%.
- Stability is weak (23/100): beta 1.04, 3.4 years of cash flow to clear its debt, a 59% swing over the year, a loss against its interest bill.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 75 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 83 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 15 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 80 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 23 |
- The P/E (23.0×) says it made money over the last year but its net margin (−3.3%) says it lost money, so the P/E is not counted in its favour.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +17.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +24.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $195B (+19%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? A little
| FY2025 free cash flow | $4.3B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 2% |
| Of profit | n/a |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 7% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | −4% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 2.0% → −3.4% → −3.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, more cash than debt
| Cash | $17.9B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $17.4B |
| Net cash | $537M |
| Years to repay | 3.4 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 23.0× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 41× |
| P/FCF | 7.8× |
| Forward P/E | 13.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.7× |
At 23.0× earnings it trades well below the 41× that 22% a year of growth would justify. At 7.8× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Centene Corporation's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $195B | $163B | $154B | $145B | $126B |
| Change on the year | +19% | +6% | +7% | +15% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $4.3B | −$490M | $7.3B | $5.3B | $3.3B |
| Of revenue | 2% | 0% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 7.3% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.5% |
| Operating margin | −3.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| Net margin | −3.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $17.9B | $14.1B | $17.2B | $12.1B | $13.1B |
| Long-term debt | $17.4B | $18.4B | $17.7B | $17.9B | $18.6B |
| Net cash (debt) | $537M | −$4.4B | −$517M | −$5.9B | −$5.5B |
What Centene Corporation says it does
OVERVIEW Our mission is to transform the health of the communities we serve, one person at a time. As the nation's largest managed care company focused on underserved populations, Centene is committed to helping people live healthier lives. Centene offers affordable and high-quality products to more than 1 in 15 individuals across the nation, including Medicaid and Medicare members (including Medicare Prescription Drug Plans) as well as individuals and families served by the Health Insurance Marketplace. Centene provides access to high-quality healthcare, innovative programs and a wide range of health solutions that help families and individuals get well, stay well and be well. We believe the best way to deliver healthcare is with a personal approach, with local brands and local teams who live in, care about and directly influence the communities they serve – a key differentiator in our ability to provide access to quality care for our…
Risk factors CNC lists in its 10-K
- Our Medicare programs are subject to a variety of unique risks that could adversely impact our financial results
- Increases in our pharmaceutical costs could have a material adverse effect on the level of our medical costs and our results of operations
- Ineffectiveness of state-operated systems and subcontractors could adversely affect our business
- If state regulators do not approve payments of dividends and distributions by our subsidiaries to us, we may not have sufficient funds to implement our business strategy
- Competition may limit our ability to increase penetration of the markets that we serve
- We operate in a highly competitive, dynamic and rapidly evolving industry and our failure to adapt could negatively impact our business
- If we are unable to maintain relationships with our provider networks and timely update our provider directories, our profitability may be materially adversely affected
- If we or our third-party vendors are unable to integrate and manage information systems and networks effectively, our operations could be disrupted
- We may be unable to attract, retain or effectively manage the succession of key personnel
- An impairment charge with respect to our recorded goodwill, intangible assets and real estate portfolio could have a material impact on our results of operations and shareholders' equity
- Significant changes to the ACA and the other government-sponsored healthcare programs in which we participate could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows
- Negative public perception of the managed care industry, including industry practices, could adversely affect our business, operating results, cash flows and prospects
- We have been and may from time to time become involved in costly and time-consuming litigation and other regulatory proceedings, which require significant attention from our management and could adversely affect our business
- If we fail to comply with the extensive federal and state fraud, waste and abuse laws, our business, reputation, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows could be materially and adversely affected
- We might be adversely impacted by tax legislation or challenges to our tax positions
- Our investment portfolio may suffer losses which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations or liquidity
- Adverse credit market conditions may have a material adverse effect on our liquidity or our ability to obtain credit on acceptable terms
- We have substantial indebtedness outstanding and may incur additional indebtedness in the future. Such indebtedness could reduce our agility and may adversely affect our financial condition
- Our business and results of operations may be materially adversely affected if we fail to manage and complete divestitures
- Previous or future acquisitions may not perform as expected and we may not realize the financial results expected from acquisitions or divestitures
- We may be unable to successfully integrate our existing business with acquired businesses and realize the anticipated benefits of such acquisitions