Coinbase (COIN)
Financials · $35.0B market cap · SEC CIK 0001679788
ahead of 9% of the S&P 500 · #75 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting −$0.02 in earnings per share.
52-week range $131.55 to $324.80. 59% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.
The case for COIN
- Earnings per share up 68.5%.
- Has compounded revenue at 41.2% a year over five years.
- Gross margin of 86% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Losing money over the last year: net margin −12.5%, return on equity −5%.
- Down 54.4% over the past year.
- Swings harder than the market (beta 3.47).
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 59% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
- Value is weak (39/100): 27.8× earnings against a fair 23× for its growth, 6.2× sales.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 39 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 94 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 17 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 10 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 18 |
- The P/E (27.8×) says it made money over the last year but its net margin (−12.5%) says it lost money, so the P/E is not counted in its favour.
- Its one-year revenue change (−27%) is far out of line with its five-year trend (+41% a year). In the Financials sector that is usually interest income swinging with rates rather than growth, so only the five-year figure is used.
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | −26.6%* |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +41.2% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.2B (+9%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 86% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 4% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 | 39.3% → 17.6% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $11.3B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $5.9B |
| Net cash | $5.3B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 27.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 23× |
| Forward P/E | 64.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 62.6× |
At 27.8× earnings it trades above the 23× that 10%+ a year of growth would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Coinbase's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $7.2B | $6.6B | $3.1B | $3.2B | $7.8B |
| Change on the year | +9% | +111% | −3% | −59% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −$1.6B | $4.0B |
| Of revenue | — | — | — | −50% | 51% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 20.0% | 35.1% | −5.2% | −84.8% | 39.2% |
| Net margin | 17.6% | 39.3% | 3.1% | −82.2% | 46.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $11.3B | $9.3B | $5.5B | $4.4B | $7.1B |
| Long-term debt | $5.9B | $4.2B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | $5.3B | $5.1B | $2.5B | $1.0B | $3.7B |
What Coinbase says it does
Coinbase Overview Our mission is to increase ec onomic freedom in the world. We are working to update the century-old financial system by providing a trusted platform that makes it easy for our customers to engage with crypto assets. In December 2025, we took a major step forward to becoming the Everything Exchange—dramatically expanding the assets available to trade on Coinbase, including stocks, commodity futures, perpetual futures, and prediction markets. Our goal is to create a comprehensive, seamless experience for retail users, institutions, and developers to engage in the future of finance. We differentiate ourselves from our competition with: • Trust : We are deeply invested in building the most secure and compliant platform. We hold customer assets one-to-one at all times. • Ease of use : We build easy-to-use products that our customers love. We obsess over quality and craft. We strive to make financial transactions easy. Our…
Risk factors COIN lists in its 10-K
- The Most Material Risks Related to Our Business and Financial Position
- Our operating results have and will significantly fluctuate, including due to the highly volatile nature of crypto
- Interest rate fluctuations could negatively impact us
- Cyberattacks and security breaches of our platform, or those impacting our customers or third parties, could adversely affect our brand, reputation, business, operating results, and financial condition
- We operate in a highly competitive industry and our business, operating results, and financial condition could be adversely affected if we are unable to compete effectively
- We compete against a growing number of decentralized and noncustodial platforms and our business, operating results, and financial condition could be adversely affected if we fail to compete effectively
- Note 21. Commitments and Contingencies
- We currently rely on third-party service providers for certain aspects of our operations, and any interruptions in services provided by these third parties may impair our ability to support our customers
- Loss of a critical financial institution or insurance relationship could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- Our failure to securely store and manage our and our customers’ fiat currencies and crypto assets could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- If we do not effectively manage our growth, including through acquisitions and by maintaining and improving our systems and processes, our business, operating results, and financial condition could be adversely affected
- Our strategy and focus on delivering high-quality, compliant, easy-to-use, and secure crypto-related financial services may not maximize short-term or medium-term financial results
- Because our long-term success depends, in part, on our ability to expand our sales to customers outside the United States, our business is susceptible to risks associated with international operations
- Disputes with our customers could adversely affect our brand, reputation, business, operating results, and financial condition
- We may suffer losses due to staking, delegating, and other related services we provide to our customers
- We provide secured loans to our customers, which exposes us to credit risks and may cause us to incur financial or reputational harm
- We are exposed to transaction losses due to chargebacks, refunds, or returns as a result of fraud or uncollectability that could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- If we fail to develop, maintain, and enhance our brand and reputation, our business, operating results, and financial condition could be adversely affected
- Our compliance and risk management methods might not be effective and may result in outcomes that could adversely affect our reputation, operating results, and financial condition
- We hold certain investments in DeFi protocols and may suffer losses if they do not function as expected
- We may suffer losses due to abrupt and erratic market movements
- Due to unfamiliarity and some negative publicity associated with crypto asset platforms, confidence or interest in crypto asset platforms may decline
- A temporary or permanent blockchain “fork” to any supported crypto asset could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- If miners or validators of any supported crypto asset demand high transaction fees, our business, operating results, and financial condition could be adversely affected
- Future developments regarding the treatment of crypto assets for U.S. and foreign tax purposes could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- Our tax information reporting obligations with respect to crypto transactions may be subject to further scrutiny in light of the implementation of the U.S. and global broker reporting regime for tax reporting
- Issues relating to the development and use of AI in our business could result in reputational harm, competitive harm, and legal liability, and could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- Our current and future services are dependent on payment networks and acquiring processors, and any changes to their rules or practices could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- Our intellectual property rights are valuable, and any inability to protect them could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- We have been, and in the future may be, sued by third parties for alleged infringement of their proprietary rights
- Our platform contains third-party open source software components, and failure to comply with the terms of the underlying open source software licenses could harm our business
- The loss of one or more of our key personnel, or our failure to attract and retain other highly qualified personnel in the future, could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- Our culture emphasizes innovation, and if we cannot maintain this culture, our business, operating results, and financial condition could be adversely affected
- In the event of employee or service provider misconduct or error, our business, operating results, and financial condition could be adversely affected
- Adverse economic conditions could adversely affect our business
- We are a remote-first company which subjects us to heightened operational risks
- Environmental, social, and governance factors may impose additional costs and expose us to new risks
- Changes in U.S. and foreign tax laws, as well as the application of such laws, could adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition
- Our ability to use our deferred tax assets may be subject to certain limitations under U.S. or foreign law
- We are exposed to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates
- If our estimates or judgment relating to our critical accounting estimates prove to be incorrect, our operating results could be adversely affected
- We may require additional capital to support business growth, and this capital might not be available
- The market price of our Class A common stock may be volatile, and could decline significantly and rapidly. Market volatility may affect the value of an investment in our Class A common stock and could subject us to litigation
- The dual class structure of our common stock may adversely affect the trading market for our Class A common stock
- Sales or distribution of substantial amounts of our Class A common stock, or the perception that such sales or distributions might occur, could cause the market price of our Class A common stock to decline
- If securities or industry analysts do not publish or cease publishing research, or publish inaccurate or unfavorable research, about our business, the price of our Class A common stock and its liquidity could decline
- We cannot guarantee that the Repurchase Program will be fully consummated or that such program will enhance the long-term value of our Class A common stock price