Dexcom (DXCM)
Health Care · $30.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0001093557
ahead of 95% of the S&P 500 · #5 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Feb 10, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.73 in earnings per share.
52-week range $54.11 to $92.59. 14% below its 52-week high and 48% above its low.
The case for DXCM
- Earns 37% back on shareholder equity.
- Generated $1.1B of free cash flow in FY2025, 23% of revenue.
- Revenue growing 13.0% year over year.
- Earnings per share up 43.2%.
- Has compounded revenue at 19.3% a year over five years.
- Gross margin of 65% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Weakest against its peers: price/sales of 5.9× is higher than 69% of Health Care companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 62 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 82 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 83 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 62 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 62 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +13.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +19.3% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.7B (+16%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 23% |
| Of profit | 129% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 65% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 24% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 14.3% → 17.9% → 19.4% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $918M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
| Debt / equity | 0.51× |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 30.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 29× |
| P/FCF | 28.1× |
| Forward P/E | 26.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 20.4× |
At 30.5× earnings it trades close to the 29× that 14% a year of growth would justify. At 28.1× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Dexcom's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $4.7B | $4.0B | $3.6B | $2.9B | $2.4B |
| Change on the year | +16% | +11% | +24% | +19% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.1B | $631M | $512M | $305M | $53.3M |
| Of revenue | 23% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 2% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 60.1% | 60.5% | 63.2% | 64.7% | 68.6% |
| Operating margin | 19.6% | 14.9% | 16.5% | 13.4% | 10.9% |
| Net margin | 17.9% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 8.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $918M | $606M | $566M | $642M | $1.1B |
What Dexcom says it does
Overview We are a medical device company primarily focused on the design, development and commercialization of continuous glucose monitoring, or CGM, systems for the management of diabetes and metabolic health by patients, caregivers, and clinicians around the world. We received approval from the Food and Drug Administration, or FDA, and commercialized our first product in 2006. We launched our latest generation systems, the Dexcom G7 Continuous Glucose Monitoring System, or G7, in 2023, and the Dexcom G7 15 Day Continuous Glucose Monitoring System, or G7 15 Day, in late 2025. In August 2024, we launched Stelo, our biosensor designed for adults with prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin, as the first over-the-counter glucose biosensor in the U.S. Unless the context requires otherwise, the terms “we,” “us,” “our,” the “company,” or “Dexcom” refer to DexCom, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Products Dexcom G7 and G7 15 Day In…
Risk factors DXCM lists in its 10-K
- Our products may not achieve or maintain market acceptance
- If our manufacturing capabilities are insufficient to produce an adequate supply of product at appropriate quality levels, our growth could be limited and our business could be harmed
- Manufacturing difficulties and/or any disruption at our facilities may adversely affect our manufacturing operations and related product sales, and increase our expenses
- We depend upon third-party suppliers and outsource to other parties, making us vulnerable to supply disruptions, suboptimal quality, non-compliance and/or price fluctuations, which could harm our business
- We operate in a highly competitive market and face competition from large, well-established companies with significant resources, and, as a result, we may not be able to compete effectively
- We are subject to risks associated with public health issues, including pandemics, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations
- We are subject to a variety of risks due to our international operations that could adversely affect our business, our operations or profitability and operating results
- Laws and regulations governing the export of our products could adversely impact our business
- The failure to comply with U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and similar worldwide anti-bribery laws in non-U.S. jurisdictions could materially adversely affect our business and result in civil and/or criminal sanctions
- Failure to obtain any required regulatory authorization in international jurisdictions will prevent us from marketing our products abroad
- Security breaches and other disruptions that compromise our information and expose us to liability could cause our business and reputation to suffer and could subject us to substantial liabilities
- Cyberattacks aimed at accessing our devices, products, and services, or related devices, products, and services, and modifying or using them in a way inconsistent with our FDA clearances and approvals could create risks to users
- Quality problems could lead to recalls or safety alerts, reputational harm, and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Potential long-term complications from our current or future products or other CGM systems under development may not be revealed by our clinical experience to date
- Managed care trends and consolidation in the health care industry could have an adverse effect on our revenues and results of operations
- Changes to the regulatory landscape may impact our ability to obtain marketing authorization for future product developments
- Health care policy changes, including U.S. health care reform legislation, may have a material adverse effect on our business
- Our inability to adequately protect our intellectual property could allow our competitors and others to produce products based on our technology, which could substantially impair our ability to compete
- We face the risk of product liability claims and may be subject to damages, fines, penalties and injunctions, among other things
- We could become the subject of governmental investigations, claims and litigation
- In some instances in our advertising and promotion, we may make claims regarding our product as compared to competing products, which may subject us to heightened regulatory scrutiny, enforcement risk, and litigation risks
- Direct-to-consumer marketing and social media efforts may expose us to additional regulatory scrutiny
- We have incurred significant losses in the past and may incur losses in the future
- Our success will depend on our ability to attract and retain our personnel and manage our human capital, while controlling labor costs
- We may conduct additional financings to continue the development or commercialization of our current or future products
- Changes in our business strategy or restructuring of our businesses may increase our costs or otherwise affect the profitability of our businesses or the value of our assets
- We may face risks associated with acquisitions of companies, products and technologies and our business could be harmed if we are unable to address these risks
- Compliance with regulations relating to public company corporate governance matters and reporting may strain our resources and divert management’s attention
- We could be subject to changes in our tax rates, new U.S. or international tax legislation or additional tax liabilities
- Our ability to use our net operating losses to offset future taxable income may be subject to certain limitations which could subject our business to higher tax liability
- Our stock price is highly volatile and investing in our stock involves a high degree of risk, which could result in substantial losses for investors
- The issuance of shares by us in the future or sales of shares by our stockholders may cause the market price of our common stock to drop significantly, even if our business is performing well
- We do not intend to pay dividends for the foreseeable future
- Anti-takeover effects of our charter documents and Delaware law could make a merger, tender offer or proxy contest difficult, thereby depressing the trading price of our common stock
- We cannot guarantee that the 2025 Share Repurchase Program will be fully consummated or that such program will enhance the long-term value of our share price
- Increasing our financial leverage could affect our operations and profitability
- Failure to comply with covenants in the Amended Credit Agreement could result in our inability to borrow additional funds and adversely impact our business
- We have indebtedness in the form of convertible senior notes, which could adversely affect our financial health and our ability to respond to changes in our business
- We may still incur substantially more debt or take other actions which would intensify the risks discussed above
- The capped call transactions we entered into in connection with the pricing of the 2028 Notes may affect the value of our 2028 Notes and common stock
- We are subject to counterparty risk with respect to the 2028 Capped Calls
- Servicing our debt requires a significant amount of cash, and we may not have sufficient cash flow from our business to pay our substantial debt
- Our Amended Credit Agreement imposes restrictions on us that may adversely affect our ability to operate our business
- The conditional conversion feature of the Notes, if triggered, may adversely affect our financial condition and operating results
- The accounting method for convertible debt securities that may be settled in cash, such as the Notes, may have a material effect on our reported financial results
- The fundamental change repurchase feature of the Notes may delay or prevent an otherwise beneficial attempt to take over Dexcom
- Sustainability (including environmental, social and governance) regulations, policies and provisions could expose us to numerous risks
- Climate change may have an adverse impact on our business
- We may be liable for contamination or other harm caused by materials that we handle, and changes in environmental regulations could cause us to incur additional expense
- We may be adversely affected by the effects of inflation
- If we are unable to successfully maintain effective internal control over financial reporting, investors may lose confidence in our reported financial information and our stock price and our business may be adversely impacted
- Changes in financial accounting standards or practices or existing taxation rules or practices may cause adverse unexpected revenue and/or expense fluctuations and affect our reported results of operations
- If our financial performance fails to meet the expectations of investors and public market analysts, the market price of our common stock could decline