Ecolab (ECL)
Materials · $86.0B market cap · SEC CIK 0000031462
ahead of 56% of the S&P 500 · #10 of 26 in Materials
Next reports on Feb 8, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.21 in earnings per share.
52-week range $243.15 to $318.93. 4% below its 52-week high and 26% above its low.
The case for ECL
- Revenue growing 9.3% year over year.
- Return on equity of 21%.
- Pays a modest 1.1% dividend.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 47.2× mid-cycle earnings, where 7% a year of growth plus a 1.1% dividend would justify about 21×.
- Long-term debt of $7.4B against $646M of cash.
- Price/sales of 5.0× is higher than 88% of Materials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 24 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 55 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 70 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 74 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 75 |
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +9.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +6.4% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $16.1B (+2%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.9B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 12% |
| Of profit | 92% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 44% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 17% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 13.4% → 12.9% → 12.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $646M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $7.4B |
| Net debt | $6.7B |
| Years to repay | 2.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 41.3× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 47.2× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 21× |
| P/FCF | 45.2× |
| Forward P/E | 33.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 27.2× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 47.2× those mid-cycle earnings (41.3× the latest year's) it trades well above the 21× that 7% a year of growth plus a 1.1% dividend would justify. At 45.2× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Ecolab's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $16.1B | $15.7B | $15.3B | $14.2B | $12.7B |
| Change on the year | +2% | +3% | +8% | +11% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.6B | $1.1B | $1.4B |
| Of revenue | 12% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 11% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 17.0% | 17.8% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 12.6% |
| Net margin | 12.9% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $646M | $1.3B | $920M | $599M | $360M |
| Long-term debt | $7.4B | $6.9B | $7.6B | $8.1B | $8.3B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$6.7B | −$5.7B | −$6.6B | −$7.5B | −$8.0B |
What Ecolab says it does
Development of Business. Ecolab was incorporated as a Delaware corporation in 1924. Our fiscal year is the calendar year ending December 31. International subsidiaries are included in the consolidated financial statements on the basis of their U.S. GAAP (accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America) November 30 fiscal year ends to facilitate the timely inclusion of such entities in our consolidated financial reporting. Narrative Description of Business. General A trusted partner for millions of customers, we are a global leader in water, hygiene and infection prevention solutions and services that protect people and the resources vital to life. For more than a century, we have advanced innovation by integrating science-based solutions, data-driven insights, AI-technology and world-class service. This unique combination enables us to partner with customers to define what best-in-class looks like and scale it…
Risk factors ECL lists in its 10-K
- Our results are impacted by general worldwide economic factors
- Our results depend upon the continued vitality of the markets we serve
- Our significant non-U.S. operations expose us to global economic, political and legal risks that could impact our profitability
- Our increasing reliance on artificial intelligence (“AI”) technologies in our products, services, and operations presents several risks that could adversely impact our business, financial condition, and results of operations
- We are subject to information technology system failures, network disruptions and breaches in data security
- Our results could be materially and adversely affected by difficulties in securing the supply of certain raw materials or by fluctuations in the cost of raw materials
- We may experience business disruption if we fail to execute organizational change and management transitions
- Severe public health outbreaks not limited to COVID-19 may adversely impact our business
- If we are unsuccessful in integrating acquisitions our business could be materially and adversely affected
- If we are unsuccessful in executing on key business initiatives, our business could be materially and adversely affected
- Our growth depends upon our ability to compete successfully with respect to value, innovation and customer support
- Consolidation of our customers and vendors could materially and adversely affect our results
- We enter into multi-year contracts with customers that could impact our results
- Our operations may present a safety risk to our employees and others
- A chemical spill or release could materially and adversely impact our business
- Potential indemnification liabilities pursuant to the separation and split-off of our Upstream Energy business could materially and adversely affect our business and financial statements
- Extraordinary events may significantly impact our business
- Our commitments, goals, targets, objectives and initiatives related to sustainability, and our public statements and disclosures regarding them, expose us to numerous risks
- Changes in tax laws and unanticipated tax liabilities could materially and adversely affect the taxes we pay and our profitability
- Future events may impact our deferred tax position, including the utilization of foreign tax credits and undistributed earnings of international affiliates that are considered to be reinvested indefinitely
- Our indebtedness may limit our operations and our use of our cash flow, and any failure to comply with the covenants that apply to our indebtedness could materially and adversely affect our liquidity and financial statements