Nucor (NUE)
Materials · $57.9B market cap · SEC CIK 0000073309
ahead of 75% of the S&P 500 · #5 of 26 in Materials
Next reports on Jan 25, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $6.13 in earnings per share.
52-week range $140.93 to $287.70. 11% below its 52-week high and 82% above its low.
The case for NUE
- Revenue up 21.8% on the year.
- Cheap for its growth: 8.9× mid-cycle earnings, where 8%+ a year of growth plus a 1.3% dividend would justify about 22×.
- Has compounded revenue at 10.0% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 16%.
- Current assets cover the near-term bills 2.5 times over.
- Pays a modest 1.3% dividend.
The case against
- Burned $188M of free cash in FY2025.
- Swings harder than the market (beta 1.86).
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 69 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 81 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 46 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 67 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 46 |
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +21.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +10.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $32.5B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$188M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −1% |
| Of profit | −11% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 17% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 13% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 6.6% → 5.4% → 9.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $2.3B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $6.9B |
| Net debt | $4.6B |
| Years to repay | 2.1 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Mixed: cheap on earnings, dear on cash
| P/E | 16.1× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 8.9× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 22× |
| P/FCF | no free cash flow |
| Forward P/E | 13.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.6× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 8.9× those mid-cycle earnings (16.1× the latest year's) it trades well below the 22× that 8%+ a year of growth plus a 1.3% dividend would justify. Its free cash flow is negative, which counts against it.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Nucor's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $32.5B | $30.7B | $34.7B | $41.5B | $36.5B |
| Change on the year | +6% | −11% | −16% | +14% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$188M | $806M | $4.9B | $8.1B | $4.6B |
| Of revenue | −1% | 3% | 14% | 20% | 13% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 5.4% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $2.3B | $3.6B | $6.4B | $4.3B | $2.4B |
| Long-term debt | $6.9B | $5.7B | $6.6B | $6.6B | $5.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$4.6B | −$2.1B | −$266M | −$2.3B | −$2.6B |
Risk factors NUE lists in its 10-K
- Overcapacity in the global steel industry could increase the level of steel imports into the United States, which may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Our industry is cyclical and both recessions and prolonged periods of slow economic growth may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Competition from other steel producers, imports or alternative materials may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Our business requires substantial capital investment and maintenance expenditures, and our capital resources may not be adequate to provide for all of our cash requirements
- Changes in the availability and cost of electricity and natural gas are subject to volatile market conditions which may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Our business and results of operations may be negatively affected by volatility in steel prices and the cost and availability of raw materials, particularly scrap steel
- Environmental regulation compliance and remediation could result in substantially increased costs and materially adversely impact our competitive position
- Emerging customer preferences for greater product transparency and less GHG intensive materials may put us at a competitive disadvantage as a carbon steel producer
- We are subject to information technology and cybersecurity threats which could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations
- Our operations are subject to business interruptions and casualty losses
- We acquire businesses and enter into joint ventures from time to time and we may encounter difficulties in integrating businesses we acquire
- Risks associated with operating in international markets may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- Pandemics, epidemics and other public health emergencies in the future, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows
- The accounting treatment of equity method investments, goodwill and other long-lived assets could result in future asset impairments, which would reduce our earnings
- Tax increases and changes in tax laws and regulations or exposure to additional tax liabilities may negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial conditions and cash flows
- We are subject to legal proceedings and legal compliance risks