Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Materials · $33.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0001022671
ahead of 74% of the S&P 500 · #6 of 26 in Materials
Next reports on Jan 25, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $5.94 in earnings per share.
52-week range $150.22 to $288.74. 18% below its 52-week high and 57% above its low.
The case for STLD
- Revenue up 26.0% on the year.
- Cheap for its growth: 11.1× mid-cycle earnings, where 8%+ a year of growth plus a 1.5% dividend would justify about 22×.
- Has compounded revenue at 13.6% a year over five years.
- Return on equity of 21%.
- Current assets cover the near-term bills 3.1 times over.
- Pays a modest 1.5% dividend.
The case against
- Only 42% of FY2025's $1.2B profit arrived as free cash.
- Long-term debt of $4.2B against $770M of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 56 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 87 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 57 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 57 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 50 |
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +26.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +13.6% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $18.2B (+4%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Less than its profits suggest
| FY2025 free cash flow | $502M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 3% |
| Of profit | 42% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 16% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 12% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 8.8% → 6.5% → 8.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $770M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $4.2B |
| Net debt | $3.4B |
| Years to repay | 2.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Mixed: cheap on earnings, dear on cash
| P/E | 17.0× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 11.1× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 22× |
| P/FCF | 66.5× |
| Forward P/E | 11.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.2× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 11.1× those mid-cycle earnings (17.0× the latest year's) it trades well below the 22× that 8%+ a year of growth plus a 1.5% dividend would justify. At 66.5× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Steel Dynamics's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $18.2B | $17.5B | $18.8B | $22.3B | $18.4B |
| Change on the year | +4% | −7% | −16% | +21% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $502M | −$23.5M | $1.9B | $3.6B | $1.2B |
| Of revenue | 3% | 0% | 10% | 16% | 7% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 13.2% | 16.0% | 21.5% | 27.5% | 29.1% |
| Operating margin | 8.1% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 22.9% | 23.4% |
| Net margin | 6.5% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $770M | $589M | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.2B |
| Long-term debt | $4.2B | $2.8B | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$3.4B | −$2.2B | −$1.2B | −$1.4B | −$1.8B |
What Steel Dynamics says it does
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States and Mexico. The company operates a circular manufacturing model, producing high-quality, lower-carbon-emission products with recycled scrap as the primary input. Steel Dynamics is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metals recyclers in North America based on estimated steelmaking and steel coating capacity of approximately 16 million tons and actual metals recycling volumes as of December 31, 2025, with one of the most diversified product and end market portfolios in the domestic steel industry, combined with a meaningful downstream steel fabrication platform. The company also has aluminum operations, further diversifying its product offerings to supply aluminum flat rolled products with higher recycled content to the countercyclical, sustainable beverage can industry, as well as the automotive and…
Risk factors STLD lists in its 10-K
- Global and National Risks Related to our Business
- Industry Risks Related to our Business
- Operational and Commercial Risks Related to our Business