Newmont (NEM)
Materials · $125B market cap · SEC CIK 0001164727
ahead of 99% of the S&P 500 · #2 of 26 in Materials
Next reports on Feb 17, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.03 in earnings per share.
52-week range $81.34 to $135.29. 11% below its 52-week high and 47% above its low.
The case for NEM
- Revenue up 23.7% on the year.
- Earns 26% back on shareholder equity.
- Generated $7.3B of free cash flow in FY2025, 32% of revenue.
- 35% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Holds more cash ($7.6B) than long-term debt ($5.1B).
- Has compounded revenue at 14.5% a year over five years.
The case against
- Weakest against its peers: price/sales of 4.7× is higher than 84% of Materials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 67 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 78 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 88 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 74 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 89 |
- Its dividend figures disagree with each other (a 4.3% yield against about 0.9% implied by its payout ratio and P/E), so the dividend is not counted.
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +23.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +14.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $22.7B (+21%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $7.3B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 32% |
| Of profit | 103% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 69% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 52% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 17.9% → 31.3% → 34.7% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, more cash than debt
| Cash | $7.6B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $5.1B |
| Net cash | $2.5B |
| Years to repay | 0.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 13.5× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 21.7× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 20× |
| P/FCF | 17.1× |
| Forward P/E | 10.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.4× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 21.7× those mid-cycle earnings (13.5× the latest year's) it trades close to the 20× that 8%+ a year of growth would justify. At 17.1× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Newmont's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $22.7B | $18.7B | $11.8B | $11.9B | $12.2B |
| Change on the year | +21% | +58% | −1% | −3% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $7.3B | $3.0B | $97.0M | $1.1B | $2.6B |
| Of revenue | 32% | 16% | 1% | 9% | 21% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 31.3% | 17.9% | −21.1% | −3.6% | 9.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $7.6B | $3.6B | $3.0B | $2.9B | $5.0B |
| Long-term debt | $5.1B | $7.6B | $7.0B | $5.6B | $5.6B |
| Net cash (debt) | $2.5B | −$3.9B | −$3.9B | −$2.7B | −$573M |
What Newmont says it does
(dollars in millions, except per share, per ounce and per pound amounts) Introduction Newmont Corporation was incorporated in 1921 and is primarily a gold producer with significant operations and/or assets in the United States, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Canada. At December 31, 2025, Newmont had attributable proven and probable gold reserves of 118.2 million ounces, attributable measured and indicated gold resources of 88.1 million ounces, attributable inferred gold resources of 60.6 million ounces, and an aggregate land position of approximately 19,200 square miles (49,800 square kilometers). Newmont is also engaged in the production of copper, silver, lead, and zinc. As the world’s leading gold company, Newmont remains committed to creating value and improving lives through sustainable and responsible mining. Newmont’s corporate headquarters are in…
Risk factors NEM lists in its 10-K
- A substantial or extended decline in gold, copper, silver, lead or zinc prices would have a material adverse effect on us
- We may be unable to replace gold, copper, silver, lead or zinc reserves as they become depleted
- Estimates of proven and probable reserves and measured, indicated and inferred resources are uncertain and the volume and grade of ore actually recovered may vary from our estimates
- Estimates relating to projects and mine plans of existing operations are uncertain and we may incur higher costs and lower economic returns than estimated
- Increased operating and capital costs could affect our profitability
- Mine closure, reclamation and remediation costs for environmental liabilities may exceed the provisions we have made
- To the extent we hold or acquire interests in any joint ventures or enter into any joint ventures, our interest in these properties is subject to the risks normally associated with the conduct of joint ventures
- Our operations and business have in the past been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and may be materially and adversely impacted in the future by pandemics, epidemics and other health emergencies
- Increased exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations and capital controls may adversely affect Newmont’s costs, earnings and the value of some of our assets
- Our operations in Argentina are susceptible to risk as a result of economic and political instability in Argentina and labor unrest
- Our operations at Ahafo South and Ahafo North in Ghana are subject to political, economic, security and other risks
- Our Merian operation in Suriname is subject to political, security and economic risks
- Our operations at Lihir and project at Wafi-Golpu in PNG are subject to political and regulatory risks and other uncertainties
- Our operations and projects Canada are subject to legal and regulatory risks and other uncertainties in connection with claims and challenges by Indigenous groups
- Future funding requirements may affect our business, our ability to pursue new business opportunities, invest in existing and new projects, pay cash dividends or engage in share repurchase transactions
- Holders of our common stock may not receive dividends
- Our long-lived assets and goodwill could become impaired, which could have a material non-cash adverse effect on our results of operations
- Our ability to recognize the benefits of deferred tax assets is dependent on future cash flows and taxable income
- Any downgrade in the credit ratings assigned to our debt securities could increase our future borrowing costs and adversely affect the availability of new financing
- Returns for investments in pension plans are uncertain
- We may experience increased costs or losses resulting from the hazards and uncertainties associated with mining
- Mining operations involve a high degree of risk, including hazards related to the use of explosives and hazardous chemicals and critical equipment failure
- We rely on contractors to conduct a significant portion of our operations and construction projects”
- Our operations and projects may be adversely affected by rising energy prices or energy shortages
- We may be unable to obtain or retain necessary permits and land or mining tenure, which could adversely affect our operations and projects
- Our Company and the mining industry are facing continued geotechnical, geothermal and hydrogeological challenges, which could adversely impact our production and profitability
- Title to some of our properties may be insufficient, defective, or challenged
- Mining companies are increasingly required to consider and provide benefits to the communities and countries in which they operate in order to maintain operations
- Illegal mining and artisanal mining occur on or adjacent to certain of our properties exposing such sites to security risks
- Civil disturbances and criminal activities can disrupt business and expose the Company to liability
- Our operations and projects face substantial regulation of health and safety
- Our operations and projects are subject to extensive environmental laws and regulations
- Our operations and projects are dependent on the availability of sufficient water supplies and subject to water-related risk
- Tailings Storage Facilities and Dust Emissions at Cadia
- Environmental Sampling in the Cadia Area
- Our operations and projects are subject to a range of risks related to transitioning the business to meet regulatory, societal and investor expectations for operating in a low-carbon economy
- Our operations and projects are subject to a range of transitional and physical risks related to climate change
- Environmental Matters - Minera Yanacocha S.R.L
- Our operations and projects are subject to risks related to our relationships and/or agreements with local communities, including Indigenous Peoples, and laws for the protection of cultural heritage
- Our operations and projects are subject to risks of doing business in multiple jurisdictions
- New or changing legislation and tax risks in certain operating jurisdictions could negatively affect us
- Changes in mining or investment policies or shifts in political and social attitudes in the jurisdictions in which we operate may adversely affect our operations or profitability
- Our operations at Yanacocha and projects in Peru are subject to political and social unrest risks
- Our business depends on good relations with our employees
- Our operations and projects in Canada are subject to legal and regulatory risks and other uncertainties in connection with claims and challenges by Indigenous groups
- Our Peñasquito operation in Mexico is subject to social, political, regulatory, and economic risks
- have in the past been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and may be materially and adversely impacted in the future by pandemics, epidemics and other health emergencies.”
- Unanticipated litigation or negative developments in pending litigation or with respect to other contingencies may adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations
- Illegal mining and artisanal mining occurs on or adjacent to certain of our properties exposing such sites to security risks
- “Civil disturbances and criminal activities can disrupt business and expose the Company to liability”
- The price of our common stock may be volatile, which may make it difficult for you to sell the common stock at the price you paid or at prices you find attractive
- Holders of our common stock, CDIs and PDIs may not receive dividends
- Compliance with exchange listing rules as a foreign exempt listing may differ from investor expectations
- We may not receive any or all deferred or contingent consideration for divested assets
- We are subject to ongoing indemnification and other retained liabilities from both recent and historical transactions