Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
Financials · $12.6B market cap · SEC CIK 0000922621
ahead of 33% of the S&P 500 · #57 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Feb 22, 2027, with analysts expecting $2.88 in earnings per share.
52-week range $204.63 to $301.61. 10% below its 52-week high and 33% above its low.
The case for ERIE
- Return on equity of 24%.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.22).
- Pays a modest 1.6% dividend.
The case against
- Earnings per share fell 15.5%.
- Profitability is weak (40/100): return on equity 24%, net margin 14.0%, gross margin 18%.
- Revenue grew only 2.0%, roughly the pace of inflation.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 54 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 36 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 40 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 58 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 76 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +2.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +9.9% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.1B (+7%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 18% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 18% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 15.8% → 13.8% → 14.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $346M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 21.9× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 25× |
| Forward P/E | 20.1× |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.8× |
At 21.9× earnings it trades close to the 25× that 9% a year of growth plus a 1.6% dividend would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Erie Indemnity's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $4.1B | $3.8B | $3.3B | $2.8B | $2.6B |
| Change on the year | +7% | +16% | +15% | +8% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $571M | $486M | $289M | $299M | $254M |
| Of revenue | 14% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 10% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 17.6% | 17.8% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 12.1% |
| Net margin | 13.8% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $346M | $298M | $144M | $142M | $184M |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | $0 | $91.7M |
| Net cash (debt) | — | — | — | $142M | $92.0M |
What Erie Indemnity says it does
Erie Indemnity Company ("Indemnity", "we", "us", "our") is a publicly held Pennsylvania business corporation that has since its incorporation in 1925 served as the attorney-in-fact for the subscribers (policyholders) at the Erie Insurance Exchange ("Exchange"). The Exchange, which also commenced business in 1925, is a Pennsylvania-domiciled reciprocal insurer that writes property and casualty insurance. The Exchange has wholly owned property and casualty insurance subsidiaries including: Erie Insurance Company, Erie Insurance Company of New York, Erie Insurance Property & Casualty Company and Flagship City Insurance Company, and a wholly owned life insurance company, Erie Family Life Insurance Company ("EFL"). Our primary function as attorney-in-fact is to perform policy issuance and renewal services on behalf of the subscribers at the Exchange. We also act as attorney-in-fact on behalf of the subscribers at the Exchange with respect…
Risk factors ERIE lists in its 10-K
- If the costs of providing services to the Exchange are not controlled, our profitability could be materially adversely affected
- If we are unable to attract, develop, retain, and protect talented executives, key managers, and employees our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected
- If we are unable to effectively maintain system availability or manage technology initiatives, we may experience adverse financial consequences and/or may be unable to compete effectively
- If events occurred causing interruption of our operations, facilities, systems or business functions, it could have a material adverse effect on our operations and financial results
- The performance of our investment portfolio is subject to a variety of investment risks, which may in turn have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition
- Deteriorating capital and credit market conditions or a failure to accurately estimate capital needs may significantly affect our ability to meet liquidity needs and access capital