HCA Healthcare (HCA)
Health Care · $106B market cap · SEC CIK 0000860730
ahead of 88% of the S&P 500 · #10 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Jan 25, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $8.28 in earnings per share.
52-week range $353.99 to $556.52. 9% below its 52-week high and 42% above its low.
The case for HCA
- Cheap for its growth: 15.6× earnings, where 12% a year of growth plus a 1.0% dividend would justify about 27×.
- Free cash flow of 7.3% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Earns 11% a year on everything it owns (return on assets).
- Gross margin of 85% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Owes more than it owns: shareholder equity is −$6.0B, usually the result of buybacks funded with debt. ROE and price-to-book mean little here.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.82).
- Long-term debt of $41.6B against $1.0B of cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 88 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 66 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 66 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 72 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 33 |
- Shareholder equity is negative, so return on equity, price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +5.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $75.6B (+7%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $7.7B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 10% |
| Of profit | 113% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 85% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 15% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 8.2% → 9.0% → 8.6% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $1.0B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $41.6B |
| Net debt | $40.6B |
| Years to repay | 3.3 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 15.6× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 27× |
| P/FCF | 13.7× |
| Forward P/E | 15.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.8× |
At 15.6× earnings it trades well below the 27× that 12% a year of growth plus a 1.0% dividend would justify. At 13.7× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from HCA Healthcare's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $75.6B | $70.6B | $65.0B | $60.2B | $58.8B |
| Change on the year | +7% | +9% | +8% | +3% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $7.7B | $5.6B | $4.7B | $4.1B | $5.4B |
| Of revenue | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 9% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.8% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.0B | $1.9B | $935M | $908M | $1.5B |
| Long-term debt | $41.6B | $38.3B | $37.2B | $37.7B | $34.3B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$40.6B | −$36.4B | −$36.2B | −$36.8B | −$32.9B |
What HCA Healthcare says it does
HCA Healthcare, Inc. is one of the leading health care services companies in the United States. At December 31, 2025, we operated 190 hospitals, comprised of 179 general acute care hospitals, seven behavioral hospitals, and four rehabilitation hospitals. In addition, we operated 121 freestanding ambulatory surgery centers (“ASCs”) and 31 freestanding endoscopy centers. Our facilities are located in 19 states and England. The terms “Company,” “HCA,” “HCA Healthcare,” “we,” “our” or “us,” as used herein and unless otherwise stated or indicated by context, refer to HCA Healthcare, Inc. and its affiliates. The term “affiliates” means direct and indirect subsidiaries of HCA Healthcare, Inc. and partnerships and joint ventures in which such subsidiaries are partners. The terms “facilities” or “hospitals” refer to entities owned and operated by affiliates of HCA, and the term “employees” refers to employees of affiliates of HCA. Our primary…
Risk factors HCA lists in its 10-K
- Our debt agreements contain restrictions that limit our flexibility in operating our business
- Our results of operations may be adversely affected by competition for staffing, the shortage of experienced nurses and other health care professionals and labor union activity
- Our performance depends on our ability to recruit and retain quality physicians
- We may be unable to attract, hire and retain a highly qualified workforce, including key management
- Our operations could be impaired by a failure in or breach of our information systems or those of third parties on whose systems our business relies
- Health care technology initiatives, particularly those related to sharing patient data and interoperability and AI, involve risks that may adversely affect our operations
- The emergence and effects related to a potential future pandemic, epidemic or outbreak of an infectious disease could adversely affect our business and operations
- Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo
- Changes in government health care programs may adversely affect our revenues and business
- If we fail to comply with extensive laws and government regulations, we could suffer penalties or be required to make significant changes to our operations
- State efforts to regulate the construction or expansion of health care facilities could impair our ability to operate and expand our operations
- We may incur additional tax liabilities
- We have been and could become the subject of government investigations, claims and litigation, as well as governmental and commercial payer audits
- We may be subject to liabilities from claims brought against our facilities, which are costly to defend and may require us to pay significant damages if not covered by insurance
- Our hospitals and other facilities face competition for patients from other hospitals and health care providers
- Any increase in the volume of uninsured patients or deterioration in the collectability of uninsured and patient due accounts could adversely affect our results of operations
- Changes to physician utilization practices and treatment methodologies and other factors outside our control that impact demand for medical services may reduce our revenues
- Third-party payer controls designed to reduce costs and other payer practices intended to decrease inpatient services, surgical procedure volumes or reimbursement for services rendered may reduce our revenues
- Our facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas, which makes us sensitive to regulatory, economic, public health, environmental and competitive conditions and changes in those states
- Our business and operations are subject to risks related to hurricanes, extreme weather events or other natural disasters
- The industry trend toward value-based purchasing may negatively impact our revenues
- Our overall business results may suffer during periods of significant inflation, general economic weakness or recessions or as a result of changing governmental policies
- We are exposed to market risk related to changes in the market values of securities and interest rates
- There can be no assurance that we will continue to pay dividends
- Certain of our investors may continue to have influence over us