Incyte (INCY)
Health Care · $24.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0000879169
ahead of 50% of the S&P 500 · #31 of 59 in Health Care
Next reports on Feb 8, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.03 in earnings per share.
52-week range $89.25 to $132.60. 9% below its 52-week high and 35% above its low.
The case for INCY
- Revenue up 24.9% on the year.
- Has compounded revenue at 14.0% a year over five years.
- Carries essentially no debt.
- Gross margin of 93% absorbs cost shocks.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.77).
- Current assets cover the near-term bills 3.8 times over.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 60.5× earnings, where 18% a year of growth would justify about 34×.
- Earnings per share down 68.2%.
- Return on equity of only 7%.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Health Care companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 39 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 60 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 48 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 63 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 82 |
- Capital spending is missing from its filings, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow stands in for the cash test, against a stricter bar.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 59 Health Care companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +24.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +14.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.1B (+21%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Can't tell: no capital spending in its filings
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $1.4B |
|---|---|
| Of profit, before capital spending | 110% |
Its filings do not give capital spending, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow, which is before that spending, is shown instead, and the score judges it against a stricter bar.
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 93% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 10% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 0.8% → 25.0% → 6.7% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, little debt
| Cash | $3.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
| Debt / equity | 0.01× |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 60.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 34× |
| P/FCF | n/a |
| Forward P/E | 15.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 32.4× |
At 60.5× earnings it trades well above the 34× that 18% a year of growth would justify.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Incyte's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $5.1B | $4.2B | $3.7B | $3.4B | $3.0B |
| Change on the year | +21% | +15% | +9% | +14% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | $892M | $568M |
| Of revenue | — | — | — | 26% | 19% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 29.5% | 1.4% | 16.8% | 17.1% | 19.6% |
| Net margin | 25.0% | 0.8% | 16.2% | 10.0% | 31.8% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $3.1B | $1.7B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $2.1B |
What Incyte says it does
Overview Incyte is a global biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of proprietary therapeutics. Our global headquarters is located in Wilmington, Delaware, where we conduct discovery, clinical development and commercial operations. We also conduct clinical development and commercial operations from our European headquarters in Morges, Switzerland, and our other offices across Europe, as well as our Japanese headquarters in Tokyo and our Canadian headquarters in Montreal. We are focused in three therapeutic areas that are defined by the indications of our approved medicines and the diseases for which our clinical candidates are being developed. These therapeutic areas are: Hematology, Oncology, and Inflammation and Autoimmunity (“IAI”). Hematology Our hematology franchise includes four approved products, JAKAFI (ruxolitinib), ICLUSIG (ponatinib), MONJUVI (tafasitamab-cxix)/MINJUVI…
Risk factors INCY lists in its 10-K
- If we are unable to establish and maintain effective sales, marketing and distribution capabilities, or to enter into agreements with third parties to do so, we will not be able to successfully commercialize our products
- If we fail to comply with applicable laws and regulations, we could lose our approval to market our products or be subject to other governmental enforcement activity
- If we market our products in a manner that violates various laws and regulations, we may be subject to civil or criminal penalties
- Competition for our products could harm our business and result in a decrease in our revenue
- We may be unsuccessful in our efforts to discover and develop drug candidates and commercialize drug products
- Changes in government pricing policies, including the enactment of “most favored nation” pricing legislation, could adversely affect our business
- If we fail to enter into additional licensing agreements or if these arrangements are unsuccessful, our business and operations might be adversely affected
- Public health epidemics and pandemics, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have adversely affected and could in the future adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- Even if a drug candidate that we develop receives regulatory approval, we may decide not to commercialize it if we determine that commercialization of that product would require more money and time than we are willing to invest
- We have limited capacity to conduct preclinical testing and clinical trials, and our resulting dependence on other parties could result in delays in and additional costs for our drug development efforts
- If we fail to comply with the extensive legal and regulatory requirements affecting the healthcare industry, we could face increased costs, penalties and a loss of business
- The illegal distribution and sale by third parties of counterfeit or unfit versions of our or our collaborators’ products or stolen products could harm our business and reputation
- As most of our drug discovery and development operations are conducted at our headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, the loss of access to this facility would negatively impact our business
- If we fail to manage our growth effectively, our ability to develop and commercialize products could suffer
- We may acquire businesses or assets, form joint ventures or make investments in other companies that may be unsuccessful, divert our management’s attention and harm our operating results and prospects
- Risks associated with our operations outside of the United States could adversely affect our business
- If product liability lawsuits are brought against us, we could face substantial liabilities and may be required to limit commercialization of our products and our results of operations could be harmed
- Because our activities involve the use of hazardous materials, we may be subject to claims relating to improper handling, storage or disposal of these materials that could be time consuming and costly
- Business disruptions and uncertainties could seriously harm our operations, future revenues and financial condition and increase our costs and expenses
- Our marketable securities and equity investments are subject to risks that could adversely affect our overall financial position
- If we are subject to arbitration, litigation and infringement claims, they could be costly and disrupt our drug discovery and development efforts
- If the effective term of our patents is decreased due to changes in U.S. patent laws or if we need to refile some of our patent applications, the value of our patent portfolio and the revenues we derive from it may be decreased
- International patent protection is particularly uncertain and costly, and our involvement in opposition proceedings in foreign countries may result in the expenditure of substantial sums and management resources
- Significant disruptions of information technology systems, breaches of data security, or unauthorized disclosures of personal information (including sensitive personal information) could adversely affect our business,
- subject us to liability or reputational damage
- Increasing use of social media and new technology, including artificial intelligence, could give rise to liability, breaches of data security, or reputational damage