KeyCorp (KEY)
Financials · $22.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0000091576
ahead of 47% of the S&P 500 · #47 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Jan 20, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.51 in earnings per share.
52-week range $16.91 to $24.07. 11% below its 52-week high and 26% above its low.
The case for KEY
- Cheap for its growth: 10.5× earnings, where 4% a year of growth plus a 6.8% dividend would justify about 24×.
- Earnings per share up 107.1%.
- Pays a 6.8% dividend while you wait.
- Trades at 1.19× book value, close to what the balance sheet says it owns.
The case against
- Weakest against its peers: return on equity of 11% is lower than 74% of Financials companies.
- Its weakest area is growth (44/100): EPS +107.1%, +4.3% a year over five years.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 70 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 44 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 49 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 57 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 57 |
- Its one-year revenue change (+57%) is far out of line with its five-year trend (+4% a year). In the Financials sector that is usually interest income swinging with rates rather than growth, so only the five-year figure is used.
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +57.1%* |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.3% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.5B (+63%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | n/a |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 23% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 | −3.5% → 24.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $1.3B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $9.9B |
| Net debt | $8.6B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 10.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 24× |
| Price / book | 1.19× |
| Fair P/B for its ROE | 1.1× |
| Forward P/E | 9.9× |
At 10.5× earnings it trades well below the 24× that 4% a year of growth plus a 6.8% dividend would justify. At 1.19× book it trades close to the 1.1× that its 11% return on equity would justify; for a financial company that counts for more than earnings.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from KeyCorp's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $7.5B | $4.6B | $6.4B | $7.3B | $7.3B |
| Change on the year | +63% | −28% | −12% | 0% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $2.1B | $599M | $2.8B | $4.4B | $1.1B |
| Of revenue | 28% | 13% | 43% | 60% | 15% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 24.3% | −3.5% | 15.1% | 26.4% | 36.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.3B | $1.7B | $941M | $887M | $913M |
| Long-term debt | $9.9B | $12.1B | $19.6B | $19.3B | $12.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$8.6B | −$10.4B | −$18.6B | −$18.4B | −$11.1B |
What KeyCorp says it does
Overview KeyCorp, organized in 1958 under the laws of the State of Ohio, is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. We are a BHC under the BHCA and one of the nation’s largest bank-based financial services companies, with consolidated total assets of approximately $184.4 billion at December 31, 2025. KeyCorp is the parent holding company for KeyBank National Association, its principal subsidiary, through which most of our banking services are provided. Through KeyBank and certain other subsidiaries, we provide a wide range of retail and commercial banking, commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance, student loan refinancing, commercial mortgage servicing and special servicing, and investment banking products and services to individual, corporate, and institutional clients through two major business segments: Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. As of December 31, 2025, these services were provided across the country through…
Risk factors KEY lists in its 10-K
- I. Credit Risk We have concentrated credit exposure in commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases
- Should the fundamentals of the commercial real estate market deteriorate, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected
- We are subject to the risk of defaults by our loan clients and counterparties
- Declining asset prices could adversely affect us
- Various factors may cause our allowance for loan and lease losses to increase or to be inadequate
- Geopolitical destabilization could adversely impact our loan portfolios
- II. Market Risk A worsening of the U.S. economy and volatile or recessionary conditions in the U.S. or abroad could negatively affect our business or our access to capital markets
- We are subject to interest rate risk, which could adversely affect net interest income
- Our profitability depends upon economic conditions in the geographic regions where we have significant operations and in certain market segments in which we conduct significant business
- The soundness of other financial institutions could adversely affect us
- III. Liquidity Risk We are subject to liquidity risk, which could negatively affect our funding levels
- Capital and liquidity requirements imposed by banking regulators and the credit rating agencies may require banks and BHCs to maintain more and higher quality capital and more and higher quality liquid assets
- Federal agencies’ actions to ensure stability of the U.S. economy and financial system may have costly or disruptive effects on us
- We rely on dividends by our subsidiaries for most of our funds
- Our credit ratings affect our liquidity position
- A loss of customer deposits or an adverse change in deposit mix could increase our funding costs and/or impair our liquidity
- IV. Operational Risk We are subject to a variety of operational risks
- We and third parties on which we rely (including their downstream service providers) may experience a cyberattack, technology failure, information system or security breach or interruption
- We rely on third parties to perform significant operational services for us, and their failure to perform to our standards or other issues of concern with them could harm us
- Our framework for managing risks and mitigating losses may not be effective
- We are, and may in the future be, subject to claims, litigation, arbitration, investigations, and governmental proceedings, which could result in significant financial liability and/or reputational harm
- Our controls and procedures may fail or be circumvented, and our methods of reducing risk exposure may not be effective
- Our operations and financial performance could be adversely affected by severe weather and natural disasters, both directly and as a result of impacts on our customers
- Our development and use of AI, including through third parties, exposes us to inherent risks that may adversely impact KeyCorp
- V. Compliance Risk We are subject to extensive government regulation, supervision, and tax legislation
- VI. Strategic Risk We may not realize the expected benefits of our strategic initiatives
- We operate in a highly competitive industry
- Maintaining or increasing our market share depends upon our ability to adapt our products and services to evolving industry standards and consumer preferences, while maintaining competitive products and services
- We may not be able to attract and retain skilled people
- Acquisitions or strategic partnerships may disrupt our business and dilute shareholder value
- Scotiabank holds a significant equity interest in our business and may exercise influence over us, including through its ability to designate up to two directors to our Board of Directors
- Damage to our reputation could significantly impact our business and major stakeholders
- Differing views on corporate responsibility and sustainability could adversely affect our reputation and our business and results of operations
- VII. Model Risk We rely on quantitative models to manage certain accounting, risk management, capital planning, and treasury functions
- Changes in accounting policies, standards, and interpretations could materially affect how we report our financial condition and results of operations
- Impairment of goodwill could require charges to earnings, which could result in a negative impact on our results of operations