MSCI (MSCI)
Financials · $46.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0001408198
ahead of 81% of the S&P 500 · #18 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Jan 26, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $5.17 in earnings per share.
52-week range $501.08 to $681.04. 4% below its 52-week high and 31% above its low.
The case for MSCI
- 40% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Revenue growing 12.3% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 13.1% a year over five years.
- Gross margin of 83% absorbs cost shocks.
- Pays a modest 1.0% dividend.
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 33.4× earnings, where 10%+ a year of growth plus a 1.0% dividend would justify about 25×.
- Priced at 13.5× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
- Owes more than it owns: shareholder equity is −$2.7B, usually the result of buybacks funded with debt. ROE and price-to-book mean little here.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 36 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 75 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 88 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 75 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 40 |
- Shareholder equity is negative, so return on equity, price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +12.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +13.1% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.1B (+10%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 83% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 56% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 38.8% → 38.4% → 40.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $515M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $6.2B |
| Net debt | $5.7B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 33.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 25× |
| Forward P/E | 28.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 25.0× |
At 33.4× earnings it trades above the 25× that 10%+ a year of growth plus a 1.0% dividend would justify. It is judged on earnings alone: its book value is not what it earns on, as it would be for a bank or insurer.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from MSCI's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $3.1B | $2.9B | $2.5B | $2.2B | $2.0B |
| Change on the year | +10% | +13% | +12% | +10% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $923M |
| Of revenue | 49% | 51% | 48% | 48% | 45% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 54.7% | 53.5% | 54.8% | 53.7% | 52.5% |
| Net margin | 38.4% | 38.8% | 45.4% | 38.7% | 35.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $515M | $409M | $462M | $994M | $1.4B |
| Long-term debt | $6.2B | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$5.7B | −$4.1B | −$4.0B | −$3.5B | −$2.7B |
What MSCI says it does
Overview Our research-based data, analytics and indexes, supported by advanced technology, set standards for global investors and help our clients understand risks and opportunities, make better investment decisions and unlock innovation. Investors all over the world use our tools and solutions to gain insights and improve transparency throughout their investment processes. Our offerings help them define their investment universe; make asset allocation decisions; construct and analyze portfolios and investment strategies; identify, measure and manage drivers of investment risk and performance; integrate sustainability and climate considerations into portfolio construction and risk management; design and manage indexed financial products such as exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”); and prepare regulatory and client reports. Our products and services include indexes; portfolio construction and risk management analytical models and tools;…
Risk factors MSCI lists in its 10-K
- MSCI is exposed to potential reputational and credibility concerns, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Cancellations or reductions by our clients could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Our clients may become more self-sufficient, which may reduce demand for our products or services and materially adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Complex relationships with clients, competitors, investors and distributors could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Any failure to ensure and protect the confidentiality of data could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Cyber-attacks or other security incidents and the failure of security plans, systems and procedures could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
- investment trends. Such changes could decrease the use of our products and services which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Competition and financial and budgetary pressures affecting clients may cause price reductions or loss of market share, which may materially adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Failure to comply with laws, rules or regulations, or the introduction of new or revised laws, rules or regulations could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Our revenues, expenses, assets and liabilities are subject to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuation risk, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
- Our indebtedness could materially adversely affect our cash flows and financial flexibility, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations
- A change in our credit ratings could materially adversely affect our financial condition
- If we are unable to successfully identify, execute and realize expected returns or synergies from acquisitions or strategic partnerships or investments, our financial results may be materially adversely affected
- If we fail to attract, develop or retain the necessary talent, including through our compensation programs, our business, financial condition or results of operations could be materially adversely affected
- We cannot provide any guarantee that we will continue to repurchase shares of our common stock pursuant to our share repurchase program