Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Financials · $134B market cap · SEC CIK 0000080661

Next reports on Mar 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $4.09 in earnings per share.

52-week range $189.20 to $241.02. 4% below its 52-week high and 22% above its low.

The case for PGR

• Cheap for its growth: 11.6× earnings, where 10%+ a year of growth would justify about 23×.
• Earns 35% back on shareholder equity.
• Has compounded revenue at 15.5% a year over five years.
• Moves less than the market (beta 0.19).

The case against

• Weakest against its peers: net margin of 13% is thinner than 76% of Financials companies.
• Its weakest area is profitability (56/100): return on equity 35%, net margin 12.7%.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
• Its dividend figures disagree with each other (a 0.2% yield against about 6.1% implied by its payout ratio and P/E), so the dividend is not counted.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Progressive Corporation's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Progressive Corporation says it does

Development of Business The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates (references in this Item to subsidiaries include affiliates as well). Our insurance subsidiaries write personal and commercial auto insurance, personal residential property insurance, and insurance for motorcycles, watercraft, and other recreational vehicles. We also offer business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominantly for small businesses, workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and provide related services. Our non-insurance subsidiaries generally support our insurance and investment operations. We operate throughout the United States. Unless noted, references to “state(s)” throughout this report include the District of Columbia. The Progressive Corporation, together with its…

Risk factors PGR lists in its 10-K

• Our success depends on our ability to underwrite and price risks accurately and to charge adequate rates to policyholders
• Our success depends on our ability to establish accurate loss reserves
• Our insurance operating results have been and likely will continue to be materially adversely affected by severe weather and other catastrophe events, and climate change may be exacerbating these events and their impacts
• Our business depends on the secure and uninterrupted operation of our systems, facilities, and business functions and the operation of various third-party systems
• Our business could be materially adversely affected by a security breach or other attack involving our technology systems or the systems of one or more of our vendors
• We must maintain a brand and reputation that is recognized and trusted by consumers
• Our success depends on our ability to innovate effectively and respond to our competitors’ initiatives
• We must effectively manage complexity as we develop and deliver high-quality products and customer experiences
• We compete in property and casualty insurance markets that are highly competitive
• Our success depends on our ability to adjust claims accurately
• We are subject to a variety of complex laws and regulations
• Misconduct or fraudulent acts by employees, agents, and third parties may expose us to financial loss, disruption of business, and/or regulatory assessments
• Our ability to attract, develop, and retain talent, including employees, managers, and executives, and to maintain appropriate staffing levels, is critical to our success
• Lawsuits challenging our business practices, and those of our competitors and other companies, are pending and more may be filed in the future
• Our long-term business strategy and efforts to acquire or develop new products or enter new areas of business may not be successful and may create enhanced risks
• Intellectual property rights could affect our competitiveness and our business operations
• Our development and use of new technology, such as generative and agentic artificial intelligence, may present additional risks, may not be successful, and could have a material adverse effect on our business
• The performance of our fixed-income and equity investment portfolios is subject to a variety of investment risks
• Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – IV. Results of Operations – Investments
• New regulations and societal pressures relating to Sustainability and other public policy matters could negatively impact our returns or cause us to change our investing strategies in ways that could negatively impact our results
• The inability to access our cash accounts or to convert investments into cash on favorable terms when we desire to do so may materially and adversely affect our business, cash flows, and capital position
• If we are unable to obtain capital when necessary to support our business, our financial condition and our ability to grow could be materially adversely affected
• Our dividend policy likely will result in varying amounts being paid to our common shareholders, or no payment in some periods, and the dividend policy ultimately may be changed in the discretion of the Board of Directors
• Our investments in certain tax-advantaged projects may not generate the anticipated tax benefits and related returns
• Our goal is to maximize the long-term value of the enterprise and we do not manage to short-term earnings expectations, which may adversely affect short-term results
• Our business and results of operations could be adversely affected by epidemics, pandemics, or other widespread health risks

Filings

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