Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Financials · $120B market cap · SEC CIK 0000080661
fundamentals score out of 100
Next reports on Nov 2, 2026, before the open, with analysts expecting $4.19 in earnings per share.
The case for PGR
- Cheap on earnings at 10.3×, well under the market's usual 20×.
- Earns 35% back on shareholder equity.
- Revenue growing 10.5% year over year.
- A PEG of 0.84: a P/E of 10.3× is low for EPS growing 12%.
- Has compounded revenue at 15.5% a year over five years.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.22).
The case against
- The price trend is weak (40/100): -12.4% over a year, +3.6% over three months, 30% of the way up its 52-week range.
- Weakest against its peers: net margin of 13% is thinner than 78% of Financials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings, sales, assets and cash | 70 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 69 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 56 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 40 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 76 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 74 Financials companies.
Key numbers
| Price / earnings | 10.3× |
|---|---|
| Price / book | 3.70× |
| Price / sales | 1.3× |
| Revenue growth (YoY) | +10.5% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | +12.3% |
| Gross margin | — |
| Operating margin | 17% |
| Net margin | 13% |
| Return on equity | 35% |
| Debt / equity | 0.24× |
| Current ratio | 0.08 |
| Dividend yield | 0.24% |
| Beta | 0.22 |
| 52-week range | $189.20 – $248.17 |
| Position in that range | 30% of the way up |
| 3-month return | +3.6% |
| 1-year return | -12.4% |
Five years of financials, as filed
Pulled from Progressive Corporation's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are derived from the rows above.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $87.7B | $75.4B | $62.1B | $49.6B | $47.7B |
| Net income | $11.3B | $8.5B | $3.9B | $722M | $3.4B |
| Operating cash flow | $17.5B | $15.1B | $10.6B | $6.8B | $7.8B |
| Capital expenditure | $348M | $285M | $252M | $292M | $244M |
| Total assets | $123B | $106B | $88.7B | $75.5B | $71.1B |
| Total liabilities | $92.7B | $80.2B | $68.4B | $59.6B | $52.9B |
| Shareholder equity | $30.3B | $25.6B | $20.3B | $15.9B | $18.2B |
| Cash | $138M | $154M | $100M | $221M | $202M |
| Free cash flow | $17.2B | $14.8B | $10.4B | $6.6B | $7.5B |
| Net margin | 12.9% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 7.0% |
| Diluted shares | 588M | 588M | 588M | 587M | 587M |
Share count is essentially flat over 4 years.
What Progressive Corporation says it does
Development of Business The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates (references in this Item to subsidiaries include affiliates as well). Our insurance subsidiaries write personal and commercial auto insurance, personal residential property insurance, and insurance for motorcycles, watercraft, and other recreational vehicles. We also offer business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominantly for small businesses, workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and provide related services. Our non-insurance subsidiaries generally support our insurance and investment operations. We operate throughout the United States. Unless noted, references to "state(s)" throughout this report include the District of Columbia. The Progressive Corporation, together with its…
Risk factors PGR lists in its 10-K
- Our success depends on our ability to underwrite and price risks accurately and to charge adequate rates to policyholders
- Our success depends on our ability to establish accurate loss reserves
- Our insurance operating results have been and likely will continue to be materially adversely affected by severe weather and other catastrophe events, and climate change may be exacerbating these events and their impacts
- Our business depends on the secure and uninterrupted operation of our systems, facilities, and business functions and the operation of various third-party systems
- Our business could be materially adversely affected by a security breach or other attack involving our technology systems or the systems of one or more of our vendors
- We must maintain a brand and reputation that is recognized and trusted by consumers
- Our success depends on our ability to innovate effectively and respond to our competitors’ initiatives
- We must effectively manage complexity as we develop and deliver high-quality products and customer experiences
- We compete in property and casualty insurance markets that are highly competitive
- Our success depends on our ability to adjust claims accurately
- We are subject to a variety of complex laws and regulations
- Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – II. Financial Condition
- Misconduct or fraudulent acts by employees, agents, and third parties may expose us to financial loss, disruption of business, and/or regulatory assessments
- Our ability to attract, develop, and retain talent, including employees, managers, and executives, and to maintain appropriate staffing levels, is critical to our success