PayPal (PYPL)
Financials · $48.7B market cap · SEC CIK 0001633917
ahead of 32% of the S&P 500 · #58 of 76 in Financials
Next reports on Feb 2, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.46 in earnings per share.
52-week range $38.46 to $67.99. 14% below its 52-week high and 53% above its low.
The case for PYPL
- Cheap for its growth: 10.3× earnings, where 7% a year of growth plus a 1.0% dividend would justify about 21×.
- Return on equity of 24%.
- Pays a modest 1.0% dividend.
- Price/sales of 1.4× is lower than 85% of Financials companies.
The case against
- Growth is weak (40/100): revenue +4.4%, EPS +5.4%, +9.1% a year over five years.
- Stability is weak (30/100): beta 1.31, a 43% swing over the year.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 21 points over the past year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Financials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 73 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 40 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 49 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 52 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 30 |
- Its debt and cash flow are not scored, as for every company in the Financials sector: for banks, insurers and brokers, borrowing is the business.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 76 Financials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +4.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +9.1% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $33.2B (+4%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Not meaningful for a financial company
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 41% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 17% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 13.0% → 15.8% → 13.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Not judged for a financial company
| Cash | $8.0B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $10.0B |
| Net debt | $1.9B |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 10.3× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 21× |
| Price / book | 2.31× |
| Fair P/B for its ROE | 2.4× |
| Forward P/E | 9.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.1× |
At 10.3× earnings it trades well below the 21× that 7% a year of growth plus a 1.0% dividend would justify. At 2.31× book it trades close to the 2.4× that its 24% return on equity would justify; for a financial company that counts for more than earnings.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from PayPal's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $33.2B | $31.8B | $29.8B | $27.5B | $25.4B |
| Change on the year | +4% | +7% | +8% | +8% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $5.6B | $6.8B | $4.2B | $5.1B | $4.9B |
| Of revenue | 17% | 21% | 14% | 19% | 19% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 18.3% | 16.7% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 16.8% |
| Net margin | 15.8% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 16.4% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $8.0B | $6.7B | $9.1B | $7.8B | $5.2B |
| Long-term debt | $10.0B | $9.9B | $9.7B | $10.4B | $8.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$1.9B | −$3.2B | −$595M | −$2.6B | −$2.9B |
What PayPal says it does
OVERVIEW At PayPal Holdings, Inc., our mission is to revolutionize commerce globally. Our products are designed to enable digital payments and simplify commerce experiences for consumers and merchants to make selling, shopping, and sending and receiving money simple, personalized, and secure, whether online or in-person. We operate a global, two-sided network at scale that connects consumers and merchants with 439 million active accounts across approximately 200 markets as of December 31, 2025. • Consumers: We provide consumers with digital wallets and other solutions that allow them to shop and pay with PayPal and Venmo — both online and in-person — manage their finances (including saving and buying and selling cryptocurrencies), and send and receive money between friends and family. When shopping, we offer consumers flexibility in how they pay, which may include a bank account, a PayPal or Venmo account balance, PayPal-branded…
Risk factors PYPL lists in its 10-K
- If any of the following risks actually occur, our business, financial condition, results of operations, future prospects, and the trading price of our common stock could be materially and adversely affected
- Cyberattacks and security vulnerabilities could result in serious harm to our reputation, business, and financial condition
- Business interruptions or systems failures may impair the availability of our websites, applications, products or services, or otherwise harm our business
- If we cannot keep pace with rapid technological developments to provide new and innovative products and services, the use of our products and services and, consequently, our revenues, could decline
- Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing; Economic and Trade Sanctions
- Privacy and Protection of Customer Data
- We are subject to regulatory scrutiny and may be subject to legal proceedings under antitrust and competition laws
- We are regularly subject to general litigation, regulatory scrutiny, and government inquiries
- Litigation and Regulatory Matters—General Matters
- Third parties may allege that we are infringing their patents and other intellectual property rights
- We may be unable to protect or enforce our intellectual property
- We face substantial and increasingly intense competition worldwide in the global payments industry
- Changes to payment card networks or bank fees, rules, or practices could harm our business
- Changes in how consumers fund their PayPal transactions could harm our business
- Our credit products expose us to additional risks
- We rely on third parties in many aspects of our business, which creates additional risk
- Any factors that reduce cross-border trade or make such trade more difficult could harm our business
- Use of our payments services for illegal activities or improper purposes could harm our business
- Acquisitions, dispositions, strategic investments, and other strategic transactions could result in operating difficulties and could harm our business
- Our international operations subject us to increased risks, which could harm our business
- Global and regional economic conditions could harm our business
- If our reputation or our brands are damaged, our business and operating results may be harmed
- Real or perceived inaccuracies in our key metrics may harm our reputation and negatively affect our business
- Evolving laws, regulations and stakeholder expectations with respect to environmental, social and governance matters could harm our reputation and adversely affect our business
- If one or more of our counterparty financial institutions default on their financial or performance obligations to us or fail, we may incur significant losses
- If we are unable, or perceived as unable, to effectively manage customer funds, our business could be harmed
- There are risks associated with our indebtedness
- Changes in tax laws, exposure to unanticipated additional tax liabilities, or implementation of reporting or record-keeping obligations could have a material adverse effect on our business
- We may be unable to attract, retain, and develop the highly skilled employees we need to support our business
- We are subject to risks associated with information disseminated through our products and services
- There can be no assurance that we will continue to repurchase stock or declare cash dividends, and stock repurchases or dividends could increase the volatility of our stock price and could diminish our cash reserves