Simon Property Group (SPG)
Real Estate · $75.6B market cap · SEC CIK 0001063761
ahead of 98% of the S&P 500 · #2 of 30 in Real Estate
Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.94 in earnings per share.
52-week range $177.88 to $238.50. 2% below its 52-week high and 32% above its low.
The case for SPG
- Generated $3.2B of free cash flow in FY2025, 50% of revenue.
- Earns 97% on shareholder equity, a figure flattered by a small equity base.
- 63% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Revenue growing 16.2% year over year.
- Earnings per share up 62.1%.
- Pays a 6.3% dividend while you wait.
The case against
- Long-term debt of $28.4B would take 7 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.33).
- Price/sales of 10.6× is higher than 86% of Real Estate companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Real Estate companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 67 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 82 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 90 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 77 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 50 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 30 Real Estate companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +16.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +6.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $6.4B (+7%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $3.2B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 50% |
| Of profit | 60% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 81% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 46% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 45.8% → 84.3% → 63.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $823M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $28.4B |
| Net debt | $27.6B |
| Years to repay | 6.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 16.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 20× |
| Price / operating cash flow | 18.3× |
| Forward P/E | 31.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 20.0× |
At 16.8× earnings it trades below the 20× that 8%+ a year of growth would justify. At 18.3× operating cash flow it trades close to that same mark; for a REIT that counts for more than earnings, since depreciation makes its P/E look worse than the business is.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Simon Property Group's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $6.4B | $6.0B | $5.7B | $5.3B | $5.1B |
| Change on the year | +7% | +5% | +7% | +3% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $3.2B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.1B |
| Of revenue | 50% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 61% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 49.9% | 51.9% | 49.6% | 48.8% | 47.2% |
| Net margin | 84.3% | 45.8% | 46.2% | 46.3% | 50.2% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $823M | $1.4B | $1.2B | $622M | $534M |
| Long-term debt | $28.4B | $24.3B | $26.0B | $25.0B | $25.3B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$27.6B | −$22.9B | −$24.9B | −$24.3B | −$24.8B |
What Simon Property Group says it does
Simon Property Group, Inc. is an Indiana corporation that operates as a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust, or REIT, under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, or the Internal Revenue Code. REITs will generally not be liable for U.S. federal corporate income taxes as long as they distribute not less than 100% of their REIT taxable income. Simon Property Group, L.P. is our majority-owned Indiana partnership subsidiary that owns directly or indirectly all of our real estate properties and other assets. Unless stated otherwise or the context otherwise requires, references to "Simon" mean Simon Property Group, Inc. and references to the "Operating Partnership" mean Simon Property Group, L.P. References to "we," "us" and "our" mean collectively Simon, the Operating Partnership and those entities/subsidiaries owned or controlled by Simon and/or the Operating Partnership. According to the amended and…
Risk factors SPG lists in its 10-K
- Conditions that adversely affect the general retail environment could materially and adversely affect us
- Some of our properties depend on anchor stores or other large nationally recognized tenants to attract shoppers and we could be materially and adversely affected by the loss of one or more of these anchors or tenants
- We face potential adverse effects from tenant bankruptcies
- Vacant space at our properties could materially and adversely affect us
- We may not be able to lease new or redeveloped properties to or renew leases and relet space at existing properties with an appropriate mix of tenants or at desired rents, if at all
- Acts of violence, civil unrest or criminal activity, actual or threatened terrorist attacks and inappropriate and unacceptable behavior by visitors at our properties could adversely affect our business operations
- We face a wide range of competition that could affect our ability to operate profitably, including e-commerce, as well as evolving consumer preferences and purchasing habits
- Some of our properties are subject to potential natural or other disasters
- We face risks associated with climate change
- Some of our potential losses may not be covered by insurance
- As owners of real estate, we can face liabilities for environmental contamination, and our efforts to identify environmental liabilities may not be successful
- We face risks associated with the acquisition, development, redevelopment and expansion of properties
- Real estate investments are relatively illiquid
- If the Operating Partnership fails to qualify as a partnership for federal income tax purposes, Simon will cease to qualify as a REIT and suffer other adverse consequences
- Complying with REIT requirements might cause us to forgo otherwise attractive acquisition opportunities or liquidate otherwise attractive investments
- Our ownership of TRSs is subject to certain restrictions, and we will be required to pay a 100% penalty tax on certain income or deductions if our transactions with our TRSs are not conducted on arm’s-length terms
- Dividends payable by REITs generally do not qualify for the reduced tax rates available for some dividends, which may negatively affect the value of our shares
- The tax imposed on REITs engaging in “prohibited transactions” may limit our ability to engage in transactions which would be treated as sales for U.S. federal income tax purposes
- REIT distribution requirements could adversely affect our liquidity and our ability to execute our business plan
- Partnership tax audit rules could have a material adverse effect on us
- Legislative, administrative, regulatory or other actions affecting REITs, including positions taken by the IRS, could have a material adverse effect on us and our investors
- Provisions in Simon’s charter and by-laws and in the Operating Partnership’s partnership agreement could prevent a change of control
- We have a substantial debt burden that could affect our future operations
- The agreements that govern our indebtedness contain various covenants that impose restrictions on us that might affect our ability to operate freely
- Disruption in the capital and credit markets may increase the cost of capital and may adversely affect our ability to access external financings for our growth and ongoing debt service requirements
- Adverse changes in our credit ratings could affect our borrowing capacity and borrowing terms
- We have limited control with respect to some properties that are partially owned or managed by third parties, which may adversely affect our ability to sell or refinance them
- The Operating Partnership guarantees debt or otherwise provides support for a number of joint venture properties
- Our success depends, in part, on our ability to attract, motivate, retain and develop talented employees, and our failure to do so, including the loss of any one of our key personnel, could adversely impact our business
- Our international activities may subject us to risks that are different from or greater than those associated with our domestic operations