Ventas (VTR)
Real Estate · $46.8B market cap · SEC CIK 0000740260
ahead of 6% of the S&P 500 · #29 of 30 in Real Estate
Next reports on Feb 3, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.17 in earnings per share.
52-week range $73.82 to $101.60. 11% below its 52-week high and 22% above its low.
The case for VTR
- Revenue up 22.1% on the year.
- Pays a 4.0% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.76).
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 178.7× earnings, where 6% a year of growth would justify about 16×.
- Burned $1.3B of free cash in FY2025.
- Long-term debt of $13.0B would take 8 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 1.4 times.
- Return on equity of only 2%.
- Growth is weak (38/100): revenue +22.1%, EPS −0.1%, +9.0% a year over five years.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Real Estate companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 23 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 38 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 17 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 57 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 41 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 30 Real Estate companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +22.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +9.0% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.8B (+18%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$1.3B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −22% |
| Of profit | −490% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 40% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 13% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 1.8% → 4.5% → 3.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $741M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $13.0B |
| Net debt | $12.3B |
| Years to repay | 7.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 178.7× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 16× |
| Price / operating cash flow | 28.4× |
| Forward P/E | 95.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 25.1× |
At 178.7× earnings it trades well above the 16× that 6% a year of growth would justify. At 28.4× operating cash flow it trades well above that same mark; for a REIT that counts for more than earnings, since depreciation makes its P/E look worse than the business is.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Ventas's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $5.8B | $4.9B | $4.5B | $4.1B | $3.8B |
| Change on the year | +18% | +9% | +9% | +8% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$1.3B | −$1.2B | $470M | $219M | −$776M |
| Of revenue | −22% | −24% | 10% | 5% | −20% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 4.5% | 1.8% | −0.7% | −1.0% | 1.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $741M | $898M | $509M | $123M | $150M |
| Long-term debt | $13.0B | $13.5B | $13.5B | $12.3B | $12.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$12.3B | −$12.6B | −$13.0B | −$12.2B | −$11.9B |
What Ventas says it does
BUSINESS Overview Ventas, Inc. is an S&P 500 company focused on delivering strong, sustainable shareholder returns by enabling exceptional environments that benefit a large and growing aging population. We hold a portfolio that includes senior housing communities, outpatient medical buildings, research centers, hospitals and healthcare facilities located in North America and the United Kingdom. As of December 31, 2025, we owned or had investments in 1,409 properties consisting of 1,374 properties in our reportable segments (“Segment Properties”) and 35 properties held by unconsolidated real estate entities in our non-segment operations. We are headquartered in Chicago, Illinois with additional corporate offices in Louisville, Kentucky and New York, New York. We elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (“REIT”) under Sections 856 through 860 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”), commencing with our…
Risk factors VTR lists in its 10-K
- Macroeconomic trends, including trends relating to labor costs, unemployment, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates, may affect our business and financial results
- To the extent that we or our managers, tenants and borrowers are unable to navigate successfully the trends affecting our or their businesses and the industries in which we or they operate, we may be adversely affected.”
- We may face increased risks and costs associated with volatility in materials and labor prices or as a result of supply chain or procurement disruptions, which may adversely affect the status of our construction projects
- If our managers’, tenants’ or borrowers’ financial condition or business prospects deteriorate, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected
- Changes in the U.S. political and regulatory environment could affect availability of government funding that we or our managers, tenants or borrowers rely on, which could negatively impact our business
- Our managers and tenants operate or exert substantial control over the properties that they manage or lease from us, which limits our control and influence over operations and results
- We face potential adverse consequences from the bankruptcy or insolvency of our managers, tenants, borrowers and other obligors
- A significant portion of our revenues and operating income is dependent on a limited number of tenants and managers, including Ardent, Kindred, Atria, Sunrise and Le Groupe Maurice
- We are vulnerable to adverse changes affecting our specific asset classes and the real estate industry generally
- Ownership of properties or operation of our business outside the United States may subject us to different or greater risks than those associated with our domestic operations
- We and our managers, tenants and borrowers may be adversely affected by regulation and enforcement
- The hospitals on or near the campuses where our outpatient medical buildings are located and their affiliated health systems may not remain competitive or financially viable
- Our research tenants face unique levels of expense and uncertainty
- If a borrower defaults, we may be unable to obtain payment, successfully foreclose on collateral or realize the value of any collateral, which could adversely affect our ability to recover our investment
- Our ongoing strategy depends, in part, upon identifying and consummating future acquisitions and investments and effectively managing our external growth opportunities
- Our investments and acquisitions may be unsuccessful or fail to meet our expectations
- Our investments may expose us to unknown liabilities
- Our investments in co-investment vehicles, joint ventures and minority interests may subject us to risks that we would not otherwise face
- Increased construction and development in the markets in which our properties are located could adversely affect our future occupancy rates, operating margins and profitability
- Development, redevelopment and construction risks could affect our profitability
- Damage from catastrophic or extreme weather or other natural events could result in losses to the Company
- The amount and scope of insurance coverage provided by our policies and policies maintained by our managers, tenants or other counterparties may not adequately insure against losses
- We may be unable to sell certain properties on a timely basis or on favorable terms, which may have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations
- We may be required to recognize reserves, allowances, credit losses or impairment charges
- Our success depends, in part, on our ability to attract and retain talented employees. The loss of any one of our key personnel or the inability to maintain appropriate staffing could adversely impact our business
- Damage to our reputation could adversely affect our business, financial condition or result of operations
- We may be adversely affected by fluctuations in currency exchange rates
- We have a significant amount of outstanding indebtedness and may incur additional indebtedness in the future
- Adverse changes in our credit ratings could impair our ability to obtain additional debt and equity financing on favorable terms
- Covenants in the instruments governing our and our subsidiaries’ existing indebtedness limit our operational flexibility, and a covenant breach could adversely affect our operations
- The market price and trading volume of our common stock may be volatile
- Our stockholders may experience dilution if we issue additional common stock
- Our investments may expose us to unknown liabilities
- We could incur substantial liabilities and costs if any of our properties are found to be contaminated with hazardous substances or we become involved in any environmental disputes
- Loss of our status as a REIT would have significant adverse consequences for us and the value of our common stock
- The 90% distribution requirement will decrease our liquidity and may limit our ability to engage in otherwise beneficial transactions
- To preserve our qualification as a REIT, our certificate of incorporation contains ownership limits with respect to our capital stock that may delay, defer or prevent a change of control of our company
- Our use of taxable REIT subsidiaries is limited under the Code
- Complying with REIT requirements may cause us to forego otherwise attractive opportunities (including investing in our tenants) or liquidate otherwise attractive investments
- The lease of qualified healthcare properties to a TRS is subject to special requirements
- The tax imposed on REITs engaging in “prohibited transactions” may limit our ability to engage in transactions which would be treated as sales for federal income tax purposes
- Ventas may incur adverse tax consequences if any of Ventas’s subsidiary REITs fail to qualify as a REIT for U.S. federal income tax purposes
- Legislative or other actions affecting REITs or taxes could have a negative effect on our stockholders or us