Prologis (PLD)
Real Estate · $127B market cap · SEC CIK 0001045609
ahead of 62% of the S&P 500 · #11 of 30 in Real Estate
Next reports on Jan 19, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.72 in earnings per share.
52-week range $121.40 to $153.35. 15% below its 52-week high and 7% above its low.
The case for PLD
- 46% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Earnings per share up 32.1%.
- Pays a 3.1% dividend while you wait.
- Has compounded revenue at 14.6% a year over five years.
- Gross margin of 74% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 29.7× earnings, where 8%+ a year of growth would justify about 20×.
- Priced at 13.5× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
- Long-term debt of $35.0B would take 7 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Return on equity of only 8%.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.34).
- The price trend is weak (39/100): +3.9% over a year, −5.9% over three months, 15% below its 52-week high.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Real Estate companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 46 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 74 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 77 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 39 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 56 |
- Capital spending is missing from its filings, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow stands in for the cash test, against a stricter bar.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 30 Real Estate companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +7.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +14.6% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $8.8B (+7%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Can't tell: no capital spending in its filings
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $5.0B |
|---|---|
| Of profit, before capital spending | 150% |
Its filings do not give capital spending, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow, which is before that spending, is shown instead, and the score judges it against a stricter bar.
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 74% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 38% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 45.5% → 37.9% → 45.5% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $35.0B |
| Net debt | $33.9B |
| Years to repay | 7.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 29.7× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 20× |
| Price / operating cash flow | 25.3× |
| Forward P/E | 33.7× |
| EV / EBITDA | 25.3× |
At 29.7× earnings it trades above the 20× that 8%+ a year of growth would justify. At 25.3× operating cash flow it trades above that same mark; for a REIT that counts for more than earnings, since depreciation makes its P/E look worse than the business is.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Prologis's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $8.8B | $8.2B | $8.0B | $6.0B | $4.8B |
| Change on the year | +7% | +2% | +34% | +26% | — |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 49.6% | 53.8% | 46.2% | 58.0% | 67.4% |
| Net margin | 37.9% | 45.5% | 38.1% | 56.3% | 61.8% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.1B | $1.3B | $530M | $278M | $556M |
| Long-term debt | $35.0B | $30.9B | $29.0B | $23.9B | $215M |
| Net cash (debt) | −$33.9B | −$29.6B | −$28.5B | −$23.6B | $341M |
What Prologis says it does
Prologis, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed REIT and is the sole general partner of Prologis, L.P. through which it holds substantially all of its assets. We operate Prologis, Inc. and Prologis, L.P. as one enterprise and, therefore, our discussion and analysis refers to Prologis, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries, including Prologis, L.P. We invest in real estate through wholly owned subsidiaries and other entities through which we co-invest with partners and investors ("co-investment ventures"). We have a significant ownership interest in the co-investment ventures, which are either consolidated or unconsolidated based on our level of control of the entity. Prologis, Inc. began operating as a fully integrated real estate company in 1997 and elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (“Internal Revenue Code” or “IRC”). We believe the current organization and method of operation…
Risk factors PLD lists in its 10-K
- Net Earnings Attributable to Common Stockholders/Unitholders
- Development Management and Other Revenues
- General and Administrative ("G&A") Expenses
- As a global company, we are subject to social, geopolitical and economic risks associated with conducting business in many countries and our results of operations and financial condition may be materially and adversely affected
- Compliance or failure to comply with regulatory requirements could result in substantial costs
- Disruptions in the global capital and credit markets may adversely affect our operating results and financial condition
- The depreciation in the value of the foreign currency in countries where we have a significant investment may adversely affect our results of operations and financial position
- Our hedging of foreign currency and interest rate risk may not effectively limit our exposure to these risks
- General economic conditions and other events or occurrences that affect areas in which our properties are geographically concentrated may impact financial results
- Real estate investments are not as liquid as certain other types of assets, which may reduce economic returns to investors
- Our investments are concentrated in the logistics sector and our business would be adversely affected by an economic downturn in that sector
- Investments in real estate properties are subject to risks that could adversely affect our business
- Our customers may be unable to meet their lease obligations or we may be unable to lease vacant space, renew leases or re-lease space on favorable terms as leases expire
- We may acquire properties and companies that involve risks that could adversely affect our business and financial condition
- Our real estate development and redevelopment strategies may not be successful
- We are exposed to various environmental risks, which may result in unanticipated losses that could affect our business and financial condition
- We are exposed to the impacts of climate change and could be required to comply with new or stricter regulations, which may result in unanticipated losses that could affect our business and financial condition
- Our business and operations could suffer in the event of system failures, cybersecurity attacks or risks associated with AI
- Our insurance coverage does not cover all potential losses
- Our business could be adversely impacted if we have deficiencies in our disclosure controls and procedures or internal control over financial reporting
- In order to meet REIT distribution requirements we may need access to external sources of capital
- Covenants in our credit agreements could limit our flexibility and breaches of these covenants could adversely affect our financial condition
- Adverse changes in our credit ratings could negatively affect our financing activity
- We may be unable to refinance our debt or our cash flow may be insufficient to make required debt payments
- Our stockholders may experience dilution if we issue additional common stock or units in the OP
- The failure of Prologis, Inc. to qualify as a REIT would have serious adverse consequences
- Certain property transfers may generate prohibited transaction income, resulting in a penalty tax on gain attributable to the transaction
- Legislative or regulatory action could adversely affect us
- Complying with REIT requirements may limit our flexibility or cause us to forego otherwise attractive opportunities