Welltower (WELL)
Real Estate · $180B market cap · SEC CIK 0000766704
ahead of 25% of the S&P 500 · #21 of 30 in Real Estate
Next reports on Feb 8, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.71 in earnings per share.
52-week range $181.47 to $255.20. 3% below its 52-week high and 36% above its low.
The case for WELL
- Revenue up 39.2% on the year.
- Generated $1.8B of free cash flow in FY2025, 17% of revenue.
- Earnings per share up 57.2%.
- Has compounded revenue at 18.7% a year over five years.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.79).
- Pays a modest 1.2% dividend.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 107.9× earnings, where 8%+ a year of growth would justify about 20×.
- Long-term debt of $19.2B would take 7 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Priced at 13.0× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 0.3 times.
- Return on equity of only 4%.
- Dividend takes 130% of earnings, leaving little cushion.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Real Estate companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 7 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 80 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 39 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 76 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 28 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 30 Real Estate companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +39.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +18.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.8B (+36%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.8B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 17% |
| Of profit | 190% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 40% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 4% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 12.2% → 8.9% → 12.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $5.0B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $19.2B |
| Net debt | $14.2B |
| Years to repay | 6.7 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 107.9× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 20× |
| Price / operating cash flow | 62.4× |
| Forward P/E | 73.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | 62.0× |
At 107.9× earnings it trades well above the 20× that 8%+ a year of growth would justify. At 62.4× operating cash flow it trades well above that same mark; for a REIT that counts for more than earnings, since depreciation makes its P/E look worse than the business is.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Welltower's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $10.8B | $8.0B | $6.6B | $5.9B | $4.7B |
| Change on the year | +36% | +20% | +13% | +24% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $853M | $993M |
| Of revenue | 17% | 18% | 16% | 15% | 21% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 8.9% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 7.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $5.0B | $3.5B | $2.0B | $632M | $269M |
| Long-term debt | $19.2B | $15.5B | $15.7B | $14.7B | $13.9B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$14.2B | −$12.0B | −$13.7B | −$14.1B | −$13.6B |
What Welltower says it does
Welltower Inc. (NYSE:WELL), a real estate investment trust (“REIT”) and S&P 500 company, is positioned at the center of the silver economy, focusing on rental housing for aging seniors across the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. Our portfolio predominantly consists of 2,500+ seniors and wellness housing communities that are positioned at the intersection of housing and hospitality, creating vibrant communities for mature renters and older adults. More information is available on the Internet at www.welltower.com. The information on our website is not incorporated by reference in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, and our web address is included as an inactive textual reference only. We are structured as an umbrella partnership REIT, or “UPREIT,” under which substantially all of our business is conducted through Welltower OP LLC (“Welltower OP”), the day-to-day management of which is exclusively controlled by Welltower Inc.…
Risk factors WELL lists in its 10-K
- Risks Arising from Our Capital Structure
- Risks Arising from Our Status as a REIT
- We are exposed to operational and legal risks with respect to our properties that could adversely affect our revenue and operations
- Decreases in our operators’ or tenants’ revenues or increases in our operators’ or tenants’ expenses, including as a result of increased labor costs, could affect their ability to make payments to us
- Increased competition and oversupply may affect our operators’ and managers’ ability to meet their obligations to us
- Our investments in and acquisitions of healthcare and seniors housing properties may be unsuccessful or fail to meet our expectations
- Acquired properties may expose us to unknown liability
- Competition for acquisitions may result in increased prices for properties
- Our investments in joint ventures could be adversely affected by our lack of exclusive control over these investments, our partners’ insolvency or failure to meet their obligations and disputes between us and our partners
- A severe cold and flu season, epidemics or any other widespread illnesses or public health crisis and government reaction thereto, could adversely affect the occupancy of our Seniors Housing Operating and Triple-net properties
- The insolvency or bankruptcy of our tenants, operators, borrowers, managers and other obligors may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition
- Ownership of property outside the U.S. may subject us to different or greater risks than those associated with our domestic operations
- We may be adversely affected by changing laws and regulation, including restrictions related to REIT ownership
- If our tenants do not renew their existing leases, or if we are required to sell properties for liquidity reasons,
- we may be unable to lease or sell the properties on favorable terms, or at all
- Our tenants, operators and managers may not have the necessary insurance coverage to insure adequately against losses
- Our ownership of properties through ground leases exposes us to the loss of such
- properties upon breach or termination of the ground leases
- Unfavorable resolution of pending and future litigation matters and disputes could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition
- Development, redevelopment and construction risks could affect our profitability
- Bank failures or other events affecting financial institutions could have a material adverse effect on our and our operators’ and tenants’ liquidity, results of operations and financial condition
- Sustainability-related laws, regulations, commitments and stakeholder expectations imposed additional cost and expose us to numerous risks
- We may incur costs to remediate environmental contamination at our properties, which could have an adverse effect on our or our obligors’ business or financial condition
- Cybersecurity incidents could disrupt our business and result in the loss of confidential information and legal liability
- Evolving privacy regulations could expose our business to reputational harm and losses
- Our approach to AI presents risks and challenges that can adversely impact our business
- Negative publicity regarding the healthcare industry could adversely affect our operations
- Our success and the success of our operators and managers depends on key personnel whose continued service is not guaranteed
- Welltower is a holding company with no direct operations, and it relies on funds received from Welltower OP to pay its obligations and make distributions to stockholders
- Cash available for distributions to stockholders may be insufficient to make dividend contributions at expected levels and are made at the discretion of the Board
- We are subject to covenants in our debt agreements that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition
- Limitations on our ability to access capital could have an adverse effect on our ability to make future investments or to meet our obligations and commitments
- Downgrades in our credit ratings could have a material adverse effect on our cost and availability of capital
- Elevated interest rates, or future interest rate increases, could have a material adverse effect on our cost of capital, and our decision to hedge against interest rate risk might not be effective
- We might fail to qualify or remain qualified as a REIT
- Failure of Welltower OP to maintain status as a partnership for U.S. federal income tax purposes
- Certain subsidiaries might fail to qualify or remain qualified as a REIT
- The tax imposed on any net income from “prohibited transactions” may limit our ability to engage in transactions which would be treated as sales for federal income tax purposes
- The 90% annual distribution requirement will decrease our liquidity and may limit our ability to engage in otherwise beneficial transactions
- Our use of TRSs is limited under the Code
- The lease of qualified healthcare properties to a TRS is subject to special requirements
- If certain sale-leaseback transactions are not characterized by the IRS as “true leases,” we may be subject to adverse tax consequences
- We could be subject to changes in our U.S. and non-U.S. tax rates, the adoption of new U.S. or non-U.S. tax legislation, or exposure to additional U.S. and non-U.S. tax liabilities
- The impact to our TRSs of the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax imposed by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is uncertain and may be adverse