AT&T (T)
Communication Services · $147B market cap · SEC CIK 0000732717
ahead of 31% of the S&P 500 · #12 of 19 in Communication Services
Next reports on Jan 26, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.55 in earnings per share.
52-week range $19.89 to $29.44. 25% below its 52-week high and 10% above its low.
The case for T
- Generated $19.4B of free cash flow in FY2025, 15% of revenue.
- Free cash flow of 13.2% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Pays a 6.8% dividend while you wait.
- Reasonably priced for its growth: 11.2× earnings, where 0% a year of growth plus a 6.8% dividend would justify about 18×.
- Gross margin of 60% absorbs cost shocks.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.27).
The case against
- Earnings per share down 39.4%.
- Revenue has shrunk 2.6% a year over five years.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.87).
- The price trend is weak (28/100): −12.2% over a year, −9.4% over three months, 25% below its 52-week high.
- Long-term debt of $135B against $18.2B of cash.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 24 points over the past year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Communication Services companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 79 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 14 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 53 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 28 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 83 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 19 Communication Services companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +3.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | −2.6% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $126B (+3%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $19.4B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 15% |
| Of profit | 89% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 60% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 18% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 8.9% → 17.5% → 10.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $18.2B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $135B |
| Net debt | $116B |
| Years to repay | 3.3 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 11.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 18× |
| P/FCF | 7.6× |
| Forward P/E | 8.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.8× |
At 11.2× earnings it trades below the 18× that 0% a year of growth plus a 6.8% dividend would justify. At 7.6× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from AT&T's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $126B | $122B | $122B | $121B | $134B |
| Change on the year | +3% | 0% | +1% | −10% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $19.4B | $18.5B | $20.5B | $16.2B | $26.4B |
| Of revenue | 15% | 15% | 17% | 13% | 20% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 19.2% | 15.6% | 19.2% | −3.8% | 19.3% |
| Net margin | 17.5% | 8.9% | 11.8% | −7.1% | 15.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $18.2B | $3.3B | $6.7B | $3.7B | $19.2B |
| Long-term debt | $135B | $122B | $133B | $133B | $167B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$116B | −$119B | −$127B | −$130B | −$148B |
What AT&T says it does
AT&T Inc. (“AT&T,” “we” or the “Company”) is a holding company incorporated under the laws of the State of Delaware in 1983 and has its principal executive offices at 208 S. Akard St., Dallas, Texas, 75202 (telephone number 210-821-4105). We maintain an internet website at www.att.com. (This website address is for information only and is not intended to be an active link or to incorporate any website information into this document.) We file electronically with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) required reports on Form 8-K, Form 10-Q and Form 10-K; proxy materials; registration statements on Forms S-3 and S-8, as necessary; and other forms or reports as required. The SEC maintains a website (www.sec.gov) that contains reports, proxy and information statements, and other information regarding issuers that file electronically with the SEC. We make available, free of charge, on our website our annual report on Form 10-K, our…
Risk factors T lists in its 10-K
- Adverse changes in the U.S. securities markets, a higher interest rate environment, rising inflation and medical costs could materially increase our benefit plan costs and future funding requirements
- Inflationary pressures on costs, such as inputs for devices we sell and network components, labor and distribution costs, may impact our network construction, our financial condition or results of operations
- Adverse changes in global financial markets could limit our ability and our larger customers’ and suppliers’ ability to access capital or increase the cost of capital needed to fund business operations
- Our international operations increase our exposure to political instability, to changes in the international economy and to regulation on our business, and these risks could offset our expected growth opportunities
- Increasing competition could materially adversely affect our operating results
- Intellectual property rights may be inadequate to take advantage of business opportunities, which may materially adversely affect our operations
- Incidents or public assertions leading to damage to our reputation or questions about our business conduct, and any resulting lawsuits, claims or other legal proceedings, could have a material adverse effect on our business
- Our business is subject to risks related to public health crises
- Company-Specific Financial Factors
- Customer adoption of new software-based technologies may require higher-quality services from us, and meeting these demands could create supply chain issues and could increase capital costs
- We depend on various suppliers to provide equipment to operate our business and satisfy customer demand, and interruption or delay in supply can adversely impact our operating results
- Increasing costs to provide services and failure to renew agreements on favorable terms, or at all, could adversely affect operating margins
- A significant portion of our workforce is represented by labor unions, and we could incur additional costs or experience work stoppages as a result of the renegotiation of our labor contracts
- Unfavorable litigation or governmental investigation results could require us to pay significant amounts or lead to onerous operating procedures
- Cyberattacks impacting our networks, systems or data or those of our suppliers or vendors may have a material adverse effect on our operations or results of operations
- Natural disasters, extreme weather conditions or terrorist or other hostile acts could cause damage to our infrastructure and result in significant disruptions to our operations
- Our business may be impacted by changes in tax laws and regulations, judicial interpretations of the same or administrative actions by
- federal, state, local and foreign taxing authorities