Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
Communication Services · $77.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0001437107
ahead of 11% of the S&P 500 · #16 of 19 in Communication Services
Next reports on Feb 24, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting −$0.04 in earnings per share.
52-week range $21.87 to $30.99. At its 52-week high and 42% above its low.
The case for WBD
- Has compounded revenue at 28.4% a year over five years.
- Moves less than the market (beta −0.59).
- Within 1% of its 52-week high: the trend is up.
- Up 63.0% over the past year.
The case against
- Losing money over the last year: net margin −8.8%, return on equity −9%.
- Expensive for its growth: 106.4× earnings, where 1% a year of growth would justify about 9×.
- Revenue fell 6.0% year over year.
- Earnings per share down 90.8%.
- Long-term debt of $32.6B would take 8 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 1.8 times.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Communication Services companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 13 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 36 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 28 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 90 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 38 |
- The P/E (106.4×) says it made money over the last year but its net margin (−8.8%) says it lost money, so the P/E is not counted in its favour.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 19 Communication Services companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, shrinking
| Last 12 months | −6.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +28.4% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $37.3B (−5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $3.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 8% |
| Of profit | 425% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Improving, still at a loss
| Gross margin | 48% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | −4% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | −28.8% → 1.9% → −8.8% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $4.6B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $32.6B |
| Net debt | $28.0B |
| Years to repay | 7.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 106.4× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 9× |
| P/FCF | 25.1× |
| EV / EBITDA | 28.7× |
At 106.4× earnings it trades well above the 9× that 1% a year of growth would justify. At 25.1× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Warner Bros. Discovery's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $37.3B | $39.3B | $41.3B | $33.8B | $12.2B |
| Change on the year | −5% | −5% | +22% | +177% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $3.1B | $4.4B | $6.2B | $3.3B | $2.4B |
| Of revenue | 8% | 11% | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 2.0% | −25.5% | −3.7% | −21.8% | 16.5% |
| Net margin | 1.9% | −28.8% | −7.6% | −21.8% | 8.3% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $4.6B | $5.3B | $3.8B | $3.7B | $3.9B |
| Long-term debt | $32.6B | $39.5B | $43.7B | $49.0B | $14.8B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$28.0B | −$34.2B | −$39.9B | −$45.3B | −$10.9B |
What Warner Bros. Discovery says it does
For convenience, the terms “Warner Bros. Discovery”, “WBD”, the “Company,” “we,” “us” or “our” are used in this Annual Report on Form 10-K to refer to both Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and collectively to Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and one or more of its consolidated subsidiaries, unless the context otherwise requires. 6 Industry Trends Headwinds in the industry, such as continued pressures on linear distribution and declines in linear subscribers and continued softness in the U.S. linear advertising market, have had, and are expected to continue to have, a material impact on the operations and results of the Company, including a negative impact on the results of operations attributed to declines in linear advertising revenue. The increase of digital advertising inventory available in the marketplace has also resulted in, and is expected to continue to result in, increased competition for advertising expenditures for both traditional…
Risk factors WBD lists in its 10-K
- While the PSKY Merger is pending, we will be subject to business uncertainties and certain contractual restrictions that could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition
- Our businesses operate in highly competitive industries and if we are unable to compete effectively, our business, financial condition and results of operations could suffer
- Our advertising revenues have been, and may continue to be, adversely impacted by several factors, including the changing landscape of television advertising spending and advertising market conditions
- Changes in consumer behavior, as well as evolving technologies and distribution models, may negatively affect our business, financial condition or results of operations
- The success of our business depends on the acceptance of our content and brands by our U.S. and international viewers, which may be unpredictable and volatile
- If our streaming products fail to attract and retain subscribers, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be adversely impacted
- Failure to renew, renewal with less favorable terms, or termination of our content licenses and similar distribution agreements may cause a decline in our revenue
- We rely on platforms owned by our competitors for digital and linear distribution of our content
- Our businesses have been, and in the future may be, subject to labor disruption
- We have recognized, and could continue to recognize, impairment charges related to goodwill and other intangible assets
- The terms of the Bridge Loan Facility may restrict our current and future operations, particularly our ability to respond to changes or to take certain actions
- We may be unable to obtain permanent financing to refinance the Bridge Loan Facility on favorable terms in a timely manner or at all
- We could be unable to obtain cash in amounts sufficient to meet our financial obligations or other commitments
- Forecasting our financial results requires us to make judgments and estimates which may differ materially from actual results
- Corporate restructurings, strategic transactions and acquisitions present many risks and we may not realize the financial and strategic goals that were contemplated at the time of any transaction
- Certain of our businesses are conducted through joint ventures or partnerships with one or more third parties, in which we share ownership, management, and profits of the business operation to varying degrees
- Our charter and bylaws contain provisions that may make it difficult for a third party to acquire us, even if such acquisition would be beneficial to our stockholders
- Risks related to international operations could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations
- Environmental, social and governance laws, and regulations may adversely impact our businesses
- Foreign exchange rate fluctuations may adversely affect our operating results and financial conditions
- Increasing complexity of global tax policy and regulations could increase our tax liability and adversely impact our business and results of operations
- We face cybersecurity and related risks, which could lead to the disclosure of confidential information, disruption of our programming services, damage to our brands and reputation, legal liabilities, and financial losses
- Our business, financial condition and results of operations may be negatively impacted by the outcome of uncertainties related to litigation
- Global economic conditions and other global events may have an adverse effect on our business
- The market price of our common stock has been highly volatile and may continue to be volatile due, in part, to circumstances beyond our control
- Our participation in multiemployer defined benefit pension plans could subject us to liabilities that could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations