T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Communication Services · $178B market cap · SEC CIK 0001283699
ahead of 76% of the S&P 500 · #5 of 19 in Communication Services
Next reports on Feb 9, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.79 in earnings per share.
52-week range $143.75 to $224.75. 25% below its 52-week high and 18% above its low.
The case for TMUS
- Cheap for its growth: 15.8× earnings, where 15% a year of growth plus a 1.7% dividend would justify about 33×.
- Generated $18.0B of free cash flow in FY2025, 20% of revenue.
- Free cash flow of 10.1% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Revenue growing 9.3% year over year.
- Return on equity of 20%.
- Gross margin of 63% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.91).
- The price trend is weak (31/100): −18.5% over a year, −5.3% over three months, 25% below its 52-week high.
- Long-term debt of $81.1B against $5.6B of cash.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 31 points over the past year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Communication Services companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 87 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 56 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 71 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 31 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 63 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 19 Communication Services companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +9.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +5.2% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $88.3B (+8%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $18.0B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 20% |
| Of profit | 164% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 63% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 21% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 13.9% → 12.4% → 12.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $5.6B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $81.1B |
| Net debt | $75.5B |
| Years to repay | 2.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 15.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 33× |
| P/FCF | 9.9× |
| Forward P/E | 11.5× |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.8× |
At 15.8× earnings it trades well below the 33× that 15% a year of growth plus a 1.7% dividend would justify. At 9.9× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from T-Mobile US's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $88.3B | $81.4B | $78.6B | $79.6B | $80.1B |
| Change on the year | +8% | +4% | −1% | −1% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $18.0B | $13.5B | $8.8B | $2.8B | $1.6B |
| Of revenue | 20% | 17% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 20.7% | 22.1% | 18.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% |
| Net margin | 12.4% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $5.6B | $5.4B | $5.1B | $4.5B | $6.6B |
| Long-term debt | $81.1B | $74.2B | $71.4B | $66.8B | $67.1B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$75.5B | −$68.8B | −$66.3B | −$62.3B | −$60.4B |
What T-Mobile US says it does
Business Overview and Strategy Un-carrier Strategy As America’s supercharged Un-carrier, we have disrupted the telecommunications industry by actively engaging with and listening to our customers and focusing on eliminating their pain points. Our customers benefit from what we believe is an unmatched combination of the best value and best network, alongside an unwavering focus on offering them the best possible service experience and an undisputable drive for disruptive innovation in wireless and beyond. This includes providing added value and what we believe is an exceptional experience while implementing signature Un-carrier initiatives that have changed the industry. We ended annual service contracts, overages, unpredictable international roaming fees and data buckets, among other things. We are inspired by a relentless focus on customer experience, consistently delivering award-winning customer experience, which drives our customer…
Risk factors TMUS lists in its 10-K
- We operate in a highly competitive industry. If we are unable to attract and retain customers, our business, financial condition, and operating results could be negatively affected
- “Any acquisition, investment, joint venture, merger, or divestiture may subject us to significant risks, any of which may harm our business”
- We have experienced cyberattacks and may experience disruptions, data loss and other security breaches, whether directly or indirectly through third parties whose products and services we rely on in operating our business
- If we fail to adopt and deploy emerging network technologies in a timely and effective manner, our competitive position could erode, which may adversely affect our business, financial condition, and operating results
- If we fail to effectively execute our digital transformation and drive customer and employee adoption of emerging technologies, our competitive position and financial performance could be materially harmed
- System failures and business disruptions may prevent us from providing reliable service, which could materially and adversely affect our reputation and financial condition
- The scarcity and cost of additional wireless spectrum, and regulations relating to spectrum use, may adversely affect our business, financial condition, and operating results
- Any acquisition, investment, joint venture, merger, or divestiture may subject us to significant risks, any of which may harm our business
- Economic, political, and market conditions may adversely affect our business, financial condition, and operating results
- If we do not successfully deliver new products and services, we may not realize our intended growth targets or generate the expected returns from our business, adversely affecting our financial condition and operating results
- Sociopolitical volatility and polarization may adversely affect our business operations and reputation
- Our substantial level of indebtedness could adversely affect our business flexibility and ability to service our debt and could increase our borrowing costs
- Changes in credit market conditions and other factors could adversely affect our ability to raise debt favorably
- Laws and regulations relating to the handling of privacy, data protection, and AI may result in increased costs, legal claims, fines, or reputational damage
- Unfavorable outcomes of legal proceedings may adversely affect our business, reputation, financial condition, cash flows, and operating results
- Our business may be adversely impacted if we are not able to protect our intellectual property rights or if we infringe on the intellectual property rights of others
- We offer regulated financial services products. These products expose us to a wide variety of state and federal regulations
- Our business may be impacted by new or amended tax laws or regulations or administrative interpretations and judicial decisions affecting the scope or application of tax laws or regulations
- Our wireless licenses are subject to renewal and may be revoked in the event that we violate applicable laws
- DT controls a majority of the voting power of our common stock and the T-Mobile trademarks we utilize in our business and may have interests that differ from the interests of our other stockholders
- We cannot guarantee that our current and future stockholder return programs will be fully utilized or that they will enhance long-term stockholder value
- Future sales of our common stock by DT and foreign ownership limitations by the FCC could have a negative impact on our stock price and decrease the value of our stock