Amcor (AMCR)
Materials · $20.9B market cap · SEC CIK 0001748790
ahead of 77% of the S&P 500 · #3 of 26 in Materials
Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, with analysts expecting $1.11 in earnings per share.
52-week range $36.25 to $50.94. 11% below its 52-week high and 25% above its low.
The case for AMCR
- Revenue up 37.3% on the year.
- Pays a 5.3% dividend while you wait.
- Has compounded revenue at 12.8% a year over five years.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.54).
- Free-cash-flow yield of 5.9% is higher than 88% of Materials companies.
The case against
- Long-term debt of $13.9B would take 6 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Dividend takes 111% of earnings, leaving little cushion.
- Profitability is weak (39/100): return on equity 9%, net margin 4.5%, gross margin 20%, 111% of profit turned to cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 79 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 89 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 39 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 53 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 52 |
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +37.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +12.8% a year |
| FY2026 revenue | $23.5B (+57%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2026 free cash flow | $1.2B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 5% |
| Of profit | 111% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 20% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 8% |
| Net margin, FY25 → FY26 → now | 3.4% → 4.7% → 4.5% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $13.9B |
| Net debt | $12.7B |
| Years to repay | 6.4 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 19.2× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 21.8× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 28× |
| P/FCF | 17.0× |
| Forward P/E | 11.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.2× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 21.8× those mid-cycle earnings (19.2× the latest year's) it trades below the 28× that 8%+ a year of growth plus a 5.3% dividend would justify. At 17.0× free cash flow it trades below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Amcor's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $23.5B | $15.0B | $13.6B | $14.7B | $14.5B |
| Change on the year | +57% | +10% | −7% | +1% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $1.2B | $810M | $829M | $735M | $999M |
| Of revenue | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 20.0% | 18.9% | 19.9% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| Operating margin | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.1B | $827M | $588M | $689M | $775M |
| Long-term debt | $13.9B | $13.8B | $6.6B | $6.7B | $6.3B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$12.7B | −$13.0B | −$6.0B | −$6.0B | −$5.6B |
Filings
The text of this 10-K could not be read automatically. The original is linked below.