Ball Corporation (BALL)
Materials · $17.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0000009389
ahead of 43% of the S&P 500 · #15 of 26 in Materials
Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.95 in earnings per share.
52-week range $46.06 to $69.58. 4% below its 52-week high and 45% above its low.
The case for BALL
- Revenue growing 19.2% year over year.
- Pays a modest 1.5% dividend.
The case against
- Long-term debt of $7.0B would take 6 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Net margin of 3.5% leaves very little room for error.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 60 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 51 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 41 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 78 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 41 |
- Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +19.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +2.2% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.2B (+12%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $788M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 6% |
| Of profit | 86% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 18% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 6% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 34.0% → 7.0% → 3.5% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $1.2B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $7.0B |
| Net debt | $5.8B |
| Years to repay | 5.5 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 32.3× |
|---|---|
| P/E on mid-cycle earnings | 25.0× |
| Fair P/E for its growth | 22× |
| P/FCF | 21.8× |
| Forward P/E | 15.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 15.3× |
Its profits follow commodity prices, so they are taken as half the latest year and half the average of recent years. At 25.0× those mid-cycle earnings (32.3× the latest year's) it trades close to the 22× that 8%+ a year of growth plus a 1.5% dividend would justify. At 21.8× free cash flow it trades close to that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Ball Corporation's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $13.2B | $11.8B | $12.1B | $13.4B | $13.8B |
| Change on the year | +12% | −2% | −10% | −3% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $788M | −$369M | $818M | −$1.4B | $34.0M |
| Of revenue | 6% | −3% | 7% | −10% | 0% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | — | — | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% |
| Net margin | 7.0% | 34.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.2B | $885M | $695M | $548M | $563M |
| Long-term debt | $7.0B | $5.3B | $7.5B | $7.5B | $7.7B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$5.8B | −$4.4B | −$6.8B | −$7.0B | −$7.2B |
What Ball Corporation says it does
Ball Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries (collectively, Ball, the company, we or our) is one of the world’s leading suppliers of aluminum packaging for the beverage, personal care and household products industries. The company was organized in 1880 and incorporated in the state of Indiana, United States of America (U.S.), in 1922. Our sustainable, aluminum packaging products are produced for a variety of end uses and are manufactured in facilities around the world. In 2025, our total consolidated net sales were $13.16 billion. Our largest product line is aluminum beverage containers and we also produce extruded aluminum aerosol containers, recloseable aluminum bottles across multiple consumer categories and aluminum slugs. We sell our aluminum packaging products globally to large multinational beverage, personal care and household products companies with which we have developed long-term relationships. This is evidenced by…
Risk factors BALL lists in its 10-K
- If we do not effectively manage change and growth, our business could be adversely affected
- Our business, operating results and financial condition are subject to particular risks in certain regions of the world
- The loss of a key customer, or an adverse change in its requirements, could have a significant negative impact on our sales
- We have a significant level of debt that could have important consequences for our business and any investment in our securities
- We face competitive risks from many sources that may negatively impact our profitability
- We are subject to competition from alternative products, which could result in lower profits and reduced cash flows
- Our packaging businesses have a narrow product range, and our business would suffer if usage of our products decreased or if decreases occur in the demand for the beverages and other goods filled in our products
- Our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations are subject to risks resulting from broader geographic operations
- We are exposed to exchange rate fluctuations
- We are vulnerable to fluctuations and disruptions in the supply and price of raw materials, including increases in tariffs on imported goods
- Net earnings and net assets could be materially affected by an impairment of goodwill
- Restricted access to capital markets could adversely affect our short-term liquidity and prevent us from fulfilling our obligations under the notes issued pursuant to our bond indentures
- The global credit, financial and economic environment could have a negative impact on our results of operations, financial position or cash flows
- Changes in U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP) and SEC rules and regulations could materially impact our reported results
- A material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting could, if not remediated, result in material misstatements in our financial statements
- Internal Control—An Integrated Framework
- We face risks related to health epidemics, pandemics and other outbreaks, which could adversely affect our business
- Our investments in acquisitions, joint ventures and new developments may include risks that could have an adverse impact on our business
- Changes in laws and governmental regulations may adversely affect our business and operations
- Our business faces the potential of increased regulation on some of the raw materials utilized in our packaging operations
- Earnings and cash flows can be impacted by changes in tax laws
- Decreases in our ability to develop or apply new technology and know-how may affect our competitiveness
- If we fail to retain key management and personnel, we may be unable to implement our key objectives
- Prolonged work stoppages at facilities with union employees could jeopardize our financial position
- Adverse weather and climate changes may result in lower sales
- Our business is subject to substantial environmental remediation and compliance costs