CF Industries (CF)

Materials · $17.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0001324404

Next reports on Feb 16, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $3.45 in earnings per share.

52-week range $75.42 to $141.96. 14% below its 52-week high and 62% above its low.

The case for CF

• Cheap for its growth: 7.4× mid-cycle earnings, where 8%+ a year of growth plus a 2.0% dividend would justify about 23×.
• Earns 40% back on shareholder equity.
• Generated $1.8B of free cash flow in FY2025, 25% of revenue.
• 27% of revenue drops through to net profit.
• Free cash flow of 10.3% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
• Revenue growing 17.9% year over year.

The case against

• Weakest against its peers: price/sales of 2.2× is higher than 56% of Materials companies.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Its profits follow commodity prices, so its earnings and margin are read as half the latest year and half the average of the years on file (5), and last year's change in earnings per share is not counted as growth.
• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from CF Industries's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What CF Industries says it does

Our Company All references to “CF Holdings,” “we,” “us,” “our” and “the Company,” refer to CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiaries, except where the context makes clear that the reference is to CF Industries Holdings, Inc. only and not its subsidiaries. All references to “CF Industries” refer to CF Industries, Inc., a 100% owned subsidiary of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. References to tons refer to short tons. Notes referenced throughout this document refer to consolidated financial statement note disclosures that are found in Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Our mission is to provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably. With our employees focused on safe and reliable operations, environmental stewardship, and disciplined capital and corporate management, we are on a path to decarbonize our ammonia production network – the world’s largest – to…

Risk factors CF lists in its 10-K

• Nitrogen products are global commodities, and we face intense global competition from other producers
• A decline in agricultural production, limitations on the use of our products for agricultural purposes or developments in crop technology could materially adversely affect the demand for our products
• Our business is dependent on natural gas, the prices of which are subject to volatility
• Our operating results fluctuate due to seasonality. Our inability to predict future seasonal fertilizer demand accurately could result in our having excess inventory, potentially at costs in excess of market value
• Our operations are dependent upon raw materials and utilities provided by third parties, and any delay or interruption in the delivery of raw materials or utilities may adversely affect our business
• Our transportation and distribution activities, including those related to carbon dioxide (CO
• We are reliant on a limited number of key facilities
• Failure, inadequacy, breach of, or unauthorized access to, our information technology systems or those of third-party service providers or customers could negatively affect our business and operations
• Acts of terrorism and regulations to combat terrorism could negatively affect our business
• Our international operations and business activities expose us to risks that could negatively affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
• Our indebtedness could adversely affect our cash flow, prevent us from fulfilling our obligations and impair our ability to pursue or achieve other business objectives
• Tax matters, including changes in tax laws or rates, adverse determinations by taxing authorities and imposition of new taxes could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition
• Our business is subject to risks involving derivatives and the risk that our hedging activities might not prevent losses
• Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo
• Regulatory or legislative provisions related to GHG emissions in the jurisdictions in which we operate or conduct business could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
• If we fail to successfully enter into or close collaborations, joint ventures, partnerships or acquisitions, or successfully manage such transactions, it could adversely affect our business and growth opportunities
• Failure of technologies to perform, develop or be available as expected could adversely affect our ability to produce low-carbon ammonia and our financial results or reputation

Filings

Other Materials companies