CF Industries (CF)
Materials · $18.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0001324404
fundamentals score out of 100
Next reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.99 in earnings per share.
The case for CF
- Revenue up 20.0% on the year.
- Cheap on earnings at 8.7×, well under the market's usual 20×.
- Earns 40% back on shareholder equity.
- Generated $1.8B of free cash flow in FY2025, 25% of revenue.
- 27% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Free cash flow of 9.9% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
The case against
- Weakest against its peers: price/sales of 2.4× is higher than 60% of Materials companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings, sales, assets and cash | 88 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 82 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 86 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 79 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 75 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
Key numbers
| Price / earnings | 8.7× |
|---|---|
| Price / book | 2.89× |
| Price / sales | 2.4× |
| Revenue growth (YoY) | +20.0% |
| EPS growth (YoY) | +76.3% |
| Gross margin | 42% |
| Operating margin | 41% |
| Net margin | 27% |
| Return on equity | 40% |
| Debt / equity | 0.56× |
| Current ratio | 4.86 |
| Dividend yield | 2.04% |
| Beta | 0.53 |
| 52-week range | $75.42 – $141.96 |
| Position in that range | 68% of the way up |
| 3-month return | +19.8% |
| 1-year return | +44.9% |
Five years of financials, as filed
Pulled from CF Industries's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are derived from the rows above.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | $5.9B | $6.6B | $11.2B | $6.5B |
| Gross profit | $2.7B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $5.9B | $2.4B |
| Operating income | $2.3B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $5.4B | $1.7B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.8B | $2.3B | $2.8B | $3.9B | $2.9B |
| Capital expenditure | $950M | $518M | $499M | $453M | $514M |
| Total assets | $14.1B | $13.5B | $14.4B | $13.3B | $12.4B |
| Shareholder equity | $4.8B | $5.0B | $5.7B | $5.1B | $3.2B |
| Cash | $2.0B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $1.6B |
| Long-term debt | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $3.5B |
| Free cash flow | $1.8B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $3.4B | $2.4B |
| Gross margin | 38.5% | 34.6% | 38.4% | 52.4% | 36.5% |
| Operating margin | 32.5% | 29.4% | 33.6% | 48.2% | 26.4% |
| Diluted shares | 162M | 181M | 194M | 204M | 216M |
Share count is down 25.0% over 4 years. Buybacks have been shrinking the pie.
What CF Industries says it does
—Manufacturing Facilities and Item 1. Business—Storage Facilities and Other Properties. ITEM 3. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS. We are and may be, from time to time, party to various legal proceedings, government investigations and environmental proceedings. Legal proceedings may include ordinary, routine legal proceedings related to the usual conduct of our business and proceedings regarding public utility and transportation rates, environmental matters, taxes and permits relating to the operations of our various plants and facilities. In addition, from time to time, we receive communications from government or regulatory agencies concerning investigations or allegations of noncompliance with laws or regulations in jurisdictions in which we operate. For information on pending proceedings relating to environmental remediation matters, see Item 1. Business—Environmental, Health and Safety—CERCLA/Remediation Matters. ITEM 4. MINE SAFETY DISCLOSURES.…
Risk factors CF lists in its 10-K
- Nitrogen products are global commodities, and we face intense global competition from other producers
- A decline in agricultural production, limitations on the use of our products for agricultural purposes or developments in crop technology could materially adversely affect the demand for our products
- Our business is dependent on natural gas, the prices of which are subject to volatility
- Our operating results fluctuate due to seasonality. Our inability to predict future seasonal fertilizer demand accurately could result in our having excess inventory, potentially at costs in excess of market value
- Our operations are dependent upon raw materials and utilities provided by third parties, and any delay or interruption in the delivery of raw materials or utilities may adversely affect our business
- Our transportation and distribution activities, including those related to carbon dioxide (CO
- We are reliant on a limited number of key facilities
- Failure, inadequacy, breach of, or unauthorized access to, our information technology systems or those of third-party service providers or customers could negatively affect our business and operations
- Acts of terrorism and regulations to combat terrorism could negatively affect our business
- Our international operations and business activities expose us to risks that could negatively affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows
- Our indebtedness could adversely affect our cash flow, prevent us from fulfilling our obligations and impair our ability to pursue or achieve other business objectives
- Tax matters, including changes in tax laws or rates, adverse determinations by taxing authorities and imposition of new taxes could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition
- Our business is subject to risks involving derivatives and the risk that our hedging activities might not prevent losses
- Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo