Healthpeak Properties (DOC)
Real Estate · $14.6B market cap · SEC CIK 0000765880
ahead of 15% of the S&P 500 · #24 of 30 in Real Estate
Next reports on Feb 1, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.05 in earnings per share.
52-week range $15.70 to $22.95. 11% below its 52-week high and 30% above its low.
The case for DOC
- Revenue growing 9.4% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 11.4% a year over five years.
- Gross margin of 57% absorbs cost shocks.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 38.6× earnings, where 0% a year of growth would justify about 8×.
- Long-term debt of $9.8B would take 8 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 1.9 times.
- A yield of 8.2% is usually the market pricing in a cut.
- Return on equity of only 5%.
- Growth is weak (40/100): revenue +9.4%, +11.4% a year over five years.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Real Estate companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 31 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 40 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 42 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 59 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 32 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 30 Real Estate companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +9.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +11.4% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.8B (+5%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $357M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 13% |
| Of profit | 500% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 57% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 20% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 9.0% → 2.5% → 12.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $467M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $9.8B |
| Net debt | $9.4B |
| Years to repay | 7.9 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 38.6× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 8× |
| Price / operating cash flow | 11.6× |
| Forward P/E | 65.2× |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.4× |
At 38.6× earnings it trades well above the 8× that 0% a year of growth would justify. At 11.6× operating cash flow it trades above that same mark; for a REIT that counts for more than earnings, since depreciation makes its P/E look worse than the business is.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Healthpeak Properties's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $2.8B | $2.7B | $2.2B | $2.1B | $1.9B |
| Change on the year | +5% | +24% | +6% | +9% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $357M | $334M | $182M | −$61.7M | $35.5M |
| Of revenue | 13% | 12% | 8% | −3% | 2% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | 2.5% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 24.3% | 26.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $467M | $120M | $118M | $72.0M | $158M |
| Long-term debt | $9.8B | $8.7B | $6.9B | $6.5B | $6.2B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$9.4B | −$8.6B | −$6.8B | −$6.4B | −$6.0B |
What Healthpeak Properties says it does
Overview Healthpeak Properties, Inc. is a Standard & Poor’s (“S&P”) 500 company that owns, operates, and develops high-quality real estate focused on healthcare discovery and delivery in the United States (“U.S.”). Our company was originally founded in 1985. We are organized as an umbrella partnership REIT (“UPREIT”). We hold substantially all of our assets and conduct our operations through our operating subsidiary, Healthpeak OP, a consolidated subsidiary of which we are the managing member. We are a Maryland corporation and qualify as a self-administered REIT. We are headquartered in Denver, Colorado, with additional corporate offices in California, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts and property management offices in several locations throughout the U.S. We have a diversified portfolio of high-quality healthcare properties across three core asset classes of outpatient medical, lab, and senior housing real estate. Under the…
Risk factors DOC lists in its 10-K
- Changes to regulatory, funding, staffing, trade, and other policies and actions by the U.S. political administration could adversely affect our business operations or the operations of our tenants or operators
- We may be negatively impacted by macroeconomic trends that may increase borrowing, construction, labor, and other operating or administrative costs for us and our tenants, operators, and borrowers
- Life science industry changes could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- Our lab tenants face significant regulation, funding requirements, and uncertainty
- We may be negatively impacted by the insolvency or bankruptcy of, or the inability to obtain funding by, one or more of our major tenants, operators, or borrowers
- The illiquidity of our real estate investments may prevent us from timely responding to economic or investment performance changes
- Identifying and securing new or replacement tenants or operators can be time consuming and costly
- Property development, redevelopment, and tenant improvement risks can render a project less profitable or unprofitable and delay or prevent its undertaking or completion
- We assume operational risks with respect to our senior housing properties managed in RIDEA structures that could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- Required regulatory approvals can delay or prohibit transfers of our senior housing properties
- Compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act and fire, safety, and other regulations may require us to make expenditures that adversely affect our cash flows
- Uninsured or underinsured losses could result in a significant loss of capital invested in a property, lower than expected future revenues, and unanticipated expenses
- Our use of joint ventures may limit our returns on and our flexibility with jointly owned investments
- Rent escalators or contingent rent provisions in our leases could hinder our profitability and growth
- Competition may make it difficult to identify and purchase, or develop, suitable healthcare properties to grow our investment portfolio, to finance acquisitions on favorable terms, or to retain or attract tenants and operators
- We may be required to recognize reserves, allowances, credit losses, or impairment charges
- We may invest substantial resources and time in investments or transactions that are not consummated
- We may not be able to successfully integrate or operate acquisitions and/or internalize property management, or may incur unanticipated liabilities
- We may be affected by unfavorable resolution of litigation or disputes and rising liability and insurance costs as a result thereof or other market factors
- Environmental compliance costs and liabilities associated with our real estate-related investments may be substantial and may materially impair the value of those investments
- Corporate impact and sustainability commitments and changing requirements, as well as varying stakeholder expectations, may impose additional costs and expose us to new risks
- We may be impacted by epidemics, pandemics, or other infectious disease outbreaks, and health and safety measures intended to reduce their spread
- Laws or regulations prohibiting eviction of our tenants, even on a temporary basis, could have a material adverse effect on our revenues if our tenants fail to make their contractual rent payments to us
- Human capital risks, including the loss or limited availability of our key personnel, could disrupt or impair our operations
- We rely on information technology in our operations, and any material failure, inadequacy, interruption, or security failure of that technology could harm our business
- Volatility, disruption, or uncertainty in the financial markets may impair our ability to raise capital, obtain new financing or refinance existing obligations, and fund acquisition and development activities
- Increased interest rates and borrowing costs could materially adversely impact our business and ability to refinance existing debt, sell properties, and conduct investment activities
- Cash available for distribution to stockholders may be insufficient to make dividend distributions at expected levels and are made at the discretion of our Board of Directors
- If access to external capital is unavailable on acceptable terms or at all, it could have a material adverse effect on our ability to meet commitments as they become due or make investments necessary to grow our business
- Our level of indebtedness may increase and materially adversely affect our future operations
- Covenants in our debt instruments limit our operational flexibility, and breaches of these covenants could result in adverse actions by our creditors
- The market price and trading volume of our common stock may be volatile
- Adverse changes in our credit ratings could impair our ability to obtain additional debt and equity financing on favorable terms
- Risks Related to the Pending Janus Living Offering and Our Relationship with Janus Living if the Janus Living Offering is Completed
- The pending Janus Living Offering may not be completed on the currently contemplated timeline or terms, or at all, and may not achieve the intended benefits
- We will have significant economic exposure to shifts in the price of Janus Living common stock and our ability to control the assets and activities of Janus Living may be limited
- There are conflicts of interest in our relationship with Janus Living and our officers and/or directors who are also officers and/or directors of Janus Living
- Loss of our tax status as a REIT would substantially reduce our available funds and would have materially adverse consequences for us and the value of our common stock
- Our taxable REIT subsidiaries (TRSs) may be subject to corporate level tax
- The tax imposed on any net income from “prohibited transactions” may limit our ability to engage in transactions which would be treated as sales for federal income tax purposes
- Further changes to U.S. federal income tax laws could materially and adversely affect us and our stockholders
- Potential deferred and contingent tax liabilities from corporate acquisitions could limit or delay future property sales
- There are uncertainties relating to the calculation of non-REIT tax earnings and profits (“E&P”) in certain acquisitions, which may require us to distribute E&P
- Tax protection agreements may limit our ability to sell or otherwise dispose of certain properties and may require us to maintain certain debt levels that otherwise would not be required to operate our business
- Our charter contains ownership limits with respect to our common stock and other classes of capital stock
- We are subject to certain provisions of Maryland law and our charter relating to business combinations that may prevent a transaction that may otherwise be in the interest of our stockholders
- Certain provisions in the operating agreement of Healthpeak OP or other agreements may delay or prevent unsolicited acquisitions of us or certain other transactions