International Paper (IP)
Materials · $18.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0000051434
ahead of 1% of the S&P 500 · #26 of 26 in Materials
Next reports on Jan 27, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.44 in earnings per share.
52-week range $29.26 to $50.25. 30% below its 52-week high and 20% above its low.
The case for IP
- Pays a 5.6% dividend while you wait.
The case against
- Losing money over the last year: net margin −14.3%, return on equity −24%.
- Revenue fell 18.0% year over year.
- Burned $159M of free cash in FY2025.
- Long-term debt of $8.8B would take 5 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Free-cash-flow yield of −0.9% is lower than 88% of Materials companies.
- The price trend is weak (30/100): −6.7% over a year, −14.1% over three months, 30% below its 52-week high.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Materials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 19 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 29 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 8 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 30 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 27 |
- It is losing money, so it has no P/E; that counts against value rather than being skipped.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 26 Materials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, shrinking
| Last 12 months | −18.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +6.1% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $23.6B (+49%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$159M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −1% |
| Of profit | n/a |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 30% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | −15% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 3.5% → −14.9% → −14.3% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $1.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $8.8B |
| Net debt | $7.7B |
| Years to repay | 5.2 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Hard to say: no earnings to price
| P/E | n/a (a loss) |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 16× |
| P/FCF | no free cash flow |
| Forward P/E | 14.6× |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.1× |
| Price / sales | 0.8× |
It has no earnings to price. Its free cash flow is negative, which counts against it.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from International Paper's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $23.6B | $15.8B | $16.0B | $21.2B | $19.4B |
| Change on the year | +49% | −1% | −24% | +9% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$159M | $757M | $692M | $1.2B | $1.6B |
| Of revenue | −1% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 8% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Net margin | −14.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $804M | $1.3B |
| Long-term debt | $8.8B | $5.4B | $5.5B | $4.8B | $5.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$7.7B | −$4.3B | −$4.3B | −$4.0B | −$4.1B |
What International Paper says it does
DESCRIPTION OF BUSINESS International Paper Company (the "Company," "International Paper" or "IP", which may also be referred to as "we" or "us") is a global leader in sustainable packaging solutions. We produce renewable fiber-based packaging products with manufacturing operations in North America, Latin America, Europe and North Africa. We are a New York corporation, incorporated in 1941 as the successor to the New York corporation of the same name organized in 1898. In recent years, the Company has undergone significant transformation designed to simplify our operations, strengthen performance and position the business for long-term value creation. STRATEGY At International Paper, we follow the IP 80/20 performance system. The 80/20 approach is a disciplined, data-driven operating model focused on simplification, segmentation, resourcing and growth. In recent years the Company has taken actions to drive meaningful operational…