Uber (UBER)
Industrials · $139B market cap · SEC CIK 0001543151
ahead of 44% of the S&P 500 · #41 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Feb 2, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $1.04 in earnings per share.
52-week range $64.04 to $95.18. 26% below its 52-week high and 9% above its low.
The case for UBER
- Generated $9.8B of free cash flow in FY2025, 19% of revenue.
- Free cash flow of 7.0% of its market value a year: a lot of cash for the price.
- Revenue growing 13.9% year over year.
- Has compounded revenue at 36.1% a year over five years.
The case against
- Earnings per share down 78.4%.
- Down 22.6% over the past year.
- Priced at 40.2× earnings while earnings per share are shrinking (−78.4%).
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 13.9% this year against 36.1% a year over five.
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 26% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
- Profitability is weak (34/100): return on equity 13%, net margin 6.1%, gross margin 38%, 97% of profit turned to cash.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 83 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 69 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 34 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 24 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 61 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +13.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +36.1% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $52.0B (+18%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes, plenty
| FY2025 free cash flow | $9.8B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 19% |
| Of profit | 97% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 38% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 12% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 22.4% → 19.3% → 6.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $7.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $10.5B |
| Net debt | $3.4B |
| Years to repay | 1.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, it looks cheap
| P/E | 40.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 46× |
| P/FCF | 14.3× |
| Forward P/E | 19.8× |
| EV / EBITDA | 18.6× |
At 40.2× earnings it trades close to the 46× that 25%+ a year of growth would justify. At 14.3× free cash flow it trades well below that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Uber's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $52.0B | $44.0B | $37.3B | $31.9B | $17.5B |
| Change on the year | +18% | +18% | +17% | +83% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $9.8B | $6.9B | $3.4B | $390M | −$743M |
| Of revenue | 19% | 16% | 9% | 1% | −4% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 10.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% | −5.7% | −22.0% |
| Net margin | 19.3% | 22.4% | 5.1% | −28.7% | −2.8% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $7.1B | $5.9B | $4.7B | $4.2B | $4.3B |
| Long-term debt | $10.5B | $8.3B | $9.5B | $9.3B | $9.3B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$3.4B | −$2.5B | −$4.8B | −$5.1B | −$5.0B |
What Uber says it does
Overview Uber Technologies, Inc. (“Uber,” the “Company,” “we,” “our,” or “us”) is a technology platform that uses a massive network, leading technology, operational excellence and product expertise to power movement from point A to point B. We develop and operate proprietary technology applications supporting a variety of offerings on our platform (“platform(s)” or “Platform(s)”). We connect consumers (“Rider(s)”) with independent providers of ride services (“Mobility Driver(s)”) for ridesharing services, and connect Riders and other consumers (“Eater(s)”) with restaurants, grocers and other stores (collectively, “Merchants”) with delivery service providers (“Couriers”) for meal preparation, grocery and other delivery services. Riders and Eaters are collectively referred to as “end-user(s)” or “consumer(s).” Mobility Drivers and Couriers are collectively referred to as “Driver(s).” We also connect consumers with public transportation…
Risk factors UBER lists in its 10-K
- The following are some of these risks, any of which could have an adverse effect on our business financial condition, operating results, or prospects
- Operational and Economic Risks Related to Our Business
- Our business would be adversely affected if Drivers were classified as employees, workers or quasi-employees
- We have incurred significant losses, including in the United States and other major markets. We expect our operating expenses to increase in the foreseeable future, and we may not maintain profitability
- We are making substantial investments in new offerings and technologies, and may increase such investments in the future. These new ventures are inherently risky, and we may never realize any expected benefits from them
- We have limited influence over our minority-owned entities, which subjects us to substantial risks, including potential loss of value
- If our growth slows more significantly than we currently expect, we may not be able to maintain profitability, which would adversely affect our financial results and future prospects
- Our business depends on retaining and attracting high-quality personnel, and continued attrition, future attrition, or unsuccessful succession planning could adversely affect our business
- Cyberattacks, including computer malware, ransomware, viruses, denial of service attacks, account takeovers, spamming, phishing and social engineering attacks could harm our reputation, business, and operating results
- Loss or material modification of our payment acceptance privileges could have an adverse effect on our business and operating results
- Our platform is highly technical, and any undetected errors could adversely affect our business
- We are subject to climate risks, including physical and transitional risks, and if we are unable to manage such risks, our business may be adversely impacted
- Increased attention to, and evolving expectations regarding environmental and social matters may adversely impact our business, reputation and liabilities, including in the context of certain goals we have announced
- Occurrence of a catastrophic event, including but not limited to disease, a weather event, war, or terrorist attack, could adversely impact our business, financial condition and results of operation
- The impact of economic conditions, including the resulting effect on discretionary consumer spending, may harm our business and operating results
- Increases in fuel, food, labor, energy, and other costs due to inflation and other factors could adversely affect our operating results
- The successful operation of our business depends upon the performance and reliability of Internet, mobile, and other infrastructures that are not under our control
- Our business depends upon the interoperability of our platform across devices, operating systems, and third-party applications that we do not control
- We rely on third parties for elements of the payment processing infrastructure underlying our platform. If these third-party elements become unavailable or unavailable on favorable terms, our business could be adversely affected
- Our use of third-party open source software could adversely affect our ability to offer our products and offerings and subjects us to possible litigation
- We will require additional capital to support the growth of our business, and this capital might not be available on reasonable terms or at all
- We may have exposure to materially greater than anticipated tax liabilities
- Changes in global and U.S. tax legislation may adversely affect our financial condition, operating results, and cash flows
- Our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and certain other tax attributes may be limited
- We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates
- If we are unable to successfully identify, acquire and integrate suitable businesses, our operating results and prospects could be harmed, and any businesses we acquire may not perform as expected or be effectively integrated
- We cannot guarantee that our share repurchase program will be fully consummated or that it will enhance long-term stockholder value
- Legal and Regulatory Risks Related to Our Business
- We may continue to be blocked from or limited in providing or operating our products and offerings in certain jurisdictions, and may be required to modify our business model in those jurisdictions as a result
- Our business is subject to numerous legal and regulatory risks that could have an adverse impact on our business and future prospects
- Changes in, or failure to comply with, competition laws could adversely affect our business, financial condition, or operating results
- Our business is subject to extensive government regulation and oversight relating to the provision of payment and financial services
- Adverse litigation judgments or settlements resulting from legal proceedings in which we may be involved could expose us to monetary damages or limit our ability to operate our business
- Drivers may become subject to increased licensing requirements, and we may be required to obtain additional licenses or cap the number of Drivers using our platform
- We may be subject to liability for the means we use to attract and onboard Drivers
- We may be subject to pricing regulations, as well as related litigation or regulatory inquiries
- Our reported financial results may be adversely affected by changes in accounting principles
- If we are deemed an investment company under the Investment Company Act, applicable restrictions could have an adverse effect on our business
- Sales, directly or indirectly, of shares of our common stock by existing stockholders could cause our stock price to decline
- We do not intend to pay cash dividends for the foreseeable future