Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Industrials · $137B market cap · SEC CIK 0000936468
ahead of 37% of the S&P 500 · #50 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 27, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $8.29 in earnings per share.
52-week range $437.25 to $692.00. 13% below its 52-week high and 38% above its low.
The case for LMT
- Earns 79% on shareholder equity, a figure flattered by a small equity base.
- Earnings per share up 57.2%.
- Pays a 2.8% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.09).
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 21.1× earnings, where 3% a year of growth plus a 2.8% dividend would justify about 16×.
- Growth is weak (40/100): revenue +7.9%, EPS +57.2%, +2.8% a year over five years.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 41 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 40 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 51 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 62 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 75 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +7.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +2.8% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $75.0B (+6%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $6.9B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 9% |
| Of profit | 138% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 12% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 12% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 7.5% → 6.7% → 8.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, the debt is manageable
| Cash | $4.1B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $20.5B |
| Net debt | $16.4B |
| Years to repay | 2.4 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 21.1× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 16× |
| P/FCF | 19.9× |
| Forward P/E | 19.4× |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.8× |
At 21.1× earnings it trades above the 16× that 3% a year of growth plus a 2.8% dividend would justify. At 19.9× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Lockheed Martin's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $75.0B | $71.0B | $67.6B | $66.0B | $67.0B |
| Change on the year | +6% | +5% | +2% | −2% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $6.9B | $5.3B | $6.2B | $6.1B | $7.7B |
| Of revenue | 9% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 11% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 13.5% |
| Operating margin | 10.3% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 13.6% |
| Net margin | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $4.1B | $2.5B | $1.4B | $2.5B | $3.6B |
| Long-term debt | $20.5B | $19.6B | $17.3B | $15.4B | $11.7B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$16.4B | −$17.1B | −$15.8B | −$12.9B | −$8.1B |
What Lockheed Martin says it does
We are a global aerospace and defense technology company that builds and sustains the solutions America and its allies need to deter conflict and advance national security and scientific exploration objectives. Our four business areas – Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space – work as one company offering integrated solutions, at scale, across all warfighting domains. Our defense, space, intelligence, homeland security, information technology, and cybersecurity capabilities serve U.S. and international customers in defense, civil and commercial applications. Our principal customers are agencies of the U.S. Government and allies. Recent regional conflicts have demonstrated the integral role Lockheed Martin products play in protecting people, and we are rapidly transforming our business to meet increased demand. We are expanding production capacity to continue delivering at scale, and we are…
Risk factors LMT lists in its 10-K
- Undefinitized Contract Action (UCA)
- Competition and changing customer procurement policies could adversely affect our business and financial results
- Our profitability and cash flow may vary based on the mix of our contracts and programs, our performance, and our ability to estimate and control costs
- Our success depends, in part, on our ability to develop new technologies, products and services and efficiently produce and deliver existing products
- Geopolitical, macroeconomic and public health events and conditions could adversely affect our business, financial condition and operating results
- International sales may pose different economic, regulatory, competition and other risks
- We may be unable to benefit fully from or adequately protect our intellectual property rights or use third-party intellectual property, which could negatively affect our business
- Our business and financial performance depends on us identifying, attracting and retaining a highly skilled workforce
- Cyber-attacks and other security threats and disruptions could have a material adverse effect on our business
- Our estimates and projections may prove to be inaccurate and certain of our assets may be at risk of future impairment
- Changes in tax laws and regulations and interpretations or exposure to additional tax liabilities could adversely affect our financial results
- Our business involves significant risks and uncertainties that may not be covered by indemnity or insurance
- Environmental regulations, including in relation to climate change, could adversely affect our future earnings as well as the affordability of our products and services
- We are involved in a number of legal proceedings. We cannot predict the outcome of litigation and other contingencies with certainty
- There can be no assurance that we will continue to pay or increase our dividend or to repurchase shares of our common stock