Deere & Company (DE)
Industrials · $186B market cap · SEC CIK 0000315189
ahead of 27% of the S&P 500 · #60 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Nov 25, 2026, after the close, with analysts expecting $4.17 in earnings per share.
52-week range $455.91 to $721.22. 5% below its 52-week high and 51% above its low.
The case for DE
- Return on equity of 18%.
- Pays a modest 1.5% dividend.
- Up 47.8% over the past year.
The case against
- Expensive for its growth: 38.2× earnings, where 10% a year of growth plus a 1.5% dividend would justify about 25×.
- Earnings per share fell 5.9%.
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.94).
- Stability is weak (32/100): beta 0.91, a 37% swing over the year, interest covered 3.0 times.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 35 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 43 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 45 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 83 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 32 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +8.0% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +5.2% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $45.7B (−12%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $6.1B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 13% |
| Of profit | 121% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? No, slipping
| Gross margin | 37% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 19% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 13.7% → 11.0% → 10.2% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $8.3B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | n/a |
| Net cash | n/a |
| Years to repay | n/a |
| Debt / equity | 2.28× |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? A bit pricey
| P/E | 38.2× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 25× |
| P/FCF | 30.6× |
| Forward P/E | 29.9× |
| EV / EBITDA | 20.6× |
At 38.2× earnings it trades above the 25× that 10% a year of growth plus a 1.5% dividend would justify. At 30.6× free cash flow it trades above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Deere & Company's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $45.7B | $51.7B | $61.3B | $52.6B | $44.0B |
| Change on the year | −12% | −16% | +16% | +19% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $6.1B | $7.6B | $7.1B | $3.6B | $6.9B |
| Of revenue | 13% | 15% | 12% | 7% | 16% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | — | 17.5% | 21.2% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| Net margin | 11.0% | 13.7% | 16.6% | 13.6% | 13.5% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $8.3B | $7.3B | $7.5B | $4.8B | $8.0B |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | — | $32.9B |
| Net cash (debt) | — | — | — | — | −$24.9B |
What Deere & Company says it does
This Annual Report on Form 10-K contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements provide our current expectations and projections relating to our financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance, and business. You can identify forward-looking statements as they do not relate to historical or current facts and by words such as “believe,” “expect,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “will,” “aim,” “should,” “plan,” “forecast,” “target,” “guide,” “project,” “intend,” “could,” and similar words or expressions. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that we expected. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially…
Risk factors DE lists in its 10-K
- We face risks associated with international, national, and regional trade laws, regulations, and policies that could materially impair our profitability
- Our international operations expose us to risks and events beyond our control in countries in which we operate
- Restructuring, rationalization, and relocation of manufacturing facilities may cause capacity constraints, inventory fluctuations, and other issues
- Inability to accurately forecast customer demand for products and services, and to adequately manage inventory, could adversely affect our operating results
- Failure by our supply base to use ethical business practices and comply with applicable laws and regulations may adversely affect our business, financial condition, and operational results
- Unexpected events have increased and may in the future increase our cost of doing business or disrupt our operations
- Changes in interest rates or market liquidity conditions, as well as changes in government banking, monetary and fiscal policies, could adversely affect our financials and our earnings and/or cash flows
- Because the financial services segment provides financing for a significant portion of our sales worldwide, negative economic conditions in the financial industry could materially impact our operations and financial results
- Changes in tax rates, tax legislation, or exposure to additional tax liabilities could have a negative effect on our business
- We may not realize the anticipated benefits of our Smart Industrial Operating Model and Leap Ambitions
- The introduction of new products and technologies involves risk, and, from time to time, we may fail to realize their anticipated benefits
- From time to time our equipment fails to perform as expected and we have experienced, and may in the future experience, warranty claims, post-sale repairs and recalls, and other consequences
- We may not realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions, joint ventures, and divestitures, or these benefits may take longer to realize than expected
- Our reputation and brand could be damaged by negative publicity
- Our ability to attract, develop, engage, and retain qualified employees could affect our ability to execute our strategy
- Our business may be adversely affected by any disruptions caused by union activities
- Any unauthorized control or manipulation of our products’ systems could result in a loss of confidence in us and our products
- Technical or regulatory limitations may impact our ability to effectively implement automation, autonomy, and artificial intelligence solutions
- Disruption of our technology systems or unexpected network interruption could disrupt our business
- Our global operations are subject to complex and changing laws and regulations, the violation of which could expose us to potential liabilities, increased costs, and other adverse effects
- Legal proceedings, disputes and government inquiries and investigations could harm our business, financial condition, reputation, and brand
- Our business could be adversely affected by the infringement or loss of intellectual property rights