Boeing (BA)
Industrials · $137B market cap · SEC CIK 0000012927
ahead of 5% of the S&P 500 · #75 of 79 in Industrials
Next reports on Jan 25, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting −$0.84 in earnings per share.
52-week range $165.01 to $254.35. 32% below its 52-week high and 5% above its low.
The case for BA
- Revenue growing 17.5% year over year.
- Reasonably priced for its growth: 17.8× earnings, where 12% a year of growth would justify about 26×.
The case against
- Burned $1.9B of free cash in FY2025.
- Long-term debt of $53.8B would take 51 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Operating profit covers its interest bill only 2.0 times.
- Near the bottom of its 52-week range, 32% below the high. Falling prices usually have a reason; find it first.
- Free-cash-flow yield of −1.4% is lower than 99% of Industrials companies.
- Trailed the S&P 500 by 24 points over the past year.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Industrials companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 34 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 69 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 19 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 18 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 20 |
- Equity is a sliver of assets, so return on assets stands in for return on equity, and price-to-book and debt-to-equity are left out.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 79 Industrials companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +17.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.8% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $89.5B (+34%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$1.9B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −2% |
| Of profit | −84% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 9% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 10% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | −17.8% → 2.5% → 8.1% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $10.9B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $53.8B |
| Net debt | $42.9B |
| Years to repay | 50.6 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Mixed: cheap on earnings, dear on cash
| P/E | 17.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 26× |
| P/FCF | no free cash flow |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.4× |
At 17.8× earnings it trades below the 26× that 12% a year of growth would justify. Its free cash flow is negative, which counts against it.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Boeing's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $89.5B | $66.5B | $77.8B | $66.6B | $62.3B |
| Change on the year | +34% | −14% | +17% | +7% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$1.9B | −$14.3B | $4.4B | $2.3B | −$4.4B |
| Of revenue | −2% | −22% | 6% | 3% | −7% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 4.8% | −3.0% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% |
| Operating margin | 4.8% | −16.1% | −1.0% | −5.3% | −4.6% |
| Net margin | 2.5% | −17.8% | −2.9% | −7.4% | −6.7% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $10.9B | $13.8B | $12.7B | $14.6B | $8.1B |
| Long-term debt | $53.8B | $53.6B | $52.1B | $56.8B | $57.9B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$42.9B | −$39.8B | −$39.4B | −$42.2B | −$49.9B |
What Boeing says it does
The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries (herein referred to as “Boeing,” the “Company,” “we,” “us,” “our”), is one of the world’s major aerospace firms. We are organized based on the products and services we offer. We operate in three reportable segments: • Commercial Airplanes (BCA); • Defense, Space & Security (BDS); • Global Services (BGS). Commercial Airplanes Segment This segment develops, produces and markets commercial jet aircraft principally to the commercial airline industry worldwide. We are a leading producer of commercial aircraft and offer a family of commercial jetliners designed to meet a broad spectrum of global passenger and cargo requirements of airlines. This family of commercial jet aircraft in production includes the 737 narrow-body model and the 767, 777 and 787 wide-body models. Development continues on the 777X program and the 737-7 and 737-10 derivatives. Defense, Space & Security Segment This…
Risk factors BA lists in its 10-K
- We depend heavily on commercial airlines, subjecting us to unique risks
- Market conditions have a significant impact on demand for our commercial aircraft and related services
- We enter into firm fixed-price aircraft sales contracts with indexed price escalation clauses, which subjects us to losses if we have cost overruns or if increases in our costs exceed the applicable escalation rate
- We derive a significant portion of our revenues from a limited number of commercial airlines
- We must minimize disruption caused by production changes, achieve and maintain operational stability and implement productivity improvements to meet customer demand and maintain our profitability
- If our commercial aircraft fail to satisfy performance and reliability requirements and/or potentially required sustainability standards, we could face additional costs and/or lower revenues
- Competition within our markets and with respect to our products and services may reduce our future contracts and sales
- We derive a significant portion of our revenues from non-U.S. sales and are subject to the risks of doing business in other countries, including those related to tariffs, trade restrictions and government actions
- We use estimates and make assumptions in accounting for contracts and programs. Changes in our estimates and/or assumptions could adversely affect our future financial results
- We may not realize the anticipated benefits of mergers, acquisitions, joint ventures/strategic alliances or divestitures
- We conduct a significant portion of our business pursuant to U.S. government contracts, which are subject to unique risks
- Our sales to the U.S. government are subject to extensive procurement regulations, and changes to those regulations could increase our costs
- The U.S. government may modify, curtail or terminate one or more of our contracts
- We are subject to U.S. government inquiries and investigations, including periodic audits of costs that we determine are reimbursable under U.S. government contracts
- Our fixed-price contracts subject us to losses when we have cost overruns
- We enter into cost-type contracts, which also carry risks
- We enter into contracts that include in-orbit incentive payments that subject us to risks
- Managing a complex, global IT infrastructure exposes us to a variety of risks that could negatively impact our business
- Compromised or unauthorized access of our, our customers’ and/or our suppliers’ systems or data could negatively impact our business
- Business disruptions could seriously affect our future sales and financial condition or increase our costs and expenses
- Our operations expose us to the risk of material environmental liabilities
- We may be adversely affected by global climate change or by legal, regulatory or market responses to such change
- We may be unable to effectively manage our liquidity, which could adversely affect our business, financial position and results of operations
- Substantial pension and other postretirement benefit obligations have a material impact on our earnings, shareholders’ equity and cash flows from operations, and could have significant adverse impacts in future periods
- Our insurance coverage may be inadequate to cover all significant risk exposures
- Our common stock ranks junior to the Mandatory convertible preferred stock with respect to dividends and amounts payable in the event of our liquidation, dissolution or winding-up of our affairs