Airbnb (ABNB)
Consumer Discretionary · $111B market cap · SEC CIK 0001559720
ahead of 99% of the S&P 500 · #1 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Feb 10, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.84 in earnings per share.
52-week range $110.81 to $193.45. 3% below its 52-week high and 69% above its low.
The case for ABNB
- Earns 39% back on shareholder equity.
- 23% of revenue drops through to net profit.
- Holds more cash ($6.6B) than long-term debt ($0).
- Revenue growing 16.7% year over year.
- Earnings per share up 27.2%.
- Has compounded revenue at 29.4% a year over five years.
The case against
- Growth is slowing: revenue up 16.7% this year against 29.4% a year over five.
- P/E of 34.5× is higher than 85% of Consumer Discretionary companies.
- Price/sales of 7.9× is higher than 98% of Consumer Discretionary companies.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 62 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 86 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 86 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 82 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 62 |
- Capital spending is missing from its filings, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow stands in for the cash test, against a stricter bar.
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Yes
| Last 12 months | +16.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +29.4% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.2B (+10%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Can't tell: no capital spending in its filings
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $4.6B |
|---|---|
| Of profit, before capital spending | 185% |
Its filings do not give capital spending, so free cash flow cannot be worked out. Operating cash flow, which is before that spending, is shown instead, and the score judges it against a stricter bar.
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 73% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 22% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 23.9% → 20.5% → 23.0% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Yes, more cash than debt
| Cash | $6.6B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $0 |
| Net cash | $6.6B |
| Years to repay | 0.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 34.5× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 46× |
| P/FCF | n/a |
| Forward P/E | 27.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 33.7× |
At 34.5× earnings it trades below the 46× that 25%+ a year of growth would justify.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Airbnb's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $12.2B | $11.1B | $9.9B | $8.4B | $6.0B |
| Change on the year | +10% | +12% | +18% | +40% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | $3.4B | $2.3B |
| Of revenue | — | — | — | 41% | 38% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 20.8% | 23.0% | 15.3% | 21.5% | 7.2% |
| Net margin | 20.5% | 23.9% | 48.3% | 22.5% | −5.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $6.6B | $6.9B | $6.9B | $7.4B | $6.1B |
| Long-term debt | $0 | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.0B |
| Net cash (debt) | $6.6B | $4.9B | $4.9B | $5.4B | $4.1B |
What Airbnb says it does
Overview Airbnb was founded in 2007 when two hosts welcomed three guests to their San Francisco home, and has since grown into a global community of over 5 million hosts who have welcomed over 2.5 billion guest arrivals in almost every country and region across the globe. Every day, hosts offer unique stays, experiences, and services that enable guests to connect with communities in a more authentic way. We operate a global marketplace connecting guests with stays, experiences, and services, collectively in over 220 countries and regions. Our offerings have expanded to include services and redesigned experiences, which launched in May 2025. We operate with five key stakeholders in mind: our employees, shareholders, hosts, guests, and the communities we serve. Our commitment to making long-term decisions that benefit all these stakeholders is fundamental to our sustained success. Our Long-Term Growth Strategy Our key strategic…
Risk factors ABNB lists in its 10-K
- We may not be able to sustain our revenue growth rate or effectively manage growth or new opportunities
- If we are unable to successfully expand our global network or manage the risks presented by our business model internationally, our business, results of operations, and financial condition would be materially adversely affected
- Any decline or disruption in the travel and hospitality industries or economic downturn could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- The business and industry in which we participate are highly competitive, and we may be unable to compete successfully with our current or future competitors
- Our failure to properly manage funds held on behalf of customers could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- If one or more of our counterparty financial institutions default on their financial or performance obligations to us or fail, we may incur significant losses or be unable to process payment transactions
- The failure to successfully execute and integrate acquisitions could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- Our results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected by changes in accounting principles
- Our business depends on attracting and retaining capable management and employees, and the loss of any key personnel could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- We are subject to risks associated with the physical impacts of climate change as well as various efforts to transition to a low-carbon society
- We may experience significant fluctuations in our results of operations, which make it difficult to forecast our future results
- A significant portion of our bookings and revenue are denominated in foreign currencies, and our financial results are exposed to changes in foreign exchange rates
- Changes in tax laws or tax rulings could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition
- We may have exposure to greater than anticipated income tax liabilities
- Uncertainty in the application of taxes to our hosts, guests, or platform could increase our tax liabilities and may discourage hosts and guests from conducting business on our platform
- Our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and certain other tax attributes may be limited
- Compliance with Laws and Regulations, Litigation and Disputes
- We are subject to a wide variety of laws, regulations
- Regulatory Inquiries, Litigation, and Disputes
- We offer travel insurance products to guests, which subject us and our business to extensive laws, regulations, and supervision
- Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing
- We are subject to payment network rules
- and any material modification of our payment card acceptance privileges could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- Avoiding regulation under the Investment Company Act may adversely affect our operations
- Evolving focus on environmental, social, and governance issues by shareholders, customers, regulators, politicians, employees, and other stakeholders may impose additional risks and costs on our business
- Claims for indemnification by our directors and officers may reduce our available funds to satisfy successful third-party claims against us and may reduce the amount of money available to us
- We have operations in countries known to experience high levels of corruption
- and any violation of anti-corruption laws could subject us to penalties and other adverse consequences
- Technology, Data Privacy and Cybersecurity
- IT System capacity constraints or system or other operational failures could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- If we do not adequately protect our intellectual property and our data, then our business, results of operations, and financial condition could be materially adversely affected
- We could face liability for information or content on or accessible through our platform
- Measures that we are taking to improve the trust and safety of our platform may cause us to incur significant expenditures and may not be successful
- We are subject to payment-related fraud
- and an increase in or failure to deal effectively with fraud, fraudulent activities, fictitious transactions, or illegal transactions would materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition
- Our use of third-party open source software and our open source contributions could adversely affect our ability to offer or protect our platform and services and subject us to costly litigation and other disputes
- Our share price has been, and may continue to be, volatile, and the value of our Class A common stock may decline
- Our multi-series structure may have a material adverse effect on the market price of our Class A common stock
- We cannot guarantee that our share repurchase programs will be utilized to the full value approved or that it will enhance long-term stockholder value
- Anti-takeover provisions contained in our restated certificate of incorporation and amended and restated bylaws, as well as provisions of Delaware law, could impair a takeover attempt