Tesla (TSLA)

Consumer Discretionary · $1.50T market cap · SEC CIK 0001318605

Next reports on Jan 26, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.46 in earnings per share.

52-week range $297.38 to $498.83. 24% below its 52-week high and 28% above its low.

The case for TSLA

• Holds more cash ($16.5B) than long-term debt ($6.6B).
• Revenue growing 8.3% year over year.
• Has compounded revenue at 24.6% a year over five years.

The case against

• Expensive for its growth: 466.9× earnings, where 24% a year of growth would justify about 44×.
• Earnings per share down 39.2%.
• Priced at 14.5× sales, which leaves no room for a stumble.
• Return on equity of only 4%.
• Growth is slowing: revenue up 8.3% this year against 24.6% a year over five.
• Net margin of 3.1% leaves very little room for error.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Tesla's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Tesla says it does

Overview We are focused on bringing artificial intelligence (“AI”) into the real world, through products and services like Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) (Supervised) and Robotaxi, as well as working to develop and commercialize AI robots (“Bots”) (including Optimus). We intend to leverage our current operations, in which we design, develop, manufacture, sell and lease high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems that increasingly deliver AI-related and enhanced software and services to our customers, to achieve that objective. We generally sell our products directly to customers, and continue to grow our global retail, service and charging footprint to accelerate the widespread adoption of our products. We emphasize performance, attractive styling and the safety of our users and workforce in the design and manufacture of our products and are continuing to develop full self-driving technology for…

Risk factors TSLA lists in its 10-K

• We may experience issues or delays in developing, launching and ramping the production of our products, services and features, or we may be unable to control our manufacturing costs
• Our suppliers may fail to deliver components according to schedules, prices, quality and volumes that are acceptable to us, or we may be unable to manage these components effectively
• We may be unable to grow our global product sales, delivery and installation capabilities and our servicing and vehicle charging networks, or we may be unable to accurately project and effectively manage our growth
• We will need to maintain and significantly grow our access to battery cells, including through the development and manufacture of our own cells, and control our related costs
• Our future growth and success are dependent upon demand for our electric vehicles and adoption of autonomous driving solutions
• We face strong competition for our products and services from a growing list of established and new competitors
• Growth of our business is also dependent upon our ability to develop and commercialize Bots, including Optimus, which is in a nascent industry that has yet to develop commercially
• We may experience issues with lithium-ion cells or other components manufactured at our Gigafactories, which may harm the production and profitability of our vehicle and energy storage products
• We face risks associated with maintaining and expanding our international operations, including unfavorable and uncertain regulatory, political, economic, tax and labor conditions
• Our business may suffer if our products or features contain defects, fail to perform as expected or take longer than expected to become fully functional
• We may be required to defend or insure against product liability claims
• We will need to maintain public credibility and confidence in our long-term business prospects in order to succeed
• We may be unable to effectively grow, or manage the compliance, residual value, financing and credit risks related to, our various financing programs
• If we are unable to attract, hire and retain key employees and qualified personnel, our ability to compete may be harmed
• We are highly dependent on the services of Elon Musk, Technoking of Tesla and our Chief Executive Officer
• Any unauthorized control or manipulation of our products’ systems could result in loss of confidence in us and our products
• Our business may be adversely affected by any disruptions caused by union activities
• We may choose to or be compelled to undertake product recalls or take other similar actions
• Our current and future warranty reserves may be insufficient to cover future warranty claims
• Our insurance coverage strategy may not be adequate to protect us from all business risks
• Our debt agreements contain covenant restrictions that may limit our ability to operate our business
• Additional funds may not be available to us when we need or want them
• We may be negatively impacted by any early obsolescence of our manufacturing and other equipment
• There is no guarantee that we will have sufficient cash flow from our business to pay our indebtedness or that we will not incur additional indebtedness
• We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates
• We may not be able to adequately protect or defend ourselves against intellectual property infringement claims, which may be time-consuming and expensive, or affect the freedom to operate our business
• Our operations could be adversely affected by events outside of our control, such as natural disasters, wars or health epidemics
• Demand for our products and services may be impacted by the status of government and economic incentives supporting the development and adoption of such products
• We are subject to evolving laws and regulations that could impose substantial costs, legal prohibitions or unfavorable changes upon our operations or products
• Any failure by us to comply with a variety of U.S. and international privacy and consumer protection laws may harm us
• We could be subject to liability, penalties and other restrictive sanctions and adverse consequences arising out of certain governmental investigations and proceedings
• We may face regulatory challenges to or limitations on our ability to sell vehicles directly
• The trading price of our common stock is likely to continue to be volatile
• Our financial results may vary significantly from period to period due to fluctuations in our operating costs and other factors
• We may fail to meet our publicly announced guidance or other expectations about our business, which could cause our stock price to decline
• Anti-takeover provisions contained in our governing documents, applicable laws and certain of our debt facilities could impair a takeover attempt

Filings

Other Consumer Discretionary companies