Home Depot (HD)
Consumer Discretionary · $353B market cap · SEC CIK 0000354950
ahead of 24% of the S&P 500 · #37 of 48 in Consumer Discretionary
Next reports on Nov 17, 2026, before the open, with analysts expecting $3.95 in earnings per share.
52-week range $277.15 to $397.63. 12% below its 52-week high and 27% above its low.
The case for HD
- Earns 103% on shareholder equity, a figure flattered by a small equity base.
- Pays a 2.7% dividend while you wait.
The case against
- Pricey for its growth: 24.8× earnings, where 4% a year of growth plus a 2.7% dividend would justify about 17×.
- Priced at 20× book value. Very little hard asset backing here.
- Long-term debt of $49.4B against $1.4B of cash.
- Revenue grew only 2.5%, roughly the pace of inflation.
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Consumer Discretionary companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 29 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 27 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 59 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 51 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 69 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 48 Consumer Discretionary companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? Slowly
| Last 12 months | +2.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +4.5% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $165B (+3%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? Yes
| FY2025 free cash flow | $12.6B |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | 8% |
| Of profit | 89% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Holding steady
| Gross margin | 33% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 12% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 9.3% → 8.6% → 8.4% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Mostly, with some debt to carry
| Cash | $1.4B |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $49.4B |
| Net debt | $48.0B |
| Years to repay | 3.0 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? No, expensive
| P/E | 24.8× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 17× |
| P/FCF | 27.9× |
| Forward P/E | 21.0× |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.5× |
At 24.8× earnings it trades above the 17× that 4% a year of growth plus a 2.7% dividend would justify. At 27.9× free cash flow it trades well above that same mark.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Home Depot's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $165B | $160B | $153B | $157B | $151B |
| Change on the year | +3% | +4% | −3% | +4% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | $12.6B | $16.3B | $17.9B | $11.5B | $14.0B |
| Of revenue | 8% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 9% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Gross margin | 33.3% | 33.4% | 33.4% | 33.5% | 33.6% |
| Operating margin | 12.7% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 15.3% | 15.2% |
| Net margin | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $1.4B | $1.7B | $3.8B | $2.8B | $2.3B |
| Long-term debt | $49.4B | $51.4B | $42.1B | $41.1B | $36.4B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$48.0B | −$49.7B | −$38.4B | −$38.4B | −$34.1B |
What Home Depot says it does
INTRODUCTION The Home Depot, Inc. is the world’s largest home improvement retailer based on net sales for fiscal 2025. We offer our customers a wide assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, décor products, and facilities MRO products, in stores and online. We also provide a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. As of the end of fiscal 2025, we o perated 2,359 stor es located throughout the U.S. (including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam), Canada, and Mexico. The Home Depot stores average approximately 104,000 square feet of enclosed space, with approximately 24,000 additional square feet of outside garden area. We also maintain a network of distribution and fulfillment centers, as well as mobile applications and e-commerce websites in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. For…
Risk factors HD lists in its 10-K
- Strong competition could adversely affect prices and demand for our products and services and could decrease our market share
- We may not timely identify or effectively respond to customer needs, expectations or trends, which could adversely affect our relationship with our customers, the demand for our products and services, and our market share
- The execution of initiatives to deliver our interconnected experience could adversely impact our business operations or financial results, and these initiatives might not provide the anticipated benefits
- Our strategic transactions involve risks, which could have an adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations, and we may not realize the anticipated benefits of these transactions
- A failure of one or more key elements of our technology infrastructure, including associated systems or processes, could adversely affect our business, financial results, and reputation
- Disruptions in our customer-facing technology infrastructure could impair our interconnected experience strategy and give rise to negative customer experiences, damage our brand and reputation and adversely impact our sales
- Disruptions in our supply chain and other factors affecting the availability and distribution of our merchandise could adversely impact our business, financial results, and reputation
- Failure to maintain a safe and secure shopping and working environment may adversely impact sales, costs, the customer and associate experience, and our brand and reputation
- Our success depends upon our ability to attract, develop and retain highly qualified associates to provide excellent customer service and to support our strategic initiatives while also controlling our labor costs
- We are subject to payment-related risks that could increase our operating costs, expose us to fraud or theft, subject us to potential liability, and potentially disrupt our business
- Our proprietary products subject us to certain increased risks, including regulatory, product liability, intellectual property, supplier relations, and reputational risks
- If we are unable to effectively manage our installation services business, we could lose sales and be subject to fines, lawsuits, reputational damage or the loss of our general contractor licenses
- Our costs of doing business could increase as a result of changes in, expanded enforcement of, or adoption of new federal, state, local or international laws, regulations and executive orders
- If we cannot successfully manage the challenges presented by operating in international markets, we may not be successful in our international operations and our sales and profitability may be negatively impacted
- The inflation or deflation of commodity and other prices could affect our prices, demand for our products, our sales and our profit margins
- We may incur property, casualty or other losses not covered by our insurance
- Changes in accounting standards and subjective assumptions, estimates and judgments by management related to complex accounting matters could significantly affect our financial results or financial condition