Ameren (AEE)
Utilities · $31.4B market cap · SEC CIK 0001002910
ahead of 60% of the S&P 500 · #11 of 31 in Utilities
Next reports on Feb 9, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $0.70 in earnings per share.
52-week range $96.57 to $118.32. 4% below its 52-week high and 18% above its low.
The case for AEE
- Pays a 3.3% dividend while you wait.
- Moves less than the market (beta 0.41).
The case against
- Burned $775M of free cash in FY2025.
- Long-term debt of $18.2B would take 5 years of operating cash flow to repay.
- Revenue was flat on the year (−0.3%).
- Current liabilities exceed current assets (ratio 0.74).
What the score is made of
Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.
| Valuewhat you pay for the earnings and cash, against the growth you get | 52 |
|---|---|
| Growthhow fast revenue and earnings are moving, this year and over five | 55 |
| Profitabilityhow much of the revenue becomes profit, and how much of that is cash | 53 |
| Momentumhow the price has behaved lately | 66 |
| Stabilityhow violently it moves, what it owes and what it pays you | 77 |
- Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.
The financials
Revenue growth
Is the business growing? No, flat
| Last 12 months | −0.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 5 years | +8.7% a year |
| FY2025 revenue | $8.8B (+15%) |
Free cash flow
Is it generating real cash? No, it is burning cash
| FY2025 free cash flow | −$775M |
|---|---|
| Of revenue | −9% |
| Of profit | −53% |
Profit margins
Is profitability improving? Yes, improving
| Gross margin | 43% |
|---|---|
| Operating margin | 25% |
| Net margin, FY24 → FY25 → now | 15.6% → 16.6% → 17.9% |
Debt vs. cash
Is the balance sheet healthy? Stretched
| Cash | $13.0M |
|---|---|
| Long-term debt | $18.2B |
| Net debt | $18.2B |
| Years to repay | 5.4 yrs |
Valuation
Is the stock price reasonable? Yes, about fair
| P/E | 19.6× |
|---|---|
| Fair P/E for its growth | 22× |
| Forward P/E | 19.3× |
| EV / EBITDA | 13.8× |
At 19.6× earnings it trades close to the 22× that 6% a year of growth plus a 3.3% dividend would justify. As a utility it is judged on earnings alone: it borrows to build, so its free cash flow says little about its price.
The financials, five years deep
Pulled from Ameren's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | |||||
| Revenue | $8.8B | $7.6B | $7.5B | $8.0B | $6.4B |
| Change on the year | +15% | +2% | −6% | +24% | — |
| Free cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow | −$775M | −$1.6B | −$1.0B | −$1.1B | −$1.8B |
| Of revenue | −9% | −20% | −14% | −14% | −28% |
| Profit margins | |||||
| Operating margin | 23.0% | 19.9% | 20.8% | 19.0% | 20.8% |
| Net margin | 16.6% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 15.6% |
| Debt vs. cash | |||||
| Cash | $13.0M | $7.0M | $25.0M | $10.0M | $8.0M |
| Long-term debt | $18.2B | $17.3B | $15.1B | $13.7B | $12.6B |
| Net cash (debt) | −$18.2B | −$17.3B | −$15.1B | −$13.7B | −$12.6B |
What Ameren says it does
Ameren, formed in 1997 and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is a public utility holding company whose primary assets are its equity interests in its subsidiaries. Ameren’s subsidiaries are separate, independent legal entities with separate businesses, assets, and liabilities. Dividends on Ameren’s common stock and the payment of expenses by Ameren depend on distributions made to it by its subsidiaries. Below is a summary description of Ameren’s principal subsidiaries – Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois, and ATXI. Ameren also has other subsidiaries that conduct other activities, such as providing shared services. A more detailed description can be found in Note 1 – Summary of Significant Accounting Policies under Part II, Item 8, of this report. • Ameren Missouri operates a rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution business and a rate-regulated natural gas distribution business in Missouri. • Ameren Illinois…
Risk factors AEE lists in its 10-K
- We are subject to extensive regulation of our businesses
- We are subject to business and financial risks related to the impact of climate-related legislation, regulation, and emission reduction initiatives
- We are subject to regulatory compliance and proceedings, which could result in increasing costs, regulatory penalties, and/or other sanctions
- Our electric generation and electric and natural gas transmission and distribution facilities, including natural gas storage facilities, are subject to operational risks
- Ameren Missouri’s ability to obtain an adequate supply of coal could limit operation of its coal-fired energy centers
- Ameren Missouri’s ownership and operation of a nuclear energy center creates business, financial, and waste disposal risks
- Realized energy demand from current and potential new customers may differ significantly from forecasts
- Energy conservation, energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage, technological advances, and other factors could reduce energy demand from our existing customers
- Ameren’s holding company structure could limit its ability to pay common stock dividends and to service its debt obligations
- We are subject to employee workforce factors that could adversely affect our operations
- Our operations are subject to acts of sabotage, terrorism, cyber attacks, and other disruptive acts
- Our businesses are dependent on our ability to access the capital and credit markets successfully. We might not have access to sufficient capital on reasonable terms, and in the amounts and at the times needed