Vistra (VST)

Utilities · $44.2B market cap · SEC CIK 0001692819

Next reports on Feb 24, 2027, after the close, with analysts expecting $2.11 in earnings per share.

52-week range $110.89 to $196.80. 33% below its 52-week high and 18% above its low.

The case for VST

• Revenue up 22.8% on the year.
• Earns 48% back on shareholder equity.
• Earnings per share up 140.4%.
• Reasonably priced for its growth: 16.3× earnings, where 8%+ a year of growth plus a 2.4% dividend would justify about 24×.
• Has compounded revenue at 10.1% a year over five years.
• Pays a modest 2.4% dividend.

The case against

• Down 29.9% over the past year.
• Operating profit covers its interest bill only 2.0 times.
• Long-term debt of $17.0B against $785M of cash.

What the score is made of

Each factor is half a curve over reported figures and half a rank among the other Utilities companies (momentum is judged against fixed thresholds only), and the five are blended by weight. The score is where that blend places it in the S&P 500. It describes the last filing and the current price. It is not a forecast.

• Each factor except momentum is half fixed thresholds, half rank among the 31 Utilities companies.

The financials

The financials, five years deep

Pulled from Vistra's XBRL filings on SEC EDGAR. Italic rows are worked out from the others.

What Vistra says it does

References in this report to "we," "our," "us," and "the Company" are to Vistra and/or its subsidiaries, as apparent in the context. See Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations for defined terms. General Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company that provides essential power resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. We combine an innovative, customer-centric approach to retail sales with safe, reliable, diverse, and efficient power generation. Our integrated power generation and wholesale operation allows us to efficiently obtain the electricity needed to serve our customers at the lowest cost. The integrated model enables us to structure products and contracts in a way that offers significant value compared to stand-alone retail electric providers. The Company brings its products and services to market in 18 states and the District of Columbia, including all major…

Risk factors VST lists in its 10-K

• Our revenues, results of operations and operating cash flows generally are affected by price fluctuations in the wholesale power market and other market factors beyond our control
• Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition, and Results of Operations – Business Environment and Outlook
• Economic downturns would likely have a material adverse effect on our businesses"
• We have retired, announced planned retirements of, and may be forced to retire or idle additional underperforming generation units which could result in significant costs and have an adverse effect on our operating results
• We do not apply hedge accounting to our commodity derivative transactions, which may cause increased volatility in our quarterly and annual financial results
• We may not be able to consummate the Cogentrix Transactions on the anticipated terms, on the anticipated timeline, or at all, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operation and stock price
• Following the completion of the Cogentrix Transactions, we may not realize the anticipated synergies and other expected benefits of the Cogentrix Transactions on the anticipated timeline or at all
• Circumstances associated with potential divestitures could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition
• If our goodwill, intangible assets, or long-lived assets become impaired, we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings
• Issuances or acquisitions of our common stock, or sales or dispositions of our common stock by stockholders, that result in an ownership change as defined in Internal Revenue Code (IRC)
• 382 could further limit our ability to use certain tax attributes and our federal net operating losses to offset our future taxable income
• We are required to obtain, and to comply with, government permits and approvals
• Our cost of compliance with existing and new environmental laws could have a material adverse effect on us
• Luminant's mining operations are subject to RCT oversight
• Luminant's lignite mining reclamation activity will require significant resources as existing and retired mining operations are reclaimed over the next several years
• Litigation, legal proceedings, regulatory investigations or other administrative proceedings could expose us to significant liabilities and reputational damage that could have a material adverse effect on us
• Volatile power supply costs and demand for power have and could in the future adversely affect the financial performance of our retail businesses
• Our retail operations are subject to significant competition from other REPs, which could result in a loss of existing customers and the inability to attract new customers
• Cybersecurity attacks or technology systems failures could disrupt business operations and expose us to significant liabilities, reputational damage, loss of customers, and regulatory action
• We may suffer material losses, costs and liabilities due to operation risks, regulatory risks, and the risk of nuclear accidents arising from the ownership and operation of the nuclear generation facilities
• Decommissioning Obligation and Funding
• The availability and cost of emission allowances could adversely impact our costs of operations
• We have been and may in the future be materially and adversely affected by the effects of extreme weather conditions and seasonality
• Events outside of our control, including an epidemic or outbreak of an infectious disease may materially adversely affect our business
• Changes in technology, increased electricity conservation efforts, or energy sustainability efforts may reduce the value of our business, introduce new or emerging risks, and may otherwise have a material adverse effect on us
• We may potentially be affected by emerging technologies that may over time affect change in capacity markets and the energy industry overall
• The loss of the services of our "key" management and personnel could adversely affect our ability to successfully operate our businesses
• We could be materially and adversely impacted by strikes or work stoppages by our unionized employees
• Vistra is a holding company and its ability to obtain funds from its subsidiaries is structurally subordinated to existing and future liabilities of its subsidiaries
• We may not pay any dividends on our common stock in the future, and we may not realize the anticipated benefits of our share repurchase program
• Holders of our preferred stock may have interests and rights that are different from our common stockholders

Filings

Other Utilities companies